Chicago trade on Tuesday could not hold earlier gains, with the complex drifting lower into the close as traders weighed supportive demand headlines against a steadier supply narrative and a mixed weather map. The session’s defining feature was spread-driven trade: soymeal held firmer while soyoil weakened, and that divergence pulled soybeans off highs.

Export flow data remained the daily “reality check,” particularly for wheat. Weekly inspections (week ending Jan. 1) were light for wheat at 183k tons, keeping the market more dependent on competitiveness and headline risk, while corn inspections stayed robust at 1.207 MMT and soybeans improved to 981k tons but remained well below last year’s pace. Positioning also stayed relevant, with open interest falling sharply in corn and also easing in soy and wheat, a setup that can magnify reversals as liquidity rebuilds post-holiday.

Demand signals were constructive in commitments, but not uniformly bullish in near-term tone. All-wheat export commitments were cited at 20.108 MMT, up 18% versus the same week last year, while corn commitments were listed at 50.538 MMT, now 30% larger year-on-year and ahead of the typical pace. Soybean commitments remained the weak link at 27.698 MMT, down 31% year-on-year and slightly behind the average pace, helping explain why beans struggled to sustain rallies without a clean veg-oil tailwind.

China-related soybean headlines were supportive early, but the market’s follow-through faded as the session progressed. Reuters reported China buying 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans for March–May shipment, and USDA confirmed a 336,000 MT sale to China, while also correcting details on a prior flash sale. Even with that demand pulse, beans stayed sensitive to the product complex, with meal firmer but oil softer into the close.

Weather remained a two-speed driver, and Tuesday’s close reflected the market’s difficulty pricing both stories at once. Argentina’s outlook leaned more positive on improved rains over the next 10 days, a factor that can temper immediate yield-loss fears for corn and soybeans. At the same time, the broader signal warned drought risk is set to increase across Brazil into late January, with heat and dryness focused on Central-West and Southeast areas, keeping a weather premium “on standby” even as Argentina improves.

Brazil supply headlines stayed broadly constructive and helped cap upside, especially in soy. StoneX raised its 2025/26 Brazil soybean crop outlook to 177.6 MMT on improved yields in Mato Grosso and favorable December weather, reinforcing the “big crop” baseline. Trade flow data also kept the supply story front-and-center, with shipping data citing record Brazil soy exports in 2025 and Brazil’s trade ministry showing December corn exports at 6.128 MMT, both reminders that South America remains a dominant global supplier.

Black Sea operational risk stayed relevant, but it did not translate into sustained risk premium buying on the day. Ukraine agricultural exports fell 8.4% in December (UGA), with wheat shipments down and soybean exports more than halving, reflecting the sensitivity of regional flows to policy and security conditions. A separate headline confirmed a strike on Bunge’s facility in Dnipro that spilled sunflower oil, underscoring how infrastructure disruptions can tighten perceived supply security even when global inventories look ample.

Sustainability policy turned into a fresh trade-flow uncertainty for soy supply chains. Industry group Abiove said it is withdrawing from the Soy Moratorium, following Mato Grosso’s move to remove tax benefits for traders who comply with the pact, raising the risk of compliance friction for buyers focused on deforestation-linked sourcing standards. Even if this does not reprice futures immediately, it can widen basis and origin differentials and keep “policy risk” embedded in South America premiums.

Outside-ag headlines added background noise that can still matter at the margin for feed and veg-oil sentiment. India reported multiple H5N1 bird flu outbreaks in Kerala, a reminder that animal disease can quickly reshape protein production and feed demand expectations. In veg oils, Malaysian palm was lower overnight, and Brazil wheat commentary emphasized low producer profitability and ongoing import dependence, with Argentina’s wheat crop cited at a record 27.8 MMT, reinforcing that global wheat trade is still heavily shaped by competitiveness and importer needs.

Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.10 1/2, down 2 cents. Wheat softened as the market leaned on light weekly inspections and a competitiveness-driven tone, even with export commitments running ahead of last year and weather concerns in parts of the Plains lingering as a volatility factor.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn closed at $4.44, down 1/2 cent. Corn gave back midday gains despite strong year-on-year export commitment momentum, with traders balancing steady demand signals against South America supply headlines and a quieter risk appetite into the close.

Soybeans: Jan ’26 CBOT soybeans closed at $10.42, down 5 1/4 cents. Beans were pressured by softer soyoil and the market’s ongoing sensitivity to “big Brazil” framing, even as China buying headlines and a confirmed private sale provided early support and soymeal stayed firmer.