The week opened with mixed trends across the grain markets, as futures responded to shifting weather patterns and ongoing export dynamics. In Chicago on Tuesday, September 2025 wheat contracts opened at $5.16¾ per bushel, recovering slightly after last week’s bearish trend. Despite support from rising export inspections and a quiet yet positive performance in spring wheat, Kansas City HRW contracts continued to slide with losses of 1 to 2 cents. Spring wheat posted fractionally mixed results, with MPLS contracts holding up amid weather worries. USDA crop data confirmed that 86% of U.S. winter wheat has been harvested—just shy of the average—while export shipments reached nearly 600,000 metric tons last week, over double the prior week, largely due to sales to the Philippines, Nigeria, and Mexico.

Corn opened the day at $3.87 per bushel, down 2½ cents. Despite decent crop progress—88% silking and 42% in the dough stage—the market remained pressured by strong production estimates and slow export momentum. Brazil’s corn harvest reached 81% completion, but remains behind last year’s pace of 95%, while U.S. corn exports slipped to 1.208 million metric tons for the week, down from 1.532 million the week before. Futures fell into the close as speculative selling increased, with September open interest dropping by over 15,000 contracts. Conditions in the U.S. remain mostly stable with 73% of the crop rated good-to-excellent.

Soybeans opened the session at $9.75¼ per bushel and gained 5¾ cents by the close, bolstered by improved export activity and supportive crop progress. The USDA reported that 85% of the crop is blooming and 58% is setting pods, while conditions dropped slightly to 69% rated good-to-excellent. Weekly export shipments surged to over 612,000 metric tons—the highest since April—driven by large sales to Germany, Egypt, and Mexico. Soymeal futures rose by $1.90 and soyoil remained mixed. StoneX projected U.S. soybean yield at 53.6 bushels per acre, while Brazil’s upcoming crop is expected to reach 178.2 million tons, up 5.6% year-on-year.

Internationally, Japan’s record-breaking heatwave is prompting national concern over rice production. Temperatures hit a historical high of 41.8°C, raising alarms about crop quality and increasing pest infestations. The government has announced emergency measures to mitigate damage, including drought support and pest control. With over 53,000 people hospitalized for heatstroke this summer, the country is facing the risk of a repeat of last year’s rice shortage crisis.

Brazil continues to influence global price trends as its second corn crop reaches 81% harvested. Although delayed compared to last year, the pace has accelerated in recent days due to drier weather. Brazil’s soybean area is projected to rise by 2% for the 2025/26 season, reaching 48.6 million hectares. However, low margins and tight credit could constrain further growth. Production forecasts remain robust, with estimates ranging from 177.2 to 178.2 million metric tons. Higher export premiums and strong global demand are positioning Brazilian soybeans favorably in the global market.

In Ukraine, optimism surrounds the 2025 harvest outlook. The Deputy Economy Minister signaled that favorable weather could push wheat production up to 22 million tons and corn to 28 million, with total grain output potentially reaching 56 million tons—on par with 2024. While EU restrictions have cut Ukrainian wheat imports into the bloc from 4 million to 1 million tons, demand from North Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia remains robust. Winter wheat sowings are expected to grow by 6.4% next year due to stronger global demand and declining soybean acreage.

The U.S. faces growing uncertainty as President Trump prepares to implement expanded reciprocal tariffs. These measures could affect dozens of trade partners and commodities, including food and agricultural products. Exemptions are outlined for essential items like medicine and relief aid, but the overall average U.S. tariff rate could jump to 15.2%, fueling volatility in global trade. Ongoing negotiations with nations like Switzerland and India aim to reduce their exposure, but markets are bracing for supply chain disruptions and potential retaliatory measures.

Palm oil dynamics remain in flux, with Malaysian prices climbing 2.46% overnight amid efforts to boost productivity. The country plans to raise its palm oil replanting rate to 4% by 2026 through a proposed $331 million fund, aimed at improving long-term yields. Meanwhile, Indonesian discounted sales in July—prior to their August export tax hike—continue to challenge Malaysia’s ability to reduce growing inventories, even as rainfall is forecast to improve conditions in key regions this week.

Meanwhile, Egypt’s domestic wheat purchases have reached over 4 million tons for the 2025 season, extending reserves to more than six months. This solid domestic position alleviates some regional procurement pressure, even as global supply concerns linger due to reduced outputs from Russia and Ukraine. Cepea data in Brazil shows that wheat prices fell for the third consecutive month in July, weighed by international benchmarks and currency movements. However, productivity gains in Paraná may cushion the decline, despite reduced sowing areas.

Finally, weather remains a pivotal factor. North America’s mild spells favor corn and soybean development, while heavy rains in Canada risk wheat quality. Dry conditions in Central Brazil support corn harvesting, though frost risk lingers in parts of Argentina. Europe faces delayed harvesting due to moisture in the central and northern zones, and the Black Sea region continues to suffer from drought stress. Tropical activity in the Atlantic is also being closely watched for its potential to disrupt U.S. logistics in the days ahead.