The U.S. dollar is again a key macro headwind at the start of Tuesday’s session. Monday’s stronger dollar index added pressure across the grain complex, reducing near-term export competitiveness and encouraging fresh selling, particularly in wheat and corn. This macro backdrop is keeping early trade defensive despite otherwise constructive demand signals.
Wheat fundamentals remain mixed but closely watched. Weekly export inspections showed 326,828 MT shipped in the week ending January 29, down 13.8% from the prior week but still 29.1% above the same week last year. Mexico, Taiwan, and Malaysia were the top destinations, and cumulative marketing-year shipments of 16.69 MMT remain up 18.6% year over year, keeping underlying demand supportive.
Fund positioning continues to influence wheat sentiment. Commitment of Traders data showed managed money covering 15,957 contracts of net shorts in Chicago wheat as of January 27, while Kansas City shorts were trimmed by 2,689 contracts. However, rising open interest on Monday signaled new selling interest, suggesting that last week’s short-covering rally may be losing momentum.
Corn is drawing support from domestic usage even as export flow softened week on week. December corn used for ethanol reached a record 488.26 million bushels, 5.1% above November and up year over year, pushing marketing-year ethanol usage to 1.863 billion bushels. This strength in biofuel demand is an important offset to softer export inspections of 1.136 MMT, which were down 9.9% from the prior week but still nearly 50% above last year’s pace on a cumulative basis.
Trade policy developments are also in focus for corn. U.S.–India discussions included a reduction in tariffs and commitments for India to purchase large volumes of U.S. energy and agricultural products, a supportive signal given India’s historical role as a major ethanol buyer. Overnight, a South Korean importer purchased 134,000 MT of corn in a tender, reinforcing international demand interest.
South American production outlooks remain a two-sided influence. In Brazil, AgRural estimates soybean harvest progress at 10% and second-crop corn planting at 12% in the Center-South, both slightly ahead of last year. StoneX and Celeres raised Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop forecasts to around 181.3–181.6 MMT, while also lifting corn production estimates, capping some weather-driven upside risk.
Soybeans are being supported by steady shipment flow and strong domestic crush. Export inspections totaled 1.31 MMT last week, only slightly below the prior week and nearly 15% above last year, with China accounting for 740,004 MT. December soybean crush reached 229.84 million bushels, up 5.6% year over year, underscoring robust domestic demand even as cumulative export commitments remain well behind last season.
Weather remains a critical intraday variable. Ongoing heavy rain and flood risks in parts of southeast Brazil threaten harvest delays and logistics disruptions, while Argentina remains mostly dry with above-normal temperatures in key corn and soybean areas. Forecast confidence is high through the next week, keeping weather risk firmly embedded in near-term grain pricing.
Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat is starting Tuesday slightly higher near $5.30/bu after closing Monday at $5.27 3/4/bu, down 10 1/4 cents. Early trade reflects modest short-covering following Monday’s losses, with exporters and funds watching dollar movement and Plains crop conditions.
Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn is trading about 1–2 cents higher early Tuesday after settling Monday at $4.25 3/4/bu, down 2 1/2 cents. Support comes from record ethanol usage and ongoing export demand, while currency strength limits follow-through buying.
Soybeans: Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans are up around 7–9 cents in early trade after closing Monday at $10.60 1/4/bu, down 4 cents. Strength is tied to firm soymeal markets, solid inspection data, and weather-related uncertainty in South America.