The Dec. 22–26 week traded like a classic holiday tape: fewer participants, faster reactions, and price moves that leaned heavily on geopolitics, U.S. demand metrics, and South America weather risk. By Friday, weekly performance stayed positive across the complex (week-to-date: SRW +12 cents, HRW +18 3/4, corn +7 1/4, soybeans +17), even as the final session itself was quieter and slightly lower in spots.

Black Sea security risk was the week’s first volatility spark. Early on, Russia reported drone damage at the Taman Black Sea port—hitting tankers/piers and also damaging a connecting pipeline segment and storage tanks—an event with obvious “risk premium” implications for commodities logistics in a region that handles grains among other cargoes.

U.S. export flow data then provided a concrete demand anchor for prices. Export inspections for the week ending Dec. 18 showed corn shipments at 1.744 MMT and wheat shipments at 627,443 MT, both above the prior week, with corn volumes notably strong and wheat shipments up year-on-year.

Sales updates reinforced that demand story. The “catch-up” export sales report for the week ending Dec. 4 showed wheat sales at 381,532 MT and corn sales at 1.479 MMT, while soybeans posted 1.55 MMT—a supportive baseline going into the holiday-shortened stretch.

Midweek, the next export sales batch (week ending Dec. 11) kept momentum intact. Wheat sales printed 432,609 MT, corn reached 1.74 MMT (toward the high end of expectations), and soybeans hit 2.396 MMT—a marketing-year high—with China the dominant soybean buyer at 1.38 MMT.

Weather risk remained the key “repricing lever,” especially for corn and soybeans. Forecasts emphasized flood/excess-moisture risk in the northern Argentinian Pampas alongside a drier trend in the Southern Pampas, a split pattern that can translate into localized losses in the north and yield-risk premium in the south. Brazil’s setup was mostly beneficial (front-stalled rains in the south, scattered central showers supporting pod-fill), but with stress pockets flagged where precipitation is lighter and heat runs higher (e.g., parts of São Paulo/Minas Gerais).

Supply headlines from South America helped cap runaway rallies—especially in soybeans. AgRural lifted its Brazil soybean estimate to 180.4 MMT, while Safras trimmed its Brazil corn estimate to 142.88 MMT. Meanwhile, Argentina wheat production estimates were also revised higher by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (27.1 MMT).

Into Friday and beyond, longer-horizon Black Sea supply policy stayed in focus as Russia set a late-season grain export quota (Feb. 15–June 30) that applies to multiple grains including barley and corn, and is larger than the comparable period last season—signaling intent to keep exports moving if price/margin conditions improve.

Holiday logistics also mattered: several U.S. government report timings were shifted, with the EIA data delayed and export sales releases pushed back around the holiday calendar—keeping the market more reliant on headlines, weather maps, and positioning signals.

Wheat

Wheat ended the week still carrying a measurable Black Sea risk premium: March CBOT wheat finished Friday at $5.19 (down 2 3/4 cents on the day) but remained up 9 1/4 cents on the week, with HRW March up 18 1/4 cents week/week. The backdrop stayed supported by stronger U.S. export inspection flow and improving export sales cadence, while Russia export-policy headlines (bigger late-season quota) helped keep forward supply expectations active.

Corn

Corn’s week was underpinned by a strong demand profile: March corn ended Friday at $4.50 (down 1 cent on the day) and was up 6 1/4 cents on the week, supported by robust export inspections (1.744 MMT) and a high-end export sales print (1.74 MMT for Dec. 11). Argentina crop development indicators also stayed constructive (planting ahead of average; strong early condition ratings), even as the Pampas forecast split kept weather premium in play.

Soybeans

Soybeans carried the most “two-sided” structure all week: demand headlines were undeniably strong (including the marketing-year-high 2.396 MMT weekly sales and a separate 396,000 MT sale to China), but shipments and broader balance-sheet optics kept a lid on follow-through at times. January soybeans ended Friday at $10.58 3/4 (down 4 1/2 cents) and held a 9 1/2-cent weekly gain, while “big Brazil” supply expectations (AgRural at 180.4 MMT) and shifting veg-oil/cross-market signals remained key constraints.