Early Tuesday trade is mixed-to-firmer in Chicago, with soybeans holding modest gains while wheat and corn grind higher as the market refocuses on export flow metrics, South America crop outlook updates, and Black Sea operational risk headlines in post-holiday liquidity.
Export visibility remains the day’s backbone. USDA inspections for the week ending Jan. 1 showed corn at 1.207 MMT and soybeans at 981k tons, both still strong relative to year-ago baselines for corn but softer for beans versus last year, while wheat inspections were light at 183k tons, keeping wheat more dependent on headline risk and competitiveness.
Weekly export-sales context is also in play for positioning. For the week ending Dec. 25, the top soybean buyer was China (462k tons) and the top corn buyer was Mexico (308k tons), reinforcing the theme that demand is present but still selective and price-sensitive as the calendar turns.
Soybeans are getting an extra demand jolt from China-related purchase headlines. Reuters reported China bought 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans for March–May shipment, and USDA confirmed part of that with a private export sale announcement of 336,000 MT to China, helping keep nearby beans supported even as soyoil is softer on the session.
South America weather is a two-speed driver that can quickly swing spreads. The daily weather headlines emphasize improved rains in Argentina over the next 10 days as broadly positive for corn/soy development, but also warn drought risk will increase across Brazil into late January with heat/dryness focused on Central-West and Southeast Brazil—an asymmetry that can underpin soymeal while capping confidence in a smooth “record crop” path.
Brazil’s supply narrative stays broadly constructive, but it is not one-dimensional. StoneX nudged its 2025/26 Brazil soybean production outlook up to 177.6 MMT on better Mato Grosso yields and favorable December weather, while noting later areas still depend on favorable weather through mid-March, keeping weather premium alive despite the “big Brazil” baseline.
Black Sea operational risk remains a meaningful wheat-and-oilseed variable. Ukraine export shipments fell in December (UGA data), with declines in wheat and soybean exports, and a separate headline confirmed a strike on Bunge’s facility in Dnipro that spilled sunflower oil—reminders that regional logistics and infrastructure disruptions can tighten perceived supply security even when global inventories are ample.
Sustainability-policy signals are also turning into a trade-flow factor for soy supply chains. Abiove said it is withdrawing from the Soy Moratorium, following Mato Grosso’s move to remove tax benefits for traders who comply with the pact, a shift that can raise compliance complexity for buyers focused on deforestation-linked sourcing standards and keep “policy risk” embedded in South America premiums.
Outside markets and positioning are adding cross-currents rather than a single clean bias. Malaysian palm is lower overnight and soyoil is softer, while preliminary open interest fell sharply in corn and also eased in soy and wheat, a setup that can exaggerate headline reactions as traders re-risk into early January.
Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat is at $5.13 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents early Tuesday. Wheat is balancing light weekly inspections and competitiveness optics against Black Sea disruption risk and a U.S. forecast that keeps Plains winter weather in focus for volatility rather than immediate damage.
Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn is at $4.46 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents. Corn is leaning on strong cumulative export commitments and steady inspections flow, with the market watching whether South America weather stays constructive enough to limit risk premium into mid-January.
Soybeans: Jan ’26 CBOT soybeans are at $10.51 1/4, up 4 cents. Beans are supported by fresh China buying headlines and firm soymeal tone, while Brazil’s higher production outlook and softer soyoil keep the complex spread-driven and forecast-sensitive.