Chicago wheat futures extended their recovery on Thursday, with the December 2025 CBOT contract closing at $5.41 per bushel, up 3¼ cents on the day. Winter wheat led the move, as Chicago SRW finished 2–3 cents higher and Kansas City HRW gained 4–5 cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat slipped 3–4 cents in the front months. Fresh USDA export sales of about 505,000 tons for the week ending 31 October landed in the middle of expectations but marked a three-week high, reinforcing demand at current levels. On the supply side, Statistics Canada sharply raised its 2025 wheat production estimate to 39.96 million tons, up 3.3 million tons from September and comfortably above the 38.49-million-ton consensus, driven largely by a 10.3% year-on-year increase in spring wheat to 29.26 million tons.

Corn futures also firmed, with the December 2025 CBOT contract settling at $4.37¾ per bushel, up 6¼ cents as the market digested a strong set of weekly export figures. The cmdtyView national average US cash corn price rose 4 cents to $4.02¾, hinting at improved country-level demand. USDA’s delayed export sales report showed 1.99 million tons of corn sold in the week of 30 October, toward the upper end of trade ideas and the third-largest weekly total of the marketing year, comfortably above the prior week’s pace. Daily reporting also captured private sales of 100,800 tons to Colombia and 392,500 tons to Mexico, underscoring Latin America’s continued appetite for US corn even as Brazil remains a formidable competitor. Brazilian trade ministry data put November corn exports at 5.03 million tons, 6.5% above last year but 22.6% below October; shipper group ANEC sees December shipments at 4.99 million tons, well above the 3.62 million tons moved a year earlier. Statistics Canada, by contrast, pegs 2025 Canadian corn output at 14.87 million tons, down 3.1% on the year.

Soybean futures finished Thursday higher as well, with January 2026 CBOT soybeans closing at $11.19½ per bushel, up 3¾ cents, while the cmdtyView national average cash bean price gained 3¾ cents to $10.49¾. Soymeal futures were mixed, trading from $0.30 higher to $0.90 lower across contracts, and soyoil ended the day steady to 18 points firmer. USDA reported 1.248 million tons of soybean export sales for the week of 30 October, mid-range versus expectations of 0.6–2 million tons but still 13.9% below the prior week and nearly 49% under the same week last year. China reappeared as a buyer with 232,000 tons booked in that week, yet overall volumes remain subdued. Soymeal sales slipped to 219,830 tons, at the low end of the 200,000–450,000-ton range, while soyoil bookings reached just 4,664 tons, shy of the 5,000–25,000-ton consensus. Statistics Canada lifted its canola production estimate for 2025/26 to 21.8 million tons, 1.3% above last year and 1.8 million tons above the September report, while soybean production there is seen falling 10.2% to 6.79 million tons. Brazil’s trade ministry reported 4.2 million tons of soybean exports in November, down 37.6% from October but 64.4% higher than a year earlier, and ANEC projects December shipments at 2.81 million tons, about 1.34 million tons above last year if realized.

Across the broader futures landscape, price action and positioning painted a picture of cautious but stabilizing sentiment. Overnight moves ahead of Thursday’s close had left SRW and HRW wheat fractionally higher, corn down three-quarters of a cent and soybeans up 2¼ cents, with soymeal adding $1.60 and soyoil slightly lower. For the week to date, wheat was flat in SRW, up 2 cents in HRW and unchanged in HRS, while corn was down 5 cents, soybeans nearly 20 cents lower, soymeal down $6.50 and soyoil off 0.43 cents. On a year-to-date basis, nearby futures remain under pressure in wheat and corn, but soybeans are up 12%, soymeal slightly positive and soyoil almost 30% higher, underscoring robust demand in the vegetable oil complex. Chinese January 2026 agricultural futures are firmer in corn but weaker in soybeans, soymeal, soyoil and palm oil, while Malaysian palm oil closed at 4,106 ringgit after a 47-ringgit decline, trading near multi-month lows amid comfortable stocks. Open interest data show fresh capital flowing into SRW wheat, soybeans and soyoil and easing in HRW wheat, corn and soymeal, hinting at a subtle shift toward grains and parts of the oilseed complex even as some funds lighten corn exposure.

Ukraine remains a central macro driver after the Ukrainian Grain Association projected that grain and oilseed exports could reach 49 million tons in the 2025/26 marketing season, up from 46.7 million tons last year. The outlook assumes a wheat crop of around 22.5 million tons with potential exports of 16.5 million tons, a 24% jump in corn output to 32 million tons with 25 million tons available for shipment, and a 13% smaller barley harvest at 4.9 million tons, with exports near 2.3 million tons. Sunflower seed output is seen at 11.5 million tons versus 12.8 million tons previously. This profile confirms Ukraine as a key Black Sea supplier but comes with a caveat: Russian strikes on energy infrastructure, ports and railways still threaten to choke off logistics and prevent Kyiv from fully realizing its export potential, a risk premium that markets cannot ignore.

Weather and climate teleconnections are adding their own layer of uncertainty to global balance sheets. In North America, repeated cold air outbreaks will keep the main storm track confined to the far southern United States until at least mid-next-week, leaving most winter wheat regions under a relatively quiet but cold regime. In East Asia, warm and dry conditions across China’s major winter wheat belts into mid-December remain broadly favourable for the dormant crop, while in Africa, cool and wet weather over South Africa in the next one to two weeks should benefit early maize development and underpin regional feed-grain availability. Overlaying these regional patterns is a still-negative Indian Ocean Dipole which, despite some weakening in November, is expected to maintain a drier-than-normal bias from Argentina into southern Brazil for as long as it persists, directly affecting key corn and soybean areas.

South American conditions are increasingly important for price discovery as crops move through early development. Argentina faces hot and predominantly dry weather for the foreseeable future, with only a patchy front expected this weekend into early next week. Recent episodes of heavy rain sandwiched between long dry spells have already created highly variable conditions for developing corn and soybeans, and a renewed stretch of heat and dryness heightens downside yield risks that are gaining traders’ attention. In Brazil, by contrast, a stalled front over central regions is at last generating more meaningful showers than models had predicted in recent weeks, offering some relief to soybean fields entering flowering under limited soil moisture. Farther south, soil moisture is still generally adequate but a clear drop in rainfall frequency has started a slow drying process that could become problematic if it extends over the next couple of weeks. Nearby Paraguay is expected to experience moderate and largely favourable conditions over the next one to two weeks, supporting local corn and soybean prospects and partially offsetting stress elsewhere in the region.

Australia, another major player in wheat and rapeseed exports, is transitioning into a period of widespread warmth and dryness that may last for at least the next two to three weeks. Temperatures are forecast to build over the coming 10 days before any temporary moderation, and rainfall is set to be scarce across most key cropping zones. In the short term, this pattern should facilitate the completion of the wheat and rapeseed harvest and limit quality downgrades from late-season rains. However, as the warm, dry trend continues, it raises questions about soil moisture going into the next planting cycle and about pasture and feed availability into 2026, factors that could influence both grain area decisions and feed demand in the new season.

On the demand side, energy-linked usage continues to send strong but nuanced signals. The latest US Department of Energy report showed ethanol plants lifting output to a record 1.126 million barrels per day in the week ending 28 November, a 13,000-barrel week-on-week increase, even as stocks climbed 2.5% to 22.511 million barrels, above market expectations. Exports rose by 48,000 barrels per day to 170,000, but this was not enough to fully offset higher production given a simultaneous 28,000-barrel decline in refiner inputs. For corn, the numbers underscore robust industrial demand but also hint at periodic price pressure if growing ethanol inventories are not matched by sustained export growth or domestic blending, particularly in a year when futures are already down nearly 6%.

China-centred trade flows remain one of the most closely watched themes across soybeans and feed grains. After months of subdued activity following a tense tariff war, at least six US soybean cargoes are scheduled to load at Gulf Coast terminals for China through mid-December, with a seventh vessel already en route – the first such shipment since May. These are the first physical deliveries associated with a broader package of purchases signalled after talks between Presidents Trump and Xi in South Korea in late October, easing some fears that previously reported deals might be cancelled or switched to cheaper Brazilian origin. Nevertheless, benchmark CBOT soybean futures fell for a third straight session on Wednesday amid concerns that China will miss its 12-million-ton purchase target by year-end; USDA has confirmed only 2.25 million tons of Chinese buying so far for 2025/26, and even estimates of 3–4 million tons including smaller and undisclosed deals remain well below pre-trade-war volumes. In parallel, US sorghum shipments to China have restarted for the first time since March, with one vessel loading at a Texas Gulf terminal and another due to load in the Pacific Northwest next week, suggesting a cautious recovery in broader US feed-grain flows to China.

Russia is emerging as an increasingly powerful force in the oilseed and feed markets, with record meal exports projected against a backdrop of changing domestic dynamics. The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) expects Russian exports of high-protein meals from sunflower, rapeseed and soybeans to reach 4.4 million tons in 2025/26, up from 3.9 million tons last season, supported by a combined oilseed harvest of 32–33 million tons that would itself be a record. Sunflower output is forecast at 16.6–16.8 million tons, rapeseed at 5.43 million tons and soybeans at 9.35 million tons, leaving Russia fully self-sufficient in soybeans and soybean meal in its European part for the first time. That self-sufficiency is generating a significant surplus that must find export outlets, but a 20% duty on soybean exports means much of the excess is likely to leave as meal, forcing domestic prices below export parity to stay competitive. Soybean prices have already dropped across Russian regions, falling below flax values, and reports from the Far East indicate levels under 25 rubles per kilogram amid weak Chinese buying and high transport costs, putting serious pressure on local producers.

Broader Russian agricultural data and Brazil’s animal protein outlook add further texture to the feed-grain and oilseed demand picture. Rosstat reports that Russian agricultural organizations cut grain sales by 15.8% year-on-year to 54.6 million tons in the first ten months of 2025, despite October sales being 4.3% higher than a year earlier, suggesting commercialization is lagging even with large crops. At the same time, sales of livestock and poultry in live weight rose 0.9% to 11.5 million tons, milk sales climbed 4.4% to 17.5 million tons and egg sales increased 6.7% to 29.7 billion units in the same period, indicating steady or growing domestic feed demand. In Brazil, industry group ABPA expects chicken exports to rise by up to 3.4% in 2026 to 5.5 million tons, with production up 2% to 15.6 million tons; pork exports are seen 4% higher at 1.55 million tons, with production up 2.7% to 5.7 million tons, and egg exports forecast to jump 12.5% to as much as 45,000 tons. These projections imply continued strong consumption of corn and oilseed meals in one of the world’s largest feed markets. Against that, the Amazonian state of Pará has postponed the deadline for mandatory cattle tracking from 2026–2027 out to 2030, delaying full implementation of a key deforestation-control tool and raising questions over the pace of sustainability measures in Brazil’s beef sector – a factor that could influence future land use, the balance between pasture and crop area, and ultimately long-term grain and oilseed production decisions.