Wheat futures ended Friday with mixed movements across the major U.S. exchanges. The September 2025 CBOT wheat contract closed at $5.06½ per bushel, up 3 cents on the day, though still down 8 cents for the week. Kansas City HRW wheat managed small gains of 2 to 3 cents on Friday, while Minneapolis spring wheat slipped back by 2 to 3 cents. Commitment of Traders data revealed managed money funds expanding their net short positions in Chicago wheat to nearly 90,000 contracts. Despite recent export pressure, cumulative U.S. wheat sales for the marketing year reached 11.03 million metric tons, the strongest for this week since 2013/14 and meeting 46% of USDA’s annual forecast.

Corn markets regained ground on Friday as the September 2025 contract closed at $3.83¾ per bushel, up 8¾ cents. The rally allowed September corn to finish the week with a marginal penny gain despite the heavy bearishness introduced earlier in the week by USDA’s higher supply outlook. Old crop U.S. corn export commitments now total 70.53 MMT, representing 98% of USDA’s target, while new crop sales stand at 13.82 MMT, the second-largest on record for this point in the year. Speculative funds remain heavily short, with net positions exceeding 176,000 contracts. Weather remains key, with limited precipitation forecast across much of the Corn Belt, although parts of the Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin may benefit from localized showers.

Soybeans posted the strongest recovery to end the week, as the September 2025 contract settled at $10.22¼ per bushel, up 14¾ cents on the day and more than 54 cents higher for the week. The rally was driven by robust demand signals and fresh data on crushing activity. NOPA reported a record July crush of 195.7 million bushels, surpassing expectations and marking the highest monthly total since January. Soybean oil stocks reached 1.378 billion pounds, slightly above June but 14.7% below last year, underscoring strong utilization. Despite weak Chinese demand, total U.S. soybean sales commitments now stand at 51.1 MMT, in line with USDA’s annual projection.

Global supply dynamics continue to shift with Australia raising its wheat harvest outlook. GIWA increased Western Australia’s expected wheat output to 11.5 million tons for 2025/26, alongside stronger barley and canola forecasts. Nationally, Australia’s wheat crop is now projected near 34 million tons, rivaling last year’s record and contributing to the abundant global supply that has pressured prices to five-year lows earlier in the week.

Weather remains a pivotal factor across all major growing regions. The Northern Plains and Midwest in the U.S. are seeing beneficial rains for corn and soybeans but continued harvest and quality challenges for wheat. The Delta and Lower Mississippi regions remain patchy, with dry areas threatening late-stage filling for corn, soybeans, and cotton. In Canada, heavy rains are helping late crops but delaying early harvest progress. Across Europe, hot and dry weather is stressing corn yields, although it supports the final stages of wheat harvest. The Black Sea remains largely dry, intensifying drought stress as corn fills and harvest continues.

South America’s outlook remains broadly positive. Brazil’s soybean production estimate was lifted to 169.7 million tons, with higher yields and planted area underpinning strong export potential. Corn output is also being supported by strong second-crop estimates. In Argentina, wheat remains vegetative and resilient to recent cold weather, though rainfall is needed as heading approaches. Corn acreage expansion of up to 20% is still expected for the 2025/26 season, reinforcing Southern Hemisphere competition later this year.

In Asia, China’s weather remains mixed. Northeastern regions are enjoying favorable conditions, while the North China Plain faces ongoing heat risks. The government has injected 1.1 billion yuan in disaster relief funds to stabilize autumn grain production. Meanwhile, tensions with Canada continue to reverberate across oilseed markets, as tariffs on canola have stranded hundreds of thousands of tons of meal at Chinese ports and triggered rerouting at steep discounts. Futures markets for rapeseed meal and oil in China remain highly volatile as supply chains adjust.

Trade flows continue to demonstrate shifting competition. Russia’s seaborne wheat exports fell 40% year-on-year in July amid lower output and quotas, while the EU and Australia expand market presence. U.S. weekly export sales reflected softer demand, with corn sales falling sharply from the previous week, wheat down slightly, and soybean commitments easing but still substantial. Mexico remained the largest U.S. corn buyer, while South Korea led wheat purchases.

In India, strong monsoon rains have replenished reservoirs and lifted prospects for winter-sown crops such as wheat and rapeseed. Officials anticipate higher planting and possibly record harvests, which could lead to the easing of wheat export restrictions and reduced edible oil imports. This adds another layer of competition in global grain and oilseed markets.

U.S. transportation data also underscored seasonal trends, with Mississippi River barge shipments rising to 853,000 tons for the week ending August 9. Corn shipments fell by 9% week-on-week, while soybean shipments jumped by 27%, easing some logistical concerns ahead of the autumn harvest.

Overall, the grain markets closed the week balancing a record U.S. soybean crush, stronger Australian harvest outlooks, ongoing Black Sea dryness, and shifting trade flows. Prices remain caught between abundant supply signals and strong underlying demand for oilseeds and feed grains, setting the stage for heightened volatility as the Northern Hemisphere harvests advance.