Wheat prices in Chicago began Tuesday’s session under pressure, with September 2025 CBOT contracts opening at $5.00 per bushel. The market showed weakness across all U.S. exchanges, with Kansas City hard red winter and Minneapolis spring wheat also trading lower overnight. Speculative positioning reflected growing pressure from Russia’s drought-hit regions but also from the country’s overall strong harvest outlook, reinforcing its dominant export role in the global wheat market.
Corn futures opened Tuesday at $3.81 ¾ per bushel for the September 2025 contract, slipping again after modest weakness to start the week. Pressure stemmed from ongoing harvest progress in Brazil, strong global competition, and mixed crop condition ratings in the United States. Despite this, fresh optimism emerged from Pro Farmer’s crop tour, which found better-than-expected yields in South Dakota, highlighting potential resilience of U.S. corn even in areas previously stressed by dry conditions.
Soybeans opened at $10.21 ½ per bushel for the September 2025 contract, trading slightly higher after Monday’s mild setback. Gains were underpinned by record July crush data and still-tight stock-to-use ratios in the United States, though mixed signals in weather forecasts kept sentiment cautious. Traders balanced optimism over domestic demand against risks from drier trends in parts of the Midwest, which could hinder late-season pod filling.
Global supply dynamics continued to dominate headlines as Ukraine’s harvest outlook brightened further. Abundant July rainfall sharply boosted projected corn yields, with local estimates pointing to a 2025 crop of nearly 31 million tons, well above last year and stronger than government projections. This reinforces Ukraine’s competitive positioning in export markets at a time when U.S. shipments are facing logistical and price pressures.
Brazil’s domestic corn market remained weighed down by record supplies and storage bottlenecks. Farmers and traders continue to anticipate weaker prices as the harvest nears completion, with the CEPEA index edging lower last week. Even as domestic wholesale markets showed slight firmness, farm-gate prices slipped further, reinforcing bearish sentiment for international corn trade and export parity.
Weather developments once again played a critical role in shaping sentiment. Argentina’s Pampas region was hit by excessive rainfall, raising risks of flooding and potential damage to early-stage wheat from waterlogging and disease. This contrasts with southern Brazil, where heavy rains were seen as largely neutral for crops, and with the Canadian Prairies, where additional showers and frost threats could complicate harvest prospects in the coming weeks.
The Black Sea region remains a focal point of concern, with ongoing drought conditions in southwestern Russia and limited rainfall expected through late August. These developments heighten risks for spring wheat and corn yields, potentially tightening supplies later in the season despite Russia’s otherwise strong harvest projections. Dryness across the area may also influence sunflower output, adding further volatility to oilseed markets.
In South Asia, heavy monsoon rains across western India increased flood risks, particularly in Gujarat and neighboring areas. While beneficial for replenishing soil moisture, excessive rainfall threatens infrastructure and could disrupt local agricultural activity. Similarly, in the tropics, Hurricane Erin weakened to Category 3 but continues to pose risks of heavy rains and coastal disruptions along the U.S. East Coast, with potential ripple effects on export logistics.
Finally, North African grain demand remains in focus, as Egypt continues its domestic wheat procurement drive, now totaling 3.94 million tons for the season. This represents an increase from last year and underscores the country’s continued reliance on imports from the Black Sea and Europe. Procurement levels will play an important role in shaping near-term import needs and global wheat trade flows.