This week’s dominant driver was export confirmation. U.S. inspection reports and USDA export-sales releases showed heavy physical movement that underpinned prices across the complex. Weekly inspections reported 1.51 MMT of corn and 1.324 MMT of soybeans, while wheat inspections were 351,001 MT for the week — levels that kept marketing-year shipments well above year-ago paces and validated recent rallies. That confirmation of physical demand was especially important for wheat and corn bids.

Wheat emerged as the clear relative winner through the week as a softer dollar, firm trade flows and persistent U.S. winter risk combined to sustain buying. Census and export-inspection numbers showing robust physical movement — including 1.616 MMT of November wheat exports in one month — lent credibility to the rally, while EU revisions trimming export availability reinforced U.S. competitiveness. These factors together favored nearby wheat longs and pressured marginal non-Black-Sea origins.

South American weather was the single largest structural wildcard. Persistent dryness across much of Argentina’s Pampas raised downside risk for late-stage corn and soybeans and supported a risk premium in oilseeds and feed grains. AG RURAL and AgRural notes all week showed accelerating dryness in southern Argentina and only sporadic short-term rains, while parts of central/eastern Brazil received more favorable rainfall — a split pattern that bolstered soymeal and feed-grain support even as overall Brazilian production estimates were revised higher.

Black Sea and large Russian exports continued to cap the upside for wheat. Commentary and official estimates indicating very large Russian shipments (with export potential cited in the sources) and plans to expand logistics hubs kept rallies measured by reminding markets of abundant competing supply. In short, while U.S. and EU data supported prices, the scale of Black Sea offers limited aggressive upside.

Ethanol and energy-linked demand produced an uneven backdrop for corn. EIA updates during the week showed a modest pullback in ethanol production to roughly 1.114 million bpd and a stock draw to about 25.4 million barrels — a mix that only partially offset concerns about ethanol-output volatility. That left corn fundamentals constructive on the export front but constrained the depth of any rally, making corn prone to intraday consolidation and profit-taking.

Product-market dynamics influenced soy pricing: soymeal strength driven by feed demand and Argentine heat/dryness supported nearby soy futures, while soy oil and slower fresh sales limited the rally’s breadth. China’s apparent shift toward additional Brazilian purchases after meeting near-term U.S. commitments also reduced immediate upside for U.S. beans by keeping a premium on U.S. origins versus cheaper Brazilian cargoes.

Trade-flow and census shipment confirmations tightened the physical-demand narrative. Strong November shipment figures for corn and wheat and record-like monthly movements in other categories demonstrated that logistics were moving grain — a tangible underpin that matters to commercials and funds. Those physical confirmations were a primary reason funds and commercials were willing to add length in wheat and, to a lesser extent, corn.

Technicals and positioning amplified fundamentals late in the week. Rising open interest in Chicago SRW and marked increases in corn open interest on some sessions signaled fresh buying rather than simple short-covering, particularly in wheat where open interest gains accompanied price advances. That technical backdrop made the market more sensitive to the next round of USDA flows and South American model updates.

Crop wrap — weekly view

Wheat: Wheat closed the week materially firmer, driven by steady U.S. export demand, robust inspection and census confirmations and continued winter-weather risk across U.S. Plains areas. While the immense competing Black Sea supply remains a moderating force, the week’s export and shipment data combined with reduced EU export availability supported a bullish tilt for nearby contracts. (Weekly closes and daily moves are documented in the week’s daily sources.)

Corn: Corn finished the week mixed-to-firmer but with limited upside as ethanol data and profit-taking clipped rallies. Weekly export inspections totaled about 1.51 MMT and marketing-year shipments remained more than 50% above year-ago levels, supporting the market even as South American planting/harvest progress and mixed ethanol signals kept prices range-bound.

Soybeans: Soybeans saw intraday strength tied to meal markets and Argentine weather anxiety, but momentum was capped by weaker export-sale flows and Chinese buying leaning into Brazilian supplies after meeting U.S. commitments. Weekly inspections of roughly 1.324 MMT and the export-sale profile left soybeans with a modest risk premium but clear sensitivity to next week’s export confirmations and any change in Argentine rainfall.