EUR / USD index fell to 1.1864. WTI crude oil dropped to 49.23 USD / barrel.

The dollar has reached its lowest level to the euro since two years and a half on Wednesday, influenced by the doubts about the possible rise in US interest rates this year by the Fed, as well as the scandalous expectations for the European Central Bank. The EUR/USD index reached the level of 1.1910, the highest level since January 2015. Unlike the dollar, which is under the pressure of the political risks and uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the single currency has recently been backed by the expectation that the ECB will begin to end its current expansionary monetary policy.Fed President St Louis James Bullard commented that he was opposed to the rising of the interest rates in the United States and warned that any upsurge would hinder the target inflation of 2% which is so wanted by Fed.

Yesterday, the traders' view deviated from grain crops and remained focused only on the soybeans. Its price dropped significantly, and from the beginning of the week it fell by 5%. The reason for this is the relatively good weather conditions in the United States at the beginning of the soybean's key development month - August. The situation is now estimated to be close to the long-term trend line for soybeans yields.

The dollar has reached its lowest level since the euro for two years and a half on Wednesday, influenced by the doubts about the possible rise in US interest rates this year by  Fed, as well as the scandalous expectations for the European Central Bank. EUR/USD index reached the level of 1.1910, the highest level since January 2015. Unlike the dollar, which is under the pressure of the political risks and uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the single currency has recently been backed by the expectation that the ECB will begin to end its current expansionary monetary policy.

Corn futures in Chicago have fallen, but far less than soybeans. The reason for this was Informa Economics's forecast that the average soybeans yield in the US in 2017 will be 165.9 bushels / acre and the crop- 351.84 million tonnes. This yield is now estimated to be very good because other analysts predict yields of 162-163 bushels / acre. Earlier this week INTL FCStone predicted an average yield of 162.8 bushels / acre, but it was accepted by the market with multiple questions. Informa Economics boasts a conservative approach to the yield estimation.Thus, the market considers that, once all the factors have been assembled, the corn premium has so far been significantly reduced. Ag Resource estimates average corn yield in the US in 2017 from 165.9 bushels / acre, and the harvest will be 349.76 million tonnes. Currently, it is believed that in order to address the market, the average US corn yield should fall below 160 bushels / acre, which may not be the case.

Export sales of US corn can not support prices at all. Sales from the old crop are the lowest since the beginning of the season - only 36,700 tonnes. Sales of corn of the new crop are within the expectations - 438,300 tonnes, but this is well below the average weekly level. It is obvious that there is strong competition from South America, where corn stocks are not exhausted and supply is constantly at low prices.

Export sales of wheat are also not good - only 145,500 tonnes for the past week. With them the sales of wheat from new crop are below those of the previous year. At the present wheat prices in the US, it is very competitive on the world market. Weekly US wheat exports were at the level of 583,300 tonnes.
Export sales of soybeans are 233,400 tonnes of old crop + 367,500 tonnes of new crop. Actual sales in the week are higher, but there are cancellations of old contracts.

Informa estimates the average soybeans yield in the US at 47.3 bushels / acre.
Impact on prices had also the news that if China's US-Chinese trade contradicts trade, China will put soybeans in the first place as a supply constraint. Let's not forget that China is the world's largest importer of soybeans and much more than others.

Everything draws down - rainfall, not very low expected average yields, consumption, competition. Weak export sales of all US crops will be a problem in the coming months. I do not see how South America will soon reduce the supply of corn and soybeans. I also do not see how easily the wheat stocks in the Black Sea region will be depleted.

Eurozone exporters are being pushed by several countries in the competitive struggle. On the one hand the weakening US currency. On the other hand, the falling Russian ruble. The Russian ruble is down on the US dollar, and it, in turn, has declined rapidly against the euro. So the euro remains much more expensive than the Russian currency. Some forecasts indicate wheat crop in Russia amounting to 77 million tonnes. So the Russians should conquer the global market and dictate wheat prices not only until winter, but until the next harvest.

Corn price – yesterday wheat futures in Chicago fell by 1.5 cents / bushel. 16% of the US territory is drowned. In the week July 21st-27th export sales of wheat from the US were 36,694 tonnes (-88.92% compared to the previous year) + 438,252 tonnes (about -50%). Exports for the week are 1.09 million tonnes. The largest buyers are China, Mexico and Peru. Yesterday, Chinese authorities sold 72,885 tonnes of corn crop 2014.

Wheat price– yesterday wheat futures in Chicago fell by 2 - 4.75 cents / bushel. Export sales are at 145,500 tonnes (-70.8% and -55.4%). The exports reached 583,295 tonnes. The largest buyers were Indonesia and the Philippines. Informa predicts that the total wheat crop in the US will be 45.97 million tonnes. Japan purchased 132,925 tonnes of wheat from Australia, Canada and the United States.

Soybeans price– yesterday soybeans futures in Chicago fell by 15 - 17 cents / bushel. Export sales of US soybeans are at 233,400 tonnes + 367,500 tonnes. Exports reach 713,600 tonnes. The biggest buyers were China and an unknown buyer. China has a refused order to supply 57,501 tonnes of soybeans. Sales of soybean meal were 87,100 tonnes + 57,700 tonnes. Sales of soybeans oil were 10,700 tonnes. Informa estimates the average soybeans yield in the US at 47.3 bushels / acre and a crop of 114.31 million tonnes.