Grain Highlights 11.09.2024

IKAR has lowered its forecast for Russia's sunseed production in 2024 from 17.3 million tons to 15.45 million tons.

- IKAR has lowered its forecast for Russia's sunseed production in 2024 from 17.3 million tons to 15.45 million tons. The soybean production is expected to reach 6.8 million tons (unchanged from 2023), and rapeseed production is projected within 5.15 - 5.2 million tons (4.2 million tons previously).

- As of September 11, 2024, Russia has harvested 97 million tons of grain, including 72 million tons of wheat. The total grain production is expected to reach 132 million tons. In 2023, the production was 143 million tons.

- For the week starting September 11, 2024, the export tax on Russian wheat is 906.4 rubles/ton (down from 1,115.7 the previous week), barley remains duty-free. The export tax on corn will be 502.7 rubles/ton (down from 724.5).

- Between July 1 and September 11, 2024, Ukraine exported 8.187 million tons of grain (5.37 million tons in the same period last year), including 894,000 tons in September (783,000 last year). Wheat exports were 4.293 million tons (700,000), barley exports reached 1.163 million tons (50,000), and corn exports were 2.48 million tons (7.7). It is notable that the September 2024 results are closely approaching those of September 2023, which is attributed to the acceleration of exports in September 2023 when the Russian blockade of the Black Sea was overcome.

- In July, Australia exported 1.5 million tons of wheat (+19% compared to June and +44% compared to July 2023). The largest buyers were Indonesia with 281,930 tons, Yemen with 219,340 tons, the Philippines with 209,030 tons, South Africa with 114,180 tons, and South Korea with 111,570 tons. Only 4,250 tons of wheat were exported to China. Since the start of the 2023/24 season, exports have reached 17.6 million tons, with Abares forecasting 22.46 million tons for the entire season.

- According to a FAS USDA forecast, India’s soybean production in 2024/25 will reach a record 12.8 million tons (+0.1 compared to the record in 2023/24). Soybean processing will amount to 12.7 million tons (12.6).

- On September 10, 2024, Egypt’s state company GASC purchased 69,700 tons of sunseed oil at prices of 1,045 – 1,047 USD/ton C&F, with deliveries within November-December. Additionally, 6,000 tons of soyoil were purchased from the domestic market at a price of 992.76 USD/ton.

- North African countries are seeking to replace wheat deliveries from France with other sources. In 2024, France’s wheat production is projected to be the lowest in 40 years – 25.17 million tons. The combined wheat production of Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia will be 5.7 million tons (7.3 in 2023). Total consumption in the region will reach 32 million tons, which will lead to imports of 19.5 million tons (17.1 previously).