Wheat markets opened Thursday with a softer tone, reflecting a slight pullback in demand and mixed global supply dynamics. The September 2025 CBOT wheat contract started the day at $5.05½ per bushel, down 1¾ cents. U.S. export sales for the week totaled 722,846 metric tons, slightly lower than last week but still the second-largest weekly figure of the marketing year, more than doubling last year’s same-week volume. However, harvest pressure, competition from resurgent EU and Australian crops, and quality concerns from ongoing rains in parts of the Northern Plains and Midwest kept gains in check.
Corn prices showed resilience at the start of Thursday’s session, with the September 2025 contract opening at $3.74¾ per bushel, up ¾ cent. While old crop export sales recorded net reductions of 88,686 metric tons, new crop bookings surged to 2.04 million metric tons, the second-largest total on record for this time of year. CONAB’s latest estimates lifted Brazil’s corn output to 137 million metric tons, driven by a sharp upward revision to the second crop. Argentina is also expected to expand corn acreage by 15–20% in key producing regions for the 2025/26 season, signaling stronger Southern Hemisphere competition ahead.
Soybean futures began Thursday in negative territory, with the September 2025 contract at $10.10 per bushel, down 14 cents. Old crop export sales showed net reductions of 377,610 metric tons, while new crop commitments hit 1.133 million metric tons, a marketing-year high, despite no participation from China. Brazilian soybean production was slightly raised to 169.65 million metric tons by CONAB, while Abiove pegged the crop even higher at 170.3 million. Domestic crush expectations remain strong, with NOPA’s July report due Friday.
Global grain market sentiment is being shaped by mounting trade tensions, most notably China’s imposition of steep tariffs on Canadian canola products, which has stranded up to 400,000 tons of canola meal in warehouses near Chinese ports. Importers are now attempting to reroute these cargoes to other Asian markets at discounts of around 30%. This comes alongside China’s broader escalation in its trade dispute with Canada, including a 75.8% anti-dumping duty on canola seed, adding to earlier 100% tariffs on oil and meal. The standoff has disrupted supply chains and triggered price swings in related oilseed markets.
Weather remains a critical driver for price direction, with mixed outlooks across major producing regions. In the U.S., the Northern Plains and Midwest are seeing beneficial rains for corn and soybeans, though localized flooding and harvest delays for wheat remain concerns. The Delta and Lower Mississippi regions face patchy rainfall as crops approach maturity, while Canada’s Prairies continue to receive rain that benefits late crops but hampers early harvest progress. Europe’s hot, dry weather threatens corn yield potential, while the Black Sea region remains largely dry, exacerbating drought stress. In China, rainfall in the Northeast is boosting corn and soybean conditions, though the North China Plain faces renewed heat risks.
Export dynamics are shifting as global competition intensifies. Russian grain exporters face growing pressure in African, Middle Eastern, and Asian markets as EU wheat production rebounds and Southern Hemisphere suppliers, notably Australia and Argentina, prepare strong crops. Russian seaborne grain exports fell sharply in July, down 40.6% year-on-year, due in part to export quotas and lower output. Experts warn that despite stable demand from Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Asia, heightened supply from competitors will weigh on prices in the months ahead.
India’s vegetable oil trade is also influencing global oilseed sentiment. July palm oil imports fell 10.5% month-on-month amid contract cancellations, while soyoil imports surged nearly 37% to a three-year high. The shift reflects competitive pricing and delayed arrivals from June, and could pressure Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil futures if stockpiles build.
Crop updates from South America show largely favorable prospects. Argentina’s wheat crop is benefiting from widespread rains, keeping production estimates at 20 million tons, while corn acreage expansion is anticipated for the next season. In Brazil, soybean and corn production forecasts have been revised upward, signaling robust export potential.
In Europe, French wheat and barley harvests are showing good quality, with high specific weights and satisfactory protein content, though late rains in northern areas could affect some lots. German grain output is now forecast 10% higher than last year, with wheat yields improving due to larger cultivation areas and favorable growing conditions.
China is injecting 1.1 billion yuan in disaster relief funds to stabilize autumn grain production, targeting support for key regions growing corn, soybeans, and rice. At the same time, Chinese futures markets for rapeseed meal and oil are reacting strongly to tightening supply expectations linked to the Canadian canola dispute.
Overall, the global grain market is navigating a complex mix of bullish and bearish forces — trade policy shocks, competitive export pressures, shifting weather patterns, and robust Southern Hemisphere production prospects — all of which are setting the tone for today’s trading session and the weeks ahead.