USDA’s data package was the clear market mover today: higher U.S. corn production and materially larger ending stocks lifted the supply overhang and triggered heavy selling across corn and soy futures. Traders reacted strongly to the production and stocks math, viewing today’s reports as a near-term pivot toward more ample U.S. supplies and a softer price outlook.

China’s continued buying of U.S. soybeans remained a live headline, with Sinograin confirmed to have purchased at least 10 cargoes for April–May shipment. While the purchases underpin demand for nearby soy and kept headline volatility elevated, they were not sufficient today to offset USDA’s larger U.S. carryout and the resulting sell-off in oilseed markets.

South American weather and crop progress offered a mixed backdrop. Forecasts calling for improving rainfall in Brazil and Argentina relieve some crop risk and cap upside for corn and soybeans; those improving prospects limited the extent of soy rallies that Chinese buying might otherwise have produced and added to the bearish tilt for global balance.

Vegetable-oil fundamentals provided offsetting signals. Malaysian palm-oil inventories jumped above 3.0 million tons, a bearish development for global veg-oil pricing, while soyoil rose on the day — reflecting the complex interaction between energy/biobfuel links and state buying. The cross-commodity tug kept crush margins and soy spread trades active and added complexity to the soy price response.

Black Sea conditions remained relevant for wheat but offered limited net support today. Cold, uneven snow cover in Ukraine keeps winterkill risk on the table and maintains logistical premium arguments, yet USDA’s global stocks lift and larger U.S. winter-wheat acreage tempered gains in Chicago futures. The result was a modest downside for wheat despite ongoing geopolitical/logistics concerns.

Export and shipment data painted a divergent picture across crops and did little to offset the report-driven moves. Strong weekly export inspections for corn and soy supported the demand narrative, but marketing-year totals and USDA’s lowered export forecasts for soy left traders weighing the pace of shipments against the new official balances. Overall, inspections were supportive but insufficient to reverse the report-induced pressure.

Fund positioning amplified the move. Managed money flows showed shifts that left markets sensitive to the USDA surprises; funds trimmed shorts in some contracts earlier but the heavier stocks numbers prompted rapid liquidation and widened the intraday moves across the complex. The combination of technical selling and the new carryout math pushed corn and soy lower by the mid-session close.

Wheat — Mar ’26 CBOT wheat: closed at $5.11, down 6 1/4 cents. Despite lingering Black Sea winterkill concerns and tight logistical pockets, USDA’s upward revision to some global stocks and the winter-wheat acreage read limited upside and left wheat trading with modest losses on the day.

Corn — Mar ’26 CBOT corn: closed at $4.29, down 16 3/4 cents. USDA’s Crop Production lifted U.S. production to 17.021 bbu and raised U.S. ending stocks to 2.227 bbu, prompting a sharp bearish reaction as the market repriced a larger domestic carryout despite strong weekly export inspections.

Soybeans — Jan ’26 CBOT soybeans: closed at $10.36 1/4, down 12 1/4 cents. Although Sinograin’s purchases and strong weekly soybean shipments provided support, USDA’s higher U.S. ending stocks (raised to 350 mbu after export reductions and crush tweaks) and the improving South American outlook pressured the complex into a down day.