Chicago corn and soybeans extended gains Wednesday, supported by South American weather stress and steady demand signals, while winter wheat contracts edged lower even as Russian exports remain constrained. Traders balanced tightening Black Sea logistics against improving spring wheat performance and cautious positioning ahead of weekly US export data.

Winter wheat futures remained under pressure as Chicago SRW and Kansas City HRW contracts closed lower on the session, reflecting limited immediate bullish catalysts and ongoing Plains drought concerns.

The market is watching US weekly export sales expectations of 250,000–500,000 MT for old crop, a range that signals steady but not aggressive demand, leaving wheat vulnerable to range-bound trade.

Spring wheat diverged from the winter complex, with Minneapolis contracts firming into the close, suggesting underlying support from tightening global milling supplies and Black Sea shipment disruptions.

Stormy weather and ice continue to complicate Russian port logistics, keeping FOB offers elevated near $232–$236/mt and limiting export flow, a factor that cushions global wheat values even as US futures hesitate.

Russian export projections for 2025/26 were trimmed by 0.3 MMT to 45.4 MMT, reinforcing the perception of tighter Black Sea availability.

At the same time, Algeria’s purchase of an estimated 600,000 MT in a recent tender underscores ongoing import demand from North Africa, helping to prevent deeper losses in the global wheat complex.

US corn futures drew support from steady ethanol demand metrics and firm export expectations.

Ethanol production held near 1.113 million barrels per day, with stocks rising modestly, signaling stable biofuel pull. With export sales estimates pegged at 0.9–1.8 MMT for old crop and Taiwan booking 65,000 MT of US corn, demand remains a constructive element for prices.

South American weather continues to be a dominant driver for feed grains and oilseeds. Brazil’s safrinha corn benefits from current rainfall, but forecasters warn that consistent heavy precipitation is needed over the next two months to secure pollination and grain fill, otherwise yield risk will increase.

In Argentina, spotty showers and persistent dryness are weighing on both corn and soybean ratings, reinforcing production concerns and lending support to Chicago futures.

Soybeans were additionally supported by strength in soybean meal, as a drier Argentine forecast into the end of the growing season underpinned midday gains.

Meal futures advanced $4.40 to $7.60 in front months, while soy oil also firmed, reflecting improving crush margins and positioning ahead of potential US biofuel policy updates.

The EPA is expected to submit 2026 biofuel mandates to the White House OMB this week, a key macro driver for the soybean complex.

Anticipation of supportive blending targets is keeping underlying demand sentiment firm for soy oil and, by extension, soybeans.

Export flow from Brazil remains heavy but slightly below prior projections, with February soybean exports seen at 10.69 MMT, down from 11.46 MMT the previous week.

While logistical disruptions at a Cargill facility are expected to ease within 48 hours, the sheer size of Brazil’s crop continues to cap upside, even as Argentine weather offsets some of that pressure.

Mar ’26 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.65 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents, reflecting weakness in SRW alongside softer HRW contracts, while Minneapolis spring wheat posted modest gains.

The divergence highlights persistent Plains drought and cautious export expectations, partially balanced by constrained Russian shipments and North African demand.

Mar ’26 Corn closed at $4.30 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents, supported by steady ethanol production, solid export expectations, and South American weather uncertainty.

Ongoing dryness in Argentina remains the primary bullish lever for feed grains.

Mar ’26 Soybeans closed at $11.48 1/4, up 8 3/4 cents, driven by soybean meal strength and a drier Argentine outlook.

Anticipation of US biofuel mandate decisions and firm crush dynamics reinforced gains across the oilseed complex.