Daily Grain Report

On Wednesday Chicago crop prices remained stable with a slight increase. In Paris prices remained stable.
EUR / USD index fell to 1.1207. WTI crud oil rose to 51.29 USD / barrel.

Algeria proposes to be establish a Standing Committee for the Monitoring of the Oil Market as a structure of OPEC. This was stated by the energy minister Nuredin Butarfa in an interview for Bloomberg. No one opposed the extending of the agreement to reduce the production by another 9 months, but earlier some participants in the deal had objections, he added. A ministerial committee met yesterday in Vienna to monitor the compliance with the oil mining agreement between OPEC and the countries-producers outside the cartel. By the end of March, the countries had met their obligations under the deal  averagely at 98 percent.

Yesterday the Chicago market stayed calm. Wheat had more serious support, materialized in a slight increase in the price. The support came from the late snow storms of the Midwest and the damage they eventually caused. Soybeans and corn remained stable. For corn, estimates are being made for how many areas will have to be re-cropeed or converted to soybans. The market expects the USDA's first estimate of the condition of corn crops.

The American farmers have rejected President Trump's proposal to cut the spending on agriculture. Thus, according to the president, the troubled economy will be supported. It has been suggested that in the next 10 years, agricultural spending should be reduced by 46.54 billion dollars, including reduced insurance subsidies. Now the Congress is expected to vote for the changes, but the chances of adopting it are small.

On Wednesday oil prices remained stable in anticipation of news from Vienna. There will be a certain agreement to limit the production. The question is how much it will help the market. There will be some effect, but what? If the price of oil rises shall other producers fill the gap that this agreement opens? Will the market itself respond to a decline in consumption at prices above 60 USD / barrel? From this market development, we also expect support for biofuel prices and hence for grain and oil crops.

China's agricultural reform is working. In the recent months the country has turned from net importer of ethanol into an exporter. This is one of the ways to reduce corn stocks in China, which is happening.
The weather situation also poses some problems. In the United States, a part of the corn is re-seeded. In Europe there is drought. - Spain, parts of France, Great Britain. In Russia it is quite cool and has concerns about the slow development of the crops, even wheat.

BlackRock believes the grain market is at or around its lowest levels. From here it will recover, which will raise the prices of agricultural companies in the world. Now there is a reversal of the trend of continuous growth of grain and oil crop stocks. After 2012 crop prices have fallen by about 40%. Until now, we have never had five years of continuous stock growth and a drop in prices. This does not mean that in 2017 again there will be no drop in prices.Over the past four years, the weather has been with the manufacturers and there are hardly any major problems around the world. The company believes that crop prices are on the bottom now. The shares of the companies suppliers of fertilizers, chemicals, seeds and machinery will grow in the next few years along with the rising output prices.

 CBOT (Chicago)         

  USD/mt

   +/-

Wheat 07.2017

 158.88

 +1.10

Corn 07.2017

 150.07

 +0.63

Soybeans 07.2017

 348.40

 0.00

Soybeans meal 07.2017

 337.75

 +0.11

 EURONEXT (Paris)

 EUR/mt  

  +/-

Wheat 09.2017

 167.00

 +0.25

Corn 06.2017

 166.25

 -0.25

Rapeseed 08.2017

 360.50

  0.00

Rapeseed meal 06.2017

 204.00

  0.00

 

Corn prices - yesterday corn prices in Chicago rose by 1.75 - 2 cents / bushel. In the past week, ethanol production in the US was 1.01 mln. barrels per day, down by 17,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks in the USA decreased by 730,000 barrels per week. For the period ethanol exports are high. Weekly export sales of US corn are expected at 550,000 - 1 050,000 tonnes at 0.873 million tonnes in the previous week. In April  DDGS imports to China decreased by 80.4% compared to last year down to 51 523 tonnes.

Wheat prices - yesterday wheat futures in Chicago rose by 2.25 - 6.75 cents / bushel. Since the beginning of the season, exports of soft wheat from the EU have reached 21.82 million tonnes, which is 20.88% less than the last year. Export sales of wheat from the United States are expected to be between 200,000 and 800,000 tonnes at 641,000 tonnes a week earlier and 345,000 tonnes a year earlier.

Soybean prices - yesterday soybean price in Chicago remained stable. The forecasted rainfall for the next five days in the United States will slow down crop sowing. Export sales of US soybeans are expected at 150,000 - 650,000 tonnes at 397,000 tonnes a week earlier and 607,000 tonnes last year. On Tuesday USDA announced the export sale of 126,000 tonnes of soybeans of current crop to an unknown destination.