Grain Highlights 17.09.2024

According to the latest forecast, in 2024, Canada's rapeseed production will be 18.98 million tons (-11% compared to 2023), and the soybean production will be 7.2 million tons (+3.1%).

- In 2024, Ukraine may harvest its largest soybean production, which is forecasted by APK-Inform to be 5.9–6 million tons. About 57% of the production will be exported. Due to the large supply of cheap soybeans from the United States and South America, Ukrainian prices are now at 380–385 USD/ton CPT port.

- As of September 16, 2024, 61% of the planned winter rapeseed planting areas have been sown in Ukraine. Winter grains have been planted on 7% of the planned areas (11.4% in 2023), including 8% of winter wheat and 3% of winter barley.

- As of September 12, 2024, sunseed harvesting campaign in Ukraine has been completed on 30% of the areas, with almost 3 million tons of sunseed harvested at an average yield of 1.98 tons/hectare (1.78 a week earlier). Soybeans have been harvested on 34% of the areas, with 1.85 million tons of soybeans harvested at a yield of 2.03 tons/hectare (1.86 earlier).

- According to OieoScope data, between January and August, Russia’s oilseed exports amounted to 1.93 million tons (-33% compared to the previous year). Sunseed exports totaled 186,000 tons (-13%), soybean exports were 584,000 tons (-34%), and rapeseed exports reached 457,000 tons (-29%). Exports of vegetable oils reached 4.99 million tons (+10%), including sunseed oil exports of 3.77 million tons (+26%), soyoil exports of 503,000 tons (+18%), and rapeseed oil exports of 705,000 tons (-36%). Vegetable meal exports totaled 2.91 million tons (+7%), including sunseed meal exports of 1.98 million tons (+24%), soymeal exports of 651,000 tons (+19%), and rapeseed meal exports of 271,000 tons (-50%).

- According to a forecast by the Ministry of Agriculture of France, the 2024 soft wheat production will total 25.78 million tons (26.32 million in the August estimate and -27% compared to 2023/24), barley production is projected at 10.05 million tons (10.40 and -18%), corn production is expected at 14.39 million tons (14.01 and +11%), and rapeseed production is estimated at 3.95 million tons (3.94 and -8%).

- According to NASS data, as of September 15, 2024, 6% of the planned soybean planting areas in the United States have been sown (4% a year earlier and 3% on average over the past five years). Corn has been harvested from 9% of the areas (8% and 6%), and spring wheat from 92% of the areas (91% and 90%). Winter wheat for the 2025/26 crop has been sown on 14% of the planned areas (13% and 13%).

- According to a forecast by the Rosario Grain Exchange, in 2024/25, soybean areas in Argentina will increase by 7.5% to 17.7 million hectares, with a production of 52–53 million tons. Corn acreage will be 8 million hectares (-21%), with a production of 51–52 million tons. US soybean prices are so low that Argentine processors have purchased 88,400 tons of soybeans from the United States.