Core Market Drivers

Wheat is attempting to stabilize Wednesday morning after Tuesday’s heavy selling. March CBOT wheat closed at $5.37 3/4, down 11 cents, but is currently up 7 3/4 cents in early trade. The bounce reflects short-term technical recovery following expanded fund selling and improved Russian crop forecasts.

Russian supply outlook remains a central pressure point. SovEcon raised its 2026/27 Russian wheat crop forecast to 85.9 MMT, citing better-than-average crop conditions and strong snow cover. Meanwhile, Russia’s Transport Ministry announced a 21 MMT expansion in seaport capacity for 2026, reinforcing longer-term export competitiveness from the Black Sea region.

Ukraine introduces fresh weather risk. A recent cold snap followed by thaw and refreeze conditions created ice crusting over winter wheat and rapeseed fields, potentially threatening yield prospects. With winter wheat accounting for roughly 95% of Ukraine’s production, markets will monitor March–May weather closely for damage confirmation.

EU soft wheat exports reached 15.11 MMT from July 1 to February 15, up 1.46 MMT from last year, highlighting steady European participation in global trade. However, India’s decision to allow 2.5 MMT of wheat exports adds additional supply competition to the global market and may limit upside in the near term.

Corn is trading fractionally to 1 1/2 cents higher after Tuesday’s 5 1/2 cent drop. Weekly USDA inspections showed 1.492 MMT of corn shipped, down week-over-week but maintaining strong year-to-date performance at 44.36% above last year. Export demand remains supportive despite softer weekly flows.

Brazilian corn progress continues to lag. First-crop harvest stands at 22% versus 29% last year, and second-crop planting is 31% complete, below the prior year’s 36%. While delays raise short-term logistics concerns, production projections remain near 138 MMT, limiting sustained bullish momentum for U.S. corn.

Soybeans are leading early gains, up 3 to 7 cents across front months. March closed Tuesday at $11.34, up 1 cent, and is currently up 6 1/2 cents. Strength is supported by a record January NOPA crush of 221.564 mbu, exceeding analyst expectations and confirming robust domestic processing demand.

Soybean oil is a key driver this morning, up another 100 points after closing higher Tuesday. The EPA is expected to submit 2026 biofuel blending quotas to the White House this week, with potential biomass-based diesel targets between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons. Any supportive quota decision would directly boost soybean oil demand expectations.

Export flows also remain strong for soybeans. Weekly inspections totaled 1.203 MMT, up 65.3% from last year, with China accounting for 684,069 MT. Despite record Brazilian harvest progress delays at 21% complete, U.S. demand momentum is helping anchor prices.

Weather remains a critical macro variable. March is expected to be cool and dry across Argentina and southern Brazil, favorable for harvest but potentially limiting moisture reserves for late crop development. In the U.S., warm and wet conditions may benefit winter wheat, though a brief regional cold spell remains possible.

Crop Futures Wrap

Wheat:
Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed Tuesday at $5.37 3/4, down 11 cents, and is currently up 7 3/4 cents. Recovery attempts follow improved Russian crop estimates and export competition pressures.

Corn:
Mar ’26 CBOT corn settled at $4.26 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents Tuesday, and is up 1 1/2 cents this morning. Strong year-to-date exports offset Brazilian supply projections and softer weekly shipments.

Soybeans:
Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans closed at $11.34, up 1 cent, and are currently up 6 1/2 cents. Record NOPA crush data and rising soybean oil demand expectations linked to biofuel quotas are driving early-session strength.