EUR / USD index fell to 1.1932. WTI crude oil rose to 49.95 USD / barrel.

Oil markets start the week with slight rises and remain close to the several-month highs reached last week after the number of wells in the US dropped and the refineries continue to start work after Hurricane Harvey. US energy companies have stopped 7 oil wells during the week to 15th September, bringing their number to 749 - the smallest since June, energy company Baker Hughes said in a report on Friday. Despite the signs of market tightening, analysts warn that the hurricane shocks make it more difficult to identify longer-term fundamentals of supply and demand.

Frequently, stock and commodity markets are moving in different directions. Investors are looking for asset that bring the best return. Yesterday, Wall Street stock prices reached new record highs while the Bocm index for commodities fell by 0.1%. The agricultural commodity index Bocom  declined by 0.7%, returning to its lowest levels in the last eight years, which was reached at the end of August.

A new hurricane - Maria is on its way to the US coast and will probably be there earlier next week.
The drought in Brazil and Eastern Australia, and the excessive humidity in Argentina continue to affect the world grain markets. The impact is not yet strong, because in Argentina, the loss of a new crop is already calculated in the price, and in South America, the sowing of corn and soybeans is only just beginning. So far, analysts' opinion is that there is no reduction in yield potential. Another week in Brazil will be dry, then we will see weak rainfall. It is them that will, or will not, solve the problem with the present drought.

The earliest reports of US corn and soybeans yields are better than expected, despite the weather problems in the summer. This concerns Illinois, Missouri and Kentucky. Iowa yields are below the expectations so far. Soybeans yields in Illinois are 8 to 10 bushels / acre below those of last year, which was expected. Corn yields are 20 to 30 bushels / acre over those from last year, with expectations for a drop of 25-40 bushels / acre. More and more analysts are beginning to believe in the USDA forecasts for yields and crops. Grain supplies will be higher than expected so far.

Yesterday USDA reported export sales of 261,000 tonnes of soybeans to China and another 126,000 tonnes for an unknown destination. The current US demand for soybeans is great. In the last weeks, however, demand for corn and wheat is low.
Weekly export data for US soybeans are 928,575 tonnes at 1.11 million tonnes a week earlier. The data for corn is 676,819 tonnes - almost stable, and for wheat 464,375 tonnes (+44,000 tonnes).

Corn prices are suppressed by the large stocks of old crops. Farmers have a willingness to sell and that's pushing the prices. The competition with South America will be cruel.
The wheat in Chicago declined despite the evidence that Russian supplies lost a competitor. Last week, prices of Russian wheat with protein of 12.5% rose by 2 USD / tonne to 185 USD / tonne.

Australia's drought continues to support global wheat prices despite the huge crops in the Black Sea region. ABARE cut its forecast for wheat exports from Australia in 2017 - 2018 with 2.7 million tonnes to 18.5 million tonnes at 20.89 million tonnes in the previous forecast. The forecast for rapeseed exports is reduced by 510,000 tonnes to 2.04 million tonnes. Exports of sorghum also dropped by 1.67 million tonnes to 6.03 million tonnes - the lowest level for the last seven years. Finally, we see a sufficiently reduced export estimate that is consistent with the level of drought during the season.

CNGOIC predicts that soybeans imports in China in November will be 9 million tonnes at 7.5 million tonnes in October.

Yesterday corn futures in Chicago fell to 3.25 cents / bushel. Weekly US export controls for corn are at 676,819 tonnes, down by 47.8% from the last year. By the end of last week, 7% of the corn areas were harvested in the United States at 11% a year earlier.

Yesterday soybeans futures in Chicago went down slightly. Weekly export controls of US soybeans are 928,575 tonnes (-16.1% and + 22%). In the United States, 4% of the soybeans are harvested.

Yesterday wheat futures in Chicago fell by 3 to 5.5 cents / bushel. Weekly US export controls for wheat are at 464,375 tonnes (-8.75% and -19.13%). In the United States, 13% of the areas planted for winter wheat are sown. Today, Egyptian state-owned GASC will hold a wheat purchase auction.