Early Tuesday trade is mixed but active: winter wheat contracts are firmer, corn is fractionally higher, and soybeans are softer as markets balance renewed Black Sea disruption risk against heavy South America supply headlines and another strong round of U.S. export data.

A Russian drone attack damaged facilities and a civilian vessel in Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odesa, including a ship carrying Ukrainian soybeans. Any escalation risk around ports and loading infrastructure can add a near-term risk premium, most directly to wheat, while also keeping soy flows from the region in focus.

U.S. export movement and sales remain a central support pillar into the holiday-thinned week. Export inspections for the week ending Dec. 18 showed 1.744m tons of corn shipped and 627k tons of wheat, both higher than the prior week, while soybean shipments improved week-on-week to 870k tons but stayed far below the same week last year.

Fresh export sales updates for the week of Dec. 11 leaned constructive across crops and add near-term demand visibility. Wheat sales were 432,609 MT, corn sales reached 1.74 MMT (toward the high end of estimates), and soybean sales hit 2.396 MMT (a marketing-year high), with China the largest soybean buyer at 1.38 MMT for that week.

South America weather is turning into a two-speed story that can swing intraday sentiment. Heavy rain is forecast for the northern Argentinian Pampas with rising flood and excess-moisture risk, while the Southern Pampas are expected to trend drier during a crucial development window for corn and soybeans—an unusually split setup that can create both localized losses and localized stress depending on where the worst hits.

Brazil’s pattern is broadly supportive for crop development but not uniform. More widespread rainfall in the south and scattered showers in central areas are boosting soil moisture as soybeans move into pod fill, yet parts of São Paulo and Minas Gerais are expected to see much less precipitation alongside very hot temperatures when it is not raining—an early watchpoint for pockets of stress.

Supply-side headlines from Brazil are also shaping the tone in soybeans. AgRural raised its 2025/26 Brazil soybean estimate to 180.4 MMT (from 178.5 MMT), with yield pegged at 61.2 bags/ha and area at 49.1 million ha, while noting harvest has started in some locations but is not expected to advance before January—an update that reinforces the “big Brazil” narrative and can cap soybean rallies.

Russia’s wheat fundamentals remain a longer-horizon input for global wheat pricing. Sovecon said Russia is gradually sowing less wheat due to declining margins tied to floating export taxes, projecting lower total wheat area and a 2026 wheat harvest of 83.8 MMT, while officials reiterated a 53m–55m ton grain export plan and noted exports to the Middle East have edged higher season-to-date, including increased volumes to Turkey and Israel.

Outside markets and veg oils are an additional cross-current today. Malaysian palm oil was higher overnight, Indonesia set a 2026 biodiesel quota similar to this year’s, and U.S. energy data timing is shifted with the EIA report delayed due to the holiday schedule—factors that can influence soyoil direction and, by extension, soybean spreads during thinner trade.

Positioning and liquidity signals suggest moves can overshoot. Preliminary open interest changes showed declines across corn and especially soybeans, and overnight indications had soymeal firmer while soyoil eased—conditions that can amplify headline reactions rather than dampen them.

Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat is at $5.17 1/2, up 2 cents early Tuesday. Support is coming from Black Sea disruption risk after the Odesa strike and steady U.S. export flow/sales updates, while January cold-risk commentary for parts of Russia keeps winterkill sensitivity in the background.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn is at $4.47 1/4, up 1/4 cent. The tone is underpinned by strong U.S. export sales (1.74 MMT for the week of Dec. 11) and solid inspections, with South America’s mixed Argentina moisture outlook a key variable traders will watch for follow-through.

Soybeans: Jan ’26 CBOT soybeans are at $10.50 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents early. Record-strong weekly U.S. soybean sales are supportive, but the market is weighing that demand against AgRural’s higher Brazil production estimate and the day’s softer soyoil tone, keeping soybeans the most two-sided leg of the complex at the start.