Market snapshot: Wheat, Corn and Soybeans

Chicago wheat is starting Friday’s session slightly softer after Thursday’s winter-wheat-led rebound. The December 2025 CBOT wheat contract is trading around $5.39/bu, a modest pullback from Thursday’s close near $5.41 as the market digests fresh supply news and a solid export-sales print. Weekly export sales of about 505,000 tons sit in the middle of expectations and mark a three-week high, while open interest in SRW jumped by more than 7,500 contracts, underscoring renewed participation. On the fundamentals side, Statistics Canada has revised its 2025 wheat crop up to almost 40 million tons, well above earlier expectations, and French soft wheat is now 99% planted with 96% rated good/excellent, reinforcing a comfortable global supply backdrop even as Black Sea weather and logistics remain on traders’ radar.

Corn futures are also a touch weaker in early Chicago trade, with the December 2025 contract hovering near $4.36/bu, after posting 3–6 cent gains on Thursday. Fresh buying interest is evident with open interest up more than 11,000 contracts, supported by robust US export demand: weekly sales reached roughly 1.99 million tons, on the high side of trade ideas and the third-largest total of the marketing year. Brazilian export data show November corn shipments at just over 5 million tons, up around 6% year-on-year, and exporters’ group ANEC projects December loadings near 5 million tons, significantly above last year’s level, keeping global competition intense. Canada’s 2025 corn crop is estimated at about 14.9 million tons, down just over 3% from last year, a small tightening that does little to offset the heavy South American pipeline.

Soybeans are opening Friday on a slightly softer note, with January 2026 CBOT futures trading around $11.18/bu, easing back after modest gains in the previous session. Weekly US soybean export sales for the week of 30 October reached about 1.25 million tons, squarely in the middle of expectations but still nearly 14% below the prior week and roughly 49% under the same period last year. China re-emerged with purchases of about 232,000 tons, while soybean meal and soyoil sales were more subdued. On the supply side, Statistics Canada pegs 2025 soybean production at 6.79 million tons, down a little over 10% year-on-year, but that tightening is more than offset by aggressive Brazilian exports: November soybean shipments hit 4.2 million tons, 64% higher than a year ago, and ANEC projects December exports at 2.81 million tons, also sharply above last year, ensuring that world buyers remain well supplied as the US export window overlaps with South America’s record crop.

Global drivers for today’s session

The macro balance sheet is leaning heavily bearish on paper after the FAO lifted its 2025/26 global grain production forecast to a fresh record of about 3.0 billion tons, alongside record stocks of roughly 925.5 million tons. The global stock-to-use ratio is now projected near 22.3%, the highest since the early 1990s, reinforcing the narrative of comfortable overall availability even if regional stresses persist. At the same time, the FAO’s food price index fell 1.2% month-on-month in November, its third consecutive decline, led by steep drops in sugar and dairy, while grains posted gains as wheat markets reacted to potential Chinese buying interest, Black Sea security risks and expectations for lower Russian plantings.

South American trade flows remain one of the strongest price anchors. Brazil’s November soybean exports climbed to 4.2 million tons, up 64% from a year earlier, thanks to a record 2025 harvest that has prolonged high shipment volumes later into the calendar year than usual. Exporters’ association ANEC sees December soybean loadings at about 2.81 million tons, almost 90% above the same month last year, while projected 2025 full-year soy exports are put at 110 million tons, up from 97.3 million in 2024. For corn, ANEC estimates December exports near 4.99 million tons versus 3.62 million last year, underlining how Brazil is competing head-to-head with US origin in many key destinations. Soymeal exports, by contrast, are seen lower year-on-year in December, which may slightly tighten the global protein-meal balance at the margin.

China’s demand outlook, and its relationship with US suppliers, continues to set the tone for forward soybean pricing. USDA’s attaché in Beijing holds 2025/26 Chinese soybean imports at about 106 million tons, only marginally below the prior year, with domestic output near 19.9 million tons, reflecting Beijing’s efforts to curb import growth while still relying heavily on foreign beans. Diplomatically, a late-October deal between Presidents Trump and Xi extended a tariff truce and included commitments on soybean purchases, tariff reductions and the lifting of some non-tariff barriers, while a recent meeting between China’s trade council and the US Soybean Export Council in Washington framed soybean trade as a “model” for rebuilding broader ties. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has emphasized that Washington is prioritizing stability over confrontation with China, reinforcing expectations that agricultural products — including soybeans, corn and wheat — will remain central to the bilateral trade relationship.

In the vegetable oil complex, India is introducing a powerful demand-side twist. Indian refiners have reportedly cancelled about 70,000 tons of crude soyoil booked for December–January delivery after a sharp rally in global soyoil prices and a record-weak rupee pushed import costs well above domestic values. Crude soyoil offers near $1,220/ton for January are now significantly higher than the roughly $1,140/ton levels seen a month ago, leaving importers facing losses of more than $70/ton on previously booked cargoes. The price premium over palm oil has widened to more than $100/ton, prompting refiners to switch toward cheaper palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia; that shift is bearish for soyoil demand but broadly supportive for palm oil prices, with knock-on effects for oilseed crush margins and planting decisions across the soy, rapeseed and sunflower complexes.

On the regulatory front, the European Union’s deforestation law (EUDR) has been pushed back by a year in a provisional deal between the European Commission, Parliament and Council. The delay is designed to simplify implementation and give companies and authorities more time to adjust, but it also postpones the full compliance burden for exports of soybeans, coffee, cocoa, palm oil and other commodities into the EU. For grain and oilseed markets, this means short-term relief for trade flows that might otherwise have been disrupted this month, while keeping a structural layer of regulatory risk in the background as the law still aims to tighten sourcing standards and traceability over time.

Weather remains a key driver of nearby risk premium. In North America, an adequate snow cover is shielding dormant winter wheat across northern US regions from persistent cold, while the Central and Southern Plains see passing fronts with limited moisture and a bias toward colder air in the second half of December. The Midwest is under a clipper-type pattern bringing periodic snow, gusty winds and temperature swings, with only modest help for underlying drought. The Delta continues to see restrained river levels despite some recent rains. In South America, a stalled front over central Brazil is finally delivering much-needed heavy rains to developing soybeans and easing earlier moisture deficits, while the south is in a slower drying trend interrupted by occasional fronts. Argentina remains in a pattern of long dry stretches broken by patchy fronts, creating variable conditions for corn and soybeans but with soil moisture still broadly adequate. Across Europe, frequent Atlantic systems and adequate soil moisture support winter wheat, while the Black Sea region — especially southern Ukraine and southwest Russia — continues to struggle with prolonged dryness and below-par soil moisture, even as temperatures slowly push crops toward dormancy. A positive North Atlantic Oscillation phase points to generally mild European conditions into mid-month, reducing winterkill risk but leaving some regions exposed if moisture deficits persist.

Regional supply updates reinforce the impression of abundant availability in key exporters, even with localized stress. Statistics Canada has raised its 2025 wheat crop estimate to about 40 million tons and canola to roughly 21.8 million tons, both above earlier projections, while Canadian corn output is only modestly lower year-on-year. Brazil’s broader agriculture export picture remains strong, with official data showing November soybean exports up 64%, beef shipments up 40%, and coffee exports down 26%, a combination that supports the real and maintains momentum in farm investment. On the demand side, the latest USDA weekly export sales show respectable volumes for US wheat, corn and soybeans, confirming that US origin remains competitive even as it faces stiff competition from Brazil and the Black Sea.

Infrastructure, ownership and energy policy are adding more layers to the medium-term story. In Russia, US-based NCH Capital has reiterated it has no plans to sell AgroTerra, one of the country’s major farmland operators, even after the asset was placed under temporary state management, suggesting continuity of production capacity in a key grain exporter. In Argentina, the planned 25-year maintenance concession for the Parana River — through which most of the country’s soy and corn exports move — will reportedly exclude foreign state-owned firms from bidding, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape for dredging and navigation services but ultimately aiming for deeper channels of at least 40 feet to support large export volumes. Meanwhile, in the US biofuel space, a coalition of refiners, biofuel producers and retailers has urged President Trump to back legislation allowing year-round sales of E15 gasoline and to tighten Small Refinery Exemptions. A shift to permanent E15 use would be structurally supportive for corn demand, while a more predictable exemption regime could reduce policy volatility for ethanol producers and, by extension, corn growers.

Taken together, today’s grain trade is navigating a classic mix: record-high global balances and strong South American exports are capping rallies, while incremental demand from biofuels, evolving China–US trade dynamics, India’s shifting vegoil imports, regulatory delays in Europe and a patchy but mostly favourable weather pattern are all pulling risk premium up or down at the margin. For now, the balance of these forces keeps wheat, corn and soybeans in Chicago trading in relatively narrow ranges, with the market highly sensitive to any surprise in upcoming export sales, South American weather runs or new policy headlines.