Core Market Drivers

Wheat futures softened on Tuesday after failing to build on recent strength. Chicago SRW contracts closed steady to 2 cents lower, while KC HRW futures fell 5 to 6 cents in the front months. Mar ’26 CBOT wheat settled at $5.67 1/2, down 2 cents, reflecting cautious positioning despite stable export flows.

European export data provided underlying support but did not prevent the pullback. EU soft wheat exports from July 1 to February 22 totaled 15.38 MMT, up 1.36 MMT year-over-year. Algeria also purchased wheat in a tender, reinforcing ongoing international demand, though volumes were not yet disclosed.

Weather in the U.S. Southern Plains remains a concern for winter wheat. Precipitation is expected to be limited over the next week, with only scattered totals across SRW areas. Soil moisture challenges persist in parts of the HRW belt, leaving crop conditions vulnerable heading into spring.

Corn futures closed mixed on Tuesday, with front-month March up 1/4 cent while deferred contracts slipped 1 to 2 cents. Mar ’26 CBOT corn settled at $4.27 3/4, up 1/4 cent. Strong inspection data and stable Brazilian export projections helped anchor prices.

U.S. export inspections for corn reached 2.005 MMT in the week ending February 19, up sharply from the prior week and well above year-ago levels. Japan was the top destination, reinforcing strong international demand even as global supply expectations remain comfortable.

Brazil’s ANEC maintained its February corn export estimate at 1.13 MMT, steady with last week’s outlook. Meanwhile, Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 30% complete as of February 19, up from 21% a week earlier but still below last year’s pace, reflecting delays from planting and rainfall disruptions.

Soybeans outperformed on Tuesday, posting gains of 4 to 5 1/2 cents in nearby contracts. Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans closed at $11.39 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents. Soymeal futures advanced up to $2, and soy oil gained 42 to 64 points, reflecting firm crush margins and improved demand sentiment.

Export inspections for soybeans totaled 670k tons for the week, down from the prior week but still supported by strong Chinese demand, which accounted for 345k tons. Marketing year soybean export totals remain below last year, but recent private sales and product strength are stabilizing sentiment.

Brazil’s February soybean export estimate was trimmed to 10.69 MMT, down 0.77 MMT from the previous week. EU soybean imports for the marketing year to date totaled 8.11 MMT, down 1.02 MMT year-over-year, highlighting a shifting demand landscape amid large global supplies.

Global policy headlines added complexity. India formally notified a 2.5 MMT wheat export quota and additional wheat product shipments, introducing incremental global supply. Meanwhile, palm oil markets remained capped by rising Chinese soy oil exports and softer Indonesian January palm shipments, limiting upside in vegetable oil markets.

Severe wildfires across the U.S. Plains added longer-term livestock and feed market concerns. Burned pastureland and reduced grazing availability could alter regional feed demand dynamics, though immediate grain impacts remain limited.

Crop Futures Wrap

Wheat:
Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.67 1/2, down 2 cents. Strong EU export data and Algerian buying were offset by limited U.S. precipitation and improved global supply signals.

Corn:
Mar ’26 CBOT corn settled at $4.27 3/4, up 1/4 cent. Record U.S. export inspections and steady Brazilian shipment estimates supported prices despite mixed forward contracts.

Soybeans:
Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans closed at $11.39 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents. Gains were driven by firm soymeal and soy oil strength, solid export inspections, and continued harvest delays in Brazil.