Chicago starts Monday mostly lower, with wheat, corn, and soybeans easing as the market enters the final three trading days of 2025 with limited weekend news flow, delayed U.S. government reports, and a heavy focus on Black Sea headlines and South America weather risk.

Early price action is softer across the complex despite last week’s gains, a setup that reflects year-end positioning and a market still debating whether last week’s added geopolitical premium is sustainable. Month-to-date performance stays mixed, with soybeans still sharply lower for December even after last week’s bounce.

The Russia–Ukraine conflict remains the main headline variable. Traders are actively debating whether to add or subtract the war premium as infrastructure attacks continue, and the market is watching an expected Sunday meeting between President Trump and President Zelensky that could shift cease-fire expectations quickly—an outcome that would be most immediately bearish for corn and wheat if a durable de-escalation narrative takes hold.

Russia’s new crop totals add a supply-side counterweight. Rosstat pegged Russia’s 2025 wheat harvest at 91.4 mln tonnes (vs 82.6 mln in 2024) and total grain at 139.4 mln tonnes (vs 125.9 mln), a data point that can temper rallies if export flow remains steady, even as traders monitor policy and logistics constraints.

Weather is not delivering a single clean signal, which is keeping intraday risk two-sided. A weekend cyclone is ushering in colder U.S. temperatures with rain/snow across the northern/eastern Midwest but is expected to have minimal crop impacts, while the 7-day outlook shows very little precipitation for much of the Plains—an input that can keep wheat weather sensitivity alive if dryness persists.

South America remains the core “repricing lever” for corn and soybeans into early January. Paraguay is set up for cool/wet conditions that are broadly favorable for corn/soy development, Brazil is expected to maintain near-to-above normal rainfall across most crop areas, and the key watchpoint stays Argentina’s Pampas, where persistent dryness through early January is flagged as unfavorable for corn and soybeans.

Outside markets are adding cross-currents but are not fully transmitting into grains. Crude oil is higher this morning after Friday’s drop, while the EIA report is delayed to today due to the holiday schedule—factors that can influence soyoil sentiment but have not yet translated into clear spillover support for corn or beans in early trade.

Vegetable-oil tone is slightly weaker at the open. Malaysian palm is lower overnight, soyoil is down early, and high rainfall across major Indonesia/Malaysia palm regions is seen as supportive for production upside—conditions that can cap soyoil-led rallies and keep soybeans more dependent on weather and demand catalysts.

Positioning signals suggest volatility can be exaggerated in thin participation. Preliminary open interest showed corn adding contracts while soybeans and products saw sharp declines into Friday (including options expiration effects in beans), a backdrop that often produces sharper headline reactions and faster reversals in the last days of the year.

Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat is down 3 1/2 cents early, after closing Friday at $5.19 (-2 3/4 cents). The market is weighing Plains dryness (limited precip in the 7-day forecast) against the risk that cease-fire progress could remove premium, with Russia’s larger 2025 wheat harvest also in the background.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn is down 2 3/4 cents early, after closing Friday at $4.50 (-1 cent). Early pressure reflects thin trade and the market’s war-premium debate, while Argentina Pampas dryness into early January is the key weather-support variable traders are watching for follow-through.

Soybeans: Jan ’26 CBOT soybeans are down 5 3/4 cents early, after closing Friday at $10.58 3/4 (-4 1/2 cents). With limited weekend headlines, beans are leaning on South America weather risk and veg-oil tone, while the large drop in soybean open interest into Friday keeps the complex sensitive to quick swings in thin liquidity.