Chicago’s Monday session finished higher across the grain complex, with soybeans outperforming as traders digested a catch-up round of USDA export sales and export inspections that re-centered the market on physical flow after thin holiday trade.

The clearest “close-of-day” takeaway was the contrast between sales and shipments by crop. Wheat export inspections for the week of 1/1 were very light at 183,305 MT, sharply below both the prior week and last year, even as marketing-year shipments stayed ahead of last year’s pace. That kept wheat’s upside more measured relative to corn and soybeans.

Corn demand stayed the sturdier anchor. USDA pegged corn export shipments at 1.207 MMT for the week ending 1/1, still strong year-on-year, and marketing-year exports were far larger versus the same period last year. Even though export sales for 12/25 were at the low end of expectations, the market treated the broader flow picture as supportive into the close.

Soybeans rallied with both flow and the complex’s internal tone improving. Export inspections rose to 980,518 MT week-on-week (still well below last year), while export sales for 12/25 came in at 1.178 MMT, within expectations and stronger than the same week last year. The session also saw firming in meal and soyoil, reinforcing the soybean-led bid.

Fund positioning stayed a quiet amplifier. The latest catch-up CFTC data showed managed money carrying a large net short in Chicago wheat, while corn funds flipped back to a net short as of 12/30, and soybean specs reduced their net long. That positioning mix can intensify day-to-day reactions when headline flow and export numbers hit the tape.

South America weather remained the macro risk lever even as export data drove the day’s tape. Central-West Brazil is flagged for increasingly persistent dryness with heat risks arriving soon, a negative setup as pod-setting accelerates into January, while Argentina’s Pampas remains persistently dry through mid-January, unfavorable for corn and soybeans. Paraguay’s cooler, wetter outlook is a partial offset, but it did not remove the broader need for weather premium.

Vegetable oils added a two-sided cross-current rather than a clean tailwind. India’s December palm imports fell to an eight-month low while soyoil and sunflower imports rose, a pattern that can support soyoil relative to palm. At the same time, Indonesia reported higher Jan–Nov palm export volume year-on-year and Malaysia’s palm inventories were estimated near a seven-year high, which can cap sustained veg-oil upside if stocks stay heavy.

Beyond grains, several policy and ag-market headlines reinforced “food inflation sensitivity” and trade-policy risk in the background. France signaled it will move to prohibit food imports containing certain EU-prohibited pesticide residues, a step that can reshape sourcing dynamics and compliance costs for specific supply chains. Meanwhile, Mexico reported another screwworm case as livestock movement restrictions remain a live risk for the cattle complex, and Tyson agreed to settle a U.S. beef price-fixing lawsuit—headlines that do not directly reprice grains daily, but can influence feed and protein-market sentiment at the margin.

Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.12 1/2, up 6 cents. Wheat finished higher with the broader complex, but weak weekly export inspections and soft export sales kept gains contained, even as large speculative short positioning remains a latent volatility driver.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn closed at $4.44 1/2, up 7 cents. The close leaned on still-strong export shipment momentum and marketing-year export performance versus last year, with post-holiday demand data helping stabilize sentiment into the week.

Soybeans: Jan ’26 CBOT soybeans closed at $10.47 1/4, up 17 3/4 cents. Soybeans led on a constructive export sales print, improved (though still year-on-year weak) inspections, and firmer product markets, while South America weather risk stayed the key catalyst for follow-through.