Wheat

Chicago wheat is starting Tuesday with a softer tone, with the December 2025 CBOT contract trading around $5.30 1/4 per bushel as the market extends Monday’s modest losses and winter wheat leads the weakness. Overnight, SRW futures slipped another 3 1/4 cents, HRW fell 4 cents and HRS was steady, leaving the complex down so far this week and negative on the year in all three US wheat classes. Open interest is rising in both Chicago and Kansas City, indicating fresh selling interest, while no new deliveries were registered against Chicago wheat and only a small number against KC contracts. Fundamentally, US wheat export inspections remain modest at 384,881 tons for the week to 27 November, with Vietnam and Mexico as key destinations, even as marketing-year shipments are running about 20% ahead of last year. Delayed export sales data show nearly 500,000 tons of wheat sold in the week of 23 October, sharply higher than both the previous week and the same period a year ago, and new demand from Algeria’s tender for 50,000 tons of soft milling wheat plus South Korea’s purchase of 65,000 tons provide incremental support. Kansas winter wheat crop ratings have improved, with 66% now in good to excellent condition and the Brugler500 index edging higher, tempering concerns about US supply even as some northern winter wheat areas flirt with winterkill temperatures under protective snow cover.

Corn

US corn is trading slightly firmer in early Tuesday action, with the December 2025 CBOT contract quoted near $4.32 3/4 per bushel, rebounding modestly after giving back part of last week’s rally on Monday. Overnight moves left futures roughly unchanged, but the market remains down about 5.3% year-to-date, while the national average cash corn price has eased back to $3.99 per bushel. Open interest declined by more than 8,700 contracts on Monday, concentrated in the front months, and another 76 deliveries were issued against the December contract, underscoring a market still digesting old-crop supplies. On the demand side, weekly US export inspections came in at a solid 1.421 million tons, up nearly 50% from the same week a year earlier, though down from the prior week, with Japan, Mexico and Colombia leading as destinations. Cumulative corn exports for 2025/26 now stand at 18.97 million tons, more than 70% above last year’s pace, while total corn sales (shipped plus unshipped) are running 37% higher year on year at 35.37 million tons, despite a weekly sales slowdown to 1.8 million tons and some forward business already booked for 2026/27.

Soybeans

Soybeans are showing relative strength early Tuesday, with the January 2026 CBOT contract trading around $11.28 per bushel, recovering part of Monday’s 9 3/4-cent decline as futures sit more than 13% higher year-to-date. Overnight gains of about 4 1/4 cents and firmer Chinese and Malaysian vegoil markets are lending support, though the national average cash soybean price has slipped to $10.57 1/2 per bushel. Open interest fell by over 3,100 contracts on Monday, with a notable reduction in January positions, while soymeal futures weakened and soyoil posted solid gains, reflecting an ongoing shift in crush margins and product spreads. Weekly US soybean export inspections reached 920,194 tons, up on the week but less than half of last year’s volume for the same period and, importantly, with no shipments to China; Italy, Egypt and Mexico were the main buyers. Marketing-year exports since 1 September now total 11.87 million tons, running about 45.6% below last year, even as delayed export sales data showed a robust 1.45 million tons of new soybean sales in the week of 23 October and stronger-than-expected soymeal (640,021 tons) and soyoil (29,820 tons) bookings, underscoring that product demand is partially offsetting weaker whole-bean flows.

Global Market Drivers and Key Headlines

Heavy interplay between futures, cash and vegoil markets is shaping today’s global grain tone. In Chicago, wheat, corn and soybeans show mixed performance week-to-date, with wheat under pressure and soybeans still positive for the year, while soymeal is slightly higher and soyoil has rallied nearly 31% year-to-date. Chinese January agricultural futures are mixed, with soybeans slightly higher, soymeal softer, and soyoil and palm oil firmer, mirroring gains in Malaysian palm oil, which is up 63 ringgit (about 1.5%) to 4,157. Rising vegoil prices tighten the oilseed complex and can lend underlying support to soybeans and canola, especially when combined with robust soyoil open interest and steady registrations, even as the US board sees some net liquidation in beans and meal.

Weather remains a central driver for both wheat and coarse grains across key producing regions. In North America, northern US winter wheat areas are seeing winterkill-level temperatures, but ample snow cover is expected to protect the crop, while the Northern Plains stay mostly dry with isolated snow and below-normal temperatures. The Central and Southern Plains face isolated showers and persistently below-normal temperatures early in the week before trending closer to normal later on, conditions that influence soil moisture and establishment for winter wheat and, indirectly, spring planting potential. Across South Asia, cool and dry weather over India’s major wheat regions is supporting the timely completion of planting over the next 10–15 days, reinforcing expectations for solid 2026 output, while in Southeast Asia, heavy flooding rains in northern Sumatra and Peninsular Malaysia may disrupt palm oil logistics and fieldwork, feeding into the broader vegoil complex.

South American weather is sharply bifurcated and is one of the most important watch-points for today’s trading session. Heavy, persistent rains continue across central Brazil, particularly in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and southern Goias, where scattered showers dominate the forecast through Friday with near-normal temperatures—conditions that generally favour soy and first-crop corn development but also risk waterlogging and replanting in some areas. In contrast, Argentina’s Pampas are seeing much drier conditions, with only isolated showers across Cordoba, Santa Fe and Buenos Aires and temperatures moving from below normal to above normal mid-week, a pattern that raises concerns for mature wheat and early summer crops and follows recent hailstorms that have already posed a local threat to Argentine wheat yields. Southern Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul and Parana, key areas for soybeans and corn, are trending mostly dry after early-week scattered showers, making moisture trends there another key variable for world supply expectations.

Export flows and demand indicators from the US remain crucial for price discovery. Weekly USDA inspections show corn exports staying strong versus last year, soybeans recovering week-on-week but well below year-ago levels, and wheat shipments improving versus 2024 but still modest overall. Japan leads in corn inspections, Vietnam in wheat, and Italy in soybeans, highlighting robust demand from a diversified set of buyers even as China remains conspicuously absent from recent US soybean shipment and sales data. Delayed export sales figures for the week ending 23 October reinforce that dynamic: corn sales slowed but stayed sizeable, soybean sales surprised to the upside yet lag last year, and soymeal and soyoil sales both exceeded trade expectations. Together, these numbers paint a picture of an oilseed complex increasingly driven by meal and oil rather than raw bean exports, and a corn market where US origin is highly competitive and gaining share.

Brazil’s planting pace and crop prospects are another major anchor for today’s sentiment. Consulting firm AgRural estimates that 89% of Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean area had been planted by 27 November, slightly behind last year’s 91% but comfortably ahead of the prior week, with uneven rainfall in the Cerrado leaving pockets of dryness in Mato Grosso, Goias, Maranhao and Piaui. Summer corn in the Center-South is practically all in the ground at 99% planted, ahead of both last week and last year. On the production side, Patria Agronegocios nudged its 2025/26 soybean output forecast up to 171.89 million tons, around 1.4% above 2024/25, with planted area seen at 48.58 million hectares; yet it notes that this area growth is the smallest in decades and that climate irregularities continue to challenge the start of the new harvest. StoneX, by contrast, trimmed its soybean forecast to 177.2 million tons and cut the total corn crop outlook to 134.4 million tons, citing irregular rainfall in key states and possible delays in soybean harvesting that could push back second-crop corn planting—factors that keep a weather risk premium in both soybean and corn futures.

Black Sea and South American exporter dynamics are sending mixed signals on medium-term wheat and corn supply. In Russia, Argus projects 2026/27 wheat production at about 86.5 million tons, slightly below the 2025/26 crop but in line with the five-year average, with winter wheat output expected to edge higher to 62 million tons even as winter sowing slows due to autumn rains and some farmers shift acreage toward more profitable oilseeds. Soil moisture has been replenished in most wheat-producing regions, including drought-affected areas such as Rostov and parts of Krasnodar, which supports yield potential for winter crops. In Ukraine, November agricultural exports rose 12% month-on-month to around 5 million tons, mainly driven by higher grain shipments, while the economy ministry reports 12.38 million tons of grain exported so far in 2025/26 versus nearly 18 million tons at this time last year. At the same time, the 2026 wheat harvest is officially projected at 24–25 million tons, up from 23 million in 2025, with 4.7 million hectares of winter wheat already sown and no export restrictions anticipated for the 2025/26 marketing year—collectively signalling that Black Sea competition will remain intense in wheat and corn export markets.

Paraguay and Argentina add further nuance to South American supply expectations, especially in soybeans and corn. Paraguay’s first 2026 soybean harvest is now expected to start several weeks later than normal, in the second half of January, after cool weather slowed early crop development, though industry group Capeco still sees combined output from the two yearly harvests near the 10-million-ton mark recorded in 2025. Soil moisture is generally adequate, aided by good rains during planting, but some regions now need additional rainfall, and a delayed first harvest could compress the window for a second soybean crop or a switch to corn, potentially trimming regional supply. Paraguay’s second corn harvest this year exceeded 6 million tons, and high water levels on the Paraguay and Parana rivers are currently facilitating barge traffic, supporting export flows and helping move both grains and oilseeds efficiently to global markets.

Brazil’s domestic wheat market is under notable pressure, with implications for regional trade flows and pricing. The sector is closely watching Argentina’s harvest, where the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange projects a record 25.5 million tons of wheat, up 1.5 million tons from previous estimates and surpassing the prior record from 2021/22. This surge in Argentine supply, coupled with a weaker US dollar versus the Brazilian real, has reinforced downward pressure on Brazilian wheat prices. In November, Cepea data show wheat prices in Paraná averaging BRL 1,196.69 per ton, the lowest since October 2023 and sharply below year-ago levels in real terms; Rio Grande do Sul prices are at their weakest since early 2018, and Santa Catarina has also seen significant year-on-year declines, with only São Paulo showing a small monthly rise but still a steep annual drop. Wholesale prices between processors mostly eased in southern states, and prices paid to farmers were stable or slightly lower, signalling comfortable local supply and strong competitive pressure from Argentine exports into Brazil.

Longer-term structural shifts in Russia and short-term logistics and export developments elsewhere add extra layers to the global balance sheet. Russia’s second-largest bank, VTB, plans to consolidate nationalised farming assets in the south into a major agricultural holding, Agrocomplex Labinski, which controls 240,000 hectares and produces grains, milk, sugar and other products, exporting up to 400,000 tons of grains and oilseeds annually. The strategy is to expand domestic processing and higher value-added grain products, with a potential sale of the holding later on—moves that signal continued state-linked consolidation of Russian agriculture and could reinforce Russia’s influence in global grain trade. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s farm export lobby expects the current brisk export pace to continue into December, particularly for corn as harvesting progresses, while another set of tenders and import demand from North Africa and Asia keeps seaborne trade active. Together, these factors underscore a market where Black Sea and South American origins remain central in pricing benchmarks for wheat, corn and oilseeds.

On the demand and cross-commodity side, animal protein and disease dynamics are quietly shaping feed and oilseed usage expectations. US commercial beef and pork production fell 2.6% year-on-year in October, with beef output down 5.7% and pork up 0.3%, hinting at slightly softer overall feed demand from cattle but steady to firm usage from hogs. Export sales data show Mexico as the dominant buyer of US soybeans and corn in the week of 23 October, and a major buyer of US pork as well, underlining its importance as a key regional demand hub. In Europe, Spain—one of the EU’s largest pork producers—is mobilising to contain an African swine fever outbreak in wild boar near Barcelona but has confirmed with China that pork exports can resume from regions unaffected by the virus under an existing regionalisation protocol. Given that China accounts for 42% of Spain’s non-EU pork exports and Spain is the bloc’s top producer, maintaining these flows is critical for global pork supply and, by extension, for feed demand for grains and oilseeds, a factor that markets will keep in focus alongside evolving disease-control measures.