Chicago grain futures closed Thursday with a mixed tone, as wheat extended its multi-day rally on supportive export data and weather risk, corn posted marginal gains, and soybeans retreated after failing to hold early strength. Export sales, census trade data, and evolving South American weather patterns remained the dominant drivers shaping end-of-day positioning.

Wheat led the complex higher for a second consecutive session, supported by solid U.S. export demand and ongoing concerns over global supply balance. Weekly USDA Export Sales came in at 558,201 MT, down from the prior week but still more than 22% above the same week last year. Strong demand from Japan, Mexico, and Nigeria reinforced confidence that U.S. wheat remains competitive despite ample global stocks.

Additional support for wheat came from trade flow data. Census figures showed November wheat exports at 1.616 MMT, the highest November total in five years. That confirmation of physical movement helped validate the recent price recovery and kept buyers engaged into the close.

European supply signals were mixed but leaned supportive for prices. The European Commission trimmed its estimate of EU wheat production to 134.2 MMT, while raising ending stocks and lowering export projections to 29.5 MMT. Reduced export availability from the EU adds incremental support to U.S. wheat values, even as overall stocks remain comfortable.

Weather continued to underpin winter wheat sentiment. Forecasts still point to limited precipitation across large parts of the Southern Plains, with uneven snow cover leaving some areas exposed to cold stress. While certain regions benefit from insulation, the uneven protection keeps risk premium embedded in wheat prices.

Corn futures finished modestly higher, supported by export demand and firm trade flow data, though gains were restrained. Weekly corn export sales totaled 1.649 MMT, down from the prior week but still more than 21% above year-ago levels. Japan, Mexico, and Colombia remained key buyers, signaling sustained international demand.

Census data reinforced the constructive corn backdrop. November corn shipments reached 7.305 MMT, the second-largest November total on record and the strongest monthly performance since April. Ethanol exports also hit a November record at 211.33 million gallons, helping offset weaker distillers exports and supporting overall corn demand.

Soybeans, by contrast, lost momentum late in the session. USDA reported soybean export sales of 818,972 MT for the week ending January 22, sharply lower than the prior week but still more than double last year’s volume. While China was the top buyer, the week-on-week slowdown weighed on sentiment.

Trade flow data added pressure to soybeans. November soybean exports were reported at just 4.29 MMT, the lowest November total since 2007, highlighting continued weakness in physical movement. Although soybean meal sales were strong at 464,297 MT and oil sales were near the top of expectations, they were not enough to offset broader concerns about bean exports.

South American weather remained a background influence across the complex. Dryness persists across much of southern Argentina, with only sporadic rainfall expected near term, supporting longer-term oilseed and feed grain risk. However, the lack of immediate supply disruption allowed soybean futures to give back gains as traders focused on current export performance.

Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.41 1/2/bu, up 5 1/2 cents. Strength was driven by solid weekly export sales, supportive census trade data, and continued winter weather risk across the U.S. Plains.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn settled at $4.30 3/4/bu, up 3/4 cent. Gains were underpinned by steady export sales and strong November shipment data, with ethanol exports providing additional support.

Soybeans: Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans finished at $10.72 1/4/bu, down 2 3/4 cents. Futures were pressured by sharply lower November exports and a week-on-week slowdown in sales, despite strength in soybean meal demand.