Opening Prices – Tuesday Morning Snapshot from Chicago

Wheat (September 2025 Contract)

CBOT wheat futures opened at $5.30¾ per bushel, down 7¾ cents from Monday’s close. The downward pressure stems from weak export inspections and a drop in spring wheat conditions. With the U.S. winter wheat harvest reaching 80%, just 1 point behind the seasonal norm, the market continues to digest sluggish export data and the spring crop’s deteriorating quality—only 49% of it rated good/excellent.

Corn (September 2025 Contract)

Corn futures began the day at $3.92¾ per bushel, slipping a penny below Monday’s close. The market remains bearish amid strong weekly exports and ongoing sales to key Asian markets. However, U.S. crop progress reveals slight slippage in crop condition (now 73% good/excellent), while Argentine tax cuts and upcoming tenders from South Korea and Taiwan may inject near-term volatility.

Soybeans (August 2025 Contract)

Soybean futures opened lower at $9.86½ per bushel, extending a two-week downward trend. Market sentiment is heavily influenced by China’s ongoing soymeal surplus, which threatens to weaken fourth-quarter soybean demand—historically the peak season for U.S. exports. Despite improved crop ratings in the U.S. and a 9% rise in weekly inspections, concerns over China’s inventory buildup are casting a shadow on bullish sentiment.

Key Global Grain Market Developments

China’s Soymeal Surplus Threatens U.S. Q4 Export Season

China’s record soybean imports earlier in 2025 have led to a significant build-up of soymeal inventories, with prices dropping 6.5% year-on-year. As crushers face financial losses, analysts warn that fourth-quarter soybean purchases may fall below expectations. The delay in Q4 U.S. cargo bookings amid trade tensions and weak demand signals a troubling outlook for American exporters during their most crucial season.

Argentina Soy Exports to Resume After Formal Tax Cut

Argentina's soy complex is expected to resume exports as soon as the government’s announced tax cuts are formalized in the official gazette. The CIARA-CEC grains processing association confirmed that sales have stalled since July 1 but are set to rebound. The permanent tax cut—down to 26% for soybeans and 24.5% for meal and oil—is meant to improve competitiveness. Farmers, however, sold significantly less in mid-July versus the end of June, when they rushed to benefit from a temporary cut.

Brazil’s Wheat Planting Nearly Complete, Liquidity Low

Brazil’s wheat planting nears completion, with 96.9% of the area already seeded. Yet liquidity remains low in the spot market, as sellers focus on fieldwork and buyers eye global markets instead. Prices in the wholesale market declined slightly, while over-the-counter payments to farmers were mixed. Weather conditions remain favorable, particularly in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, supporting good crop development.

Argentine Corn Exports Accelerate Post-Tax Shift

Corn futures remain under pressure as Argentina’s tax cut from 12% to 9.5% is expected to encourage increased exports. USDA data confirmed strong U.S. corn inspections at 1.522 million tons, up over 54% week-on-week. Japan and Mexico remained top destinations. Private purchases from South Korea (132,000 MT) and an open tender from Taiwan highlight robust Asian demand despite bearish futures sentiment.

U.S. Crop Progress Shows Steady Conditions, Modest Weather Support

U.S. crop condition ratings held relatively steady: corn at 73% and soybeans improving to 70% good/excellent. Rainfall and cooling temperatures in the Midwest and Plains are replenishing soil moisture and providing modest relief after earlier stress. The improved outlook, however, is tempered by localized extremes and ongoing heat risks in the South.

Malaysian Palm Oil Sees Mild Rebound, Influencing Vegoil Markets

Malaysian palm oil futures rose slightly, up 12 ringgit overnight. This movement reflects optimism for export recovery in the second half of 2025, spurred by festival demand from India and reduced import duties. While India’s policy shifts on crude palm oil taxes remain a headwind, the rebound supports broader oilseed market sentiment, especially in Asia.

Futures and Open Interest Show Shifting Sentiment

Preliminary changes in futures open interest highlight a mixed market dynamic. Soybeans saw a sharp drop of over 26,500 contracts—suggesting long liquidation. Wheat futures gained slightly in Chicago but remained under pressure in Kansas City and Minneapolis. Corn open interest increased by nearly 7,000 contracts, pointing to new short positions. Overall, grain futures continue to experience volatility from macroeconomic and export-driven factors.

Trade Watch: U.S.–China Negotiations in Stockholm Continue

As traders monitor Q4 soybean bookings, attention remains on diplomatic talks in Stockholm aiming to resolve key trade disputes between the U.S. and China. The outcome may heavily influence China's import behavior and overall global agricultural trade flows in the coming months, especially for oilseeds and feed grains.