Monday’s session closed with broad gains across the grain complex, as markets priced in renewed Black Sea logistics risk, digested a batch of U.S. export shipment and sales updates, and stayed alert to weather-driven supply risks across both hemispheres heading into holiday-thin trade.

A reported drone attack that damaged piers, vessels, a pipeline segment, and storage tanks at Russia’s Taman Black Sea port injected a new geopolitical and logistical premium early in the day. Even without an oil spill or reported injuries, the optics of repeated strikes on commodities-linked assets tends to tighten perceived supply security and is most directly supportive for wheat, given the region’s importance to global export flows.

Export flow data was a key bullish anchor for wheat. U.S. wheat export inspections rose to 627,443 MT for the week ending Dec. 18, up sharply versus the prior week and well above the same week last year, with Mexico, Japan, Thailand, and China among top destinations—signaling solid physical movement even as broader markets remain headline-driven.

The market also absorbed a “catch-up” export sales update for the week ending Dec. 4, with wheat sales reported at 381,532 MT, within the broad expectations band but on the lower side versus some estimates. Attention quickly shifted to the next export sales update scheduled for Tuesday (covering the week of Dec. 11), with trade looking for another 300,000–600,000 MT of wheat sales, keeping near-term demand expectations active.

Corn received support from strong shipment momentum. Export inspections showed 1.744 MMT of corn shipped for the week of Dec. 18, an increase from the prior week and far above last year, led by Mexico and notable volumes to South Korea, Spain, and Japan—evidence of robust early-season movement that can underpin futures on dips.

Corn export sales for the week ending Dec. 4 were reported at 1.479 MMT, near the lower end of trade expectations but still materially above the same week last year. With another update due Tuesday and expectations set at 0.9–1.8 MMT for the week of Dec. 11, the sales cadence remains a near-term sentiment lever for the corn market.

Soybeans were supported by a mix of demand signals and product-market tone. USDA reported a private export sale of 396,000 MT of soybeans to China (split between 2025/26 and 2026/27), while weekly export sales for Dec. 4 came in at 1.55 MMT, one of the largest totals of the marketing year—supportive indicators for nearby futures even as broader demand narratives remain mixed.

At the same time, soybean export shipments were 870,199 MT for the week ending Dec. 18, higher week-on-week but still well below the same week last year, reminding traders that near-term shipment pace matters alongside headline sales. Soymeal and soyoil both finished firmer, with meal up modestly and oil gaining on support from a bounce in crude oil, adding additional tailwinds to the soybean complex.

Weather stayed in focus, particularly around winter wheat conditions and South America risk pockets. The U.S. Plains are set for abnormal warmth and limited precipitation, a combination that can erode soil moisture and reduce winter hardiness if wheat emerges ahead of later cold. In South America, the outlook flagged dry conditions persisting in Argentina’s Pampas—an increasing stress risk for corn and soybeans—while Brazil’s rainfall pattern was described as broadly beneficial for corn/soy areas as soybeans move into pod-fill.

Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.15 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents. Strength was supported by renewed Black Sea disruption risk headlines and a notably higher U.S. wheat export inspections figure, which reinforced demand visibility into the holiday week.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn closed at $4.47, up 3 1/4 cents. The market leaned on strong U.S. export inspections and steady export sales, while keeping an eye on South America weather contrasts that could quickly change perceived supply risk.

Soybeans: Jan ’26 CBOT soybeans closed at $10.53 1/4, up 4 cents. Support came from a large reported sale to China, strong weekly export sales, and firmer product markets, while shipment pace versus last year and South America weather remain key variables for follow-through.