Grain markets are opening Tuesday on the defensive following the bearish tone set by Monday’s USDA Crop Production, WASDE, and Grain Stocks reports. Larger U.S. corn and soybean production and sharply higher ending stocks remain the dominant narrative, keeping risk tilted to the downside despite some supportive demand signals.
Corn continues to carry the heaviest burden after USDA confirmed a record 2025 U.S. crop, reinforcing concerns about surplus supply. The Renewable Fuels Association highlighted the need for expanded ethanol policy support, including year-round E15 access, but policy advocacy is not yet translating into immediate price relief for corn futures.
Export demand offered limited counterweight. Weekly U.S. export inspections showed strong volumes for corn and soybeans, with corn inspections at 1.49 MMT and soybeans at 1.53 MMT, including sizable China-bound soybean shipments. While supportive on the margin, these flows have not been enough to offset the scale of USDA’s balance sheet revisions.
China remains active across multiple grains, boosting wheat imports from Australia and Argentina amid low global prices and selling out its latest 1.1 MMT soybean auction through Sinograin. The activity confirms underlying demand, but the market response has been muted as traders weigh ample global supply and the pace of follow-on buying.
South American weather remains a mixed influence. Dryness concerns persist across parts of central Brazil and the Pampas, though near-term forecasts include scattered showers that may stabilize crop conditions. These weather risks are supportive in theory but are currently secondary to global supply pressure.
Vegetable oil markets continue to send conflicting signals. Palm oil prices slipped overnight as Malaysian inventories remain elevated, while soyoil traded firmer, supported by biodiesel policy discussions in Indonesia and shifting import demand from India toward soyoil and sunflower oil. The divergence keeps crush economics volatile and soy spreads active.
In the Black Sea, geopolitical risk remains present after reports of Russian drone attacks on vessels carrying agricultural products near Ukrainian ports. However, higher Russian and Ukrainian export projections and logistical complexity have limited the immediate bullish impact on wheat markets.
Today’s trade is expected to stay reactive, with participants watching follow-through fund selling, additional export headlines, and any shift in weather forecasts that could meaningfully alter supply expectations after USDA’s reset.
Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat is starting the session down 1 3/4 cents after closing Monday at $5.11 1/4, down 6 cents. Early pressure reflects lingering fallout from higher U.S. and global wheat stocks, partially offset by stronger export inspections and ongoing Black Sea risk.
Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn is trading down 2 3/4 cents early following a Monday close at $4.21 1/2, down 24 1/4 cents. Record U.S. production and sharply higher ending stocks remain the primary drag, with export sales and ethanol demand discussions providing only limited support.
Soybeans: Jan ’26 CBOT soybeans are little changed early after finishing Monday at $10.33, down 15 1/2 cents. Strong export inspections and Sinograin’s sold-out auction underpin demand sentiment, but higher U.S. ending stocks and improving South American supply prospects continue to cap upside.