Wheat

Wheat markets remained under pressure Tuesday, extending Monday’s weakness. The Sep 2025 CBOT Wheat contract closed at $5.47 3/4 per bushel, down 3/4 cent from the previous session. Soft red winter wheat in Chicago showed minimal movement, while Kansas City hard red winter wheat dropped by 5 to 6 cents, and Minneapolis spring wheat by 6 to 8 cents. The USDA reported 53% of the U.S. winter wheat crop had been harvested—slightly behind the five-year average. Crop condition ratings remained at 48% good-to-excellent, while spring wheat conditions fell 3%, now also rated 48%. Meanwhile, EU wheat exports declined year-over-year to 20.33 MMT, while Sovecon raised its Russian wheat export forecast to 42.9 MMT, adding further export competition into the global mix.

Corn

Corn futures continued their downward trend. The Sep 2025 Corn contract ended Tuesday at $3.98 per bushel, down 5 1/2 cents, falling below the $4 mark. USDA crop progress showed 18% of corn was silking—slightly ahead of average—and 3% was in the dough stage. Conditions improved modestly to 74% good/excellent, but regional performance varied widely, with sharp gains in Kansas and Missouri offset by declines in Illinois and Nebraska. On the export front, 112,776 MT of new crop corn was sold to Mexico. Weather forecasts for the Central Corn Belt predict 1–2 inches of rain, which may support crop development and weigh further on prices.

Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day with moderate losses. The Aug 2025 Soybean contract settled at $10.21 1/4 per bushel, down 10 1/4 cents. Despite steady U.S. crop condition ratings at 66% good/excellent, regional variation in weather performance is impacting sentiment. About 32% of the crop is blooming and 8% is setting pods. USDA reported a 144,000 MT soybean meal sale to the Philippines, including deliveries across two marketing years. Soymeal prices fell between $1.30–$1.90 per ton, while soyoil rose modestly. EU import estimates for 2024/25 show growth, with projections at 14.52 MMT, up from 13.2 MMT the previous year.

Harvest Stress and Contract Slides
Grain markets traded cautiously on Tuesday as harvest activity continued in key growing regions. The September 2025 wheat contract at CBOT closed at $5.47 3/4, reflecting a modest decline. Corn fell under pressure again, with the September contract closing at $3.98, finally breaching the psychological $4 threshold. Soybeans followed the bearish tone, as the August 2025 contract dropped to $10.21 1/4, losing 10 1/4 cents by the close. Despite stable crop ratings—corn at 74% and soybeans at 66% good-to-excellent—the market showed little confidence in prices holding steady under global pressure.

Brazil Accelerates While U.S. Waits on Weather
Brazil continues its surge on the soybean front. With 67.4 million tons exported since February and 10.4 million more lined up for July, traders are preemptively filling Chinese demand amid fears of tightening U.S.–China ties. In contrast, U.S. projections for 2025/26 signal a slowdown to 47.1 million tons, a diplomatic chill that looms large even as this season’s yield potential holds.

Argentina’s Milestone: Soymeal Heads to China
After years of waiting, 30,000 MT of Argentine soymeal is finally en route to China in a bulk cargo chartered by Bunge. This is more than a trade route—it is a shift in global protein flows that could weaken U.S. dominance in the soymeal market. With Vietnam already leading Argentine soymeal imports and China now stepping in, Argentina could soon become a regular fixture in the East Asian supply chain.

Trade Turbulence: Tariffs, Reactions, Realignments
The U.S. has imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Japan and South Korea, effective August 1, rattling trade assumptions. In the vegetable oil arena, Indonesia expects a 15–20% drop in palm oil exports to the U.S. due to duties. Malaysia is positioned to pick up the slack, while its officials stress that “American buyers will bear the cost.” This environment may ultimately strengthen the case for U.S.-grown oilseeds — if logistics and pricing hold up.

Wheat’s Shifting Geography
Turkey’s forecast to triple its wheat imports to 10.3 million tons is a direct result of climate strain and market re-opening. Meanwhile, 94.1% of Brazil’s wheat imports in June came from Argentina, which remains cheaper than Brazilian domestic supplies. And in North America, Bartlett’s acquisition of Ceres Global Ag extends its storage footprint and boosts its muscle in the spring wheat trade — a quiet move with long-term implications.

Weather Patterns Tilt the Balance
South America shows a divided weather map: Argentina’s Pampas is finally seeing rain, while southern Brazil faces deep moisture deficits of up to 60 mm, posing late-stage risks to crops. Meanwhile, reduced U.S. beef and pork production—down 15.4% and 23.5% respectively last week due to holiday cuts—dampens short-term feed grain demand, offering brief relief to overloaded corn stocks.