Chicago grains are higher to start Thursday, with soybeans leading gains on tightening Brazil weather and renewed biofuel optimism, while wheat trades mixed as export tenders and Black Sea competitiveness clash. Traders are focused on this morning’s USDA export sales report and how it may reinforce or challenge the current demand narrative

Wheat markets are showing mixed action after winter contracts weakened Wednesday while Minneapolis spring wheat closed firmer

Open interest declined across SRW and HRW, signaling some long liquidation, but the tone early Thursday is steadier as fresh export tenders from Saudi Arabia and Algeria keep international demand visible

This provides underlying support to US wheat, particularly if USDA sales meet the 250,000–500,000 MT old crop expectation.

Russia’s wheat export outlook for 2025/26 was trimmed by 0.3 MMT to 45.4 MMT, though SovEcon noted Russian wheat has largely lost its traditional price advantage versus EU origins

The narrowing differential limits upside momentum, as higher Russian offers reduce competitiveness but do not yet imply a sharp supply squeeze, capping bullish enthusiasm for CBOT wheat.

Ukrainian grain flows to Black Sea ports have risen 2% month-on-month in February but remain below last year’s pace, with infrastructure attacks and higher logistics costs weighing on exports

Disruptions in Odesa and energy infrastructure continue to elevate freight risk, a factor that can underpin global wheat values if sustained.

Corn is trading 1 to 2 cents higher early Thursday after posting midweek gains, with attention squarely on export sales estimates ranging from 900,000 to 2,200,000 tons

Additional tender activity from South Korea for 135,000 MT of corn reinforces steady demand, offering near-term support to US futures

Ethanol production held at 1.113 million barrels per day last week, with stocks at 25.646 million barrels

While output was slightly below survey expectations, the stability in production supports baseline corn demand, and any policy clarity on renewable fuel mandates would add to that support.

The EPA has sent its 2026 biofuel blending proposal to the White House for review, signaling progress toward finalizing Renewable Volume Obligations

The move is broadly supportive for corn and soybean oil, as stronger mandated blending levels would underpin feedstock demand and improve processing margins.

South American weather remains a dominant driver. Central and southern Brazil are turning drier, with forecasters warning that consistent heavy rainfall is still needed to secure safrinha corn pollination and grain fill

In Argentina, showers remain spotty and below-normal rainfall continues to pressure corn and soybean yield prospects, reinforcing a supportive bias for Chicago futures

Soybeans are also drawing support from the oil complex, though India has canceled 65,000 to 75,000 tons of South American soy oil cargoes amid a price rally

The cancellations reflect profit-taking rather than demand destruction, and expectations of firm US biofuel policy continue to buoy soybean oil, one of the best-performing commodities this year

Mar ’26 CBOT Wheat is currently up 1 cent after closing Wednesday at $5.65 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents

Early trade reflects mixed winter wheat performance against firmer spring wheat, with export tenders and Black Sea logistics competing with subdued competitiveness signals from Russia.

Mar ’26 Corn is currently up 2 cents after closing at $4.30 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents

Export demand expectations, steady ethanol production, and drier South American forecasts are providing early-session support.

Mar ’26 Soybeans are currently up 7 1/2 cents after closing at $11.48 1/4, up 8 3/4 cents

Strength in soybean meal and oil, alongside advancing US biofuel mandates and tightening Brazil weather, is setting the tone for the oilseed complex at the start of Thursday’s session.