Energy markets set the tone early in the session. Crude oil traded lower by $1.76, removing part of the recent biofuel-driven support and pressuring vegetable oil-linked markets. This reduced the upside momentum for soy oil and indirectly weighed on soybean values, while also creating a more neutral-to-bearish short-term environment for corn ethanol margins.

Speculative positioning remained a dominant force across the complex. Managed money continued to hold large net long positions in corn and soybeans, while reducing net shorts in wheat. This positioning amplified downside pressure in soybeans during liquidation and limited follow-through buying in wheat, leaving markets highly sensitive to shifts in sentiment.

Export demand continued to provide a steady underpinning, particularly for wheat and corn. Wheat export commitments reached 23.663 MMT, up 11% year-over-year, while corn commitments climbed to 66.513 MMT, 32% above last year. Strong shipment pacing for both crops reinforced demand stability and helped prevent deeper losses in corn and wheat.

Soybean exports remained the weak spot in the demand picture. Commitments stood at 36.49 MMT, down 19% from last year and trailing the typical pace, while shipments also lagged. This softer export performance contributed to the bearish tone in soybeans, especially as South American supplies remain abundant.

South American supply dynamics remained mixed. Brazil’s soybean harvest continued to progress but lagged last year’s pace, while still pointing toward a record crop despite minor forecast reductions. At the same time, tighter phytosanitary controls on exports to China slowed shipment flows, creating temporary bottlenecks that added some support but not enough to offset broader supply pressure.

Domestic processing demand remained a supportive factor for soybeans. Expectations for a strong February crush near 202.7 mbu highlighted robust U.S. processing margins and continued industrial demand, particularly for soybean oil used in biofuels. However, this support was overshadowed by export weakness and broader market liquidation.

Weather developments introduced mixed risk signals. Dry and warm conditions in the Black Sea region and parts of the U.S. Plains raised concerns for wheat production, supporting prices. Meanwhile, improved moisture conditions in the U.S. Midwest aided winter wheat and reduced drought stress, limiting upside momentum. In South America, favorable rains in central Brazil supported corn development, while dryness in the south continued to stress crops.

Logistics and input pressures added another layer of support beneath the market. Rising freight costs and concerns about fertilizer availability increased production risks and tightened effective supply in some regions. These factors provided underlying support, particularly for nearby contracts, even as futures markets reacted to macro and positioning-driven flows.

Geopolitical and trade developments added uncertainty to demand expectations. Ongoing U.S.-China discussions suggested potential for increased agricultural purchases, offering a supportive backdrop for U.S. exports. However, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty over high-level meetings kept energy markets volatile and limited bullish follow-through.

Wheat — May ’26 CBOT: closed at $6.13 3/4, up 15 1/4 cents. Wheat maintained strength following prior gains, supported by solid export demand and dryness concerns in key producing regions. Fund repositioning and improved shipment pace reinforced a constructive tone, though gains were tempered by broader market caution.

Corn — May ’26 CBOT: closed at $4.67 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents. Corn held relatively steady with slight downside pressure early in the session, as strong export demand and speculative buying continued to provide support. Near-term direction remains tied to ethanol margins and South American supply developments.

Soybeans — May ’26 CBOT: closed at $12.25 1/4, down 2 cents. Soybeans led the decline as weaker exports, softer crude oil and fund-driven selling outweighed strong domestic crush demand. The market remains sensitive to South American harvest progress and trade developments with China.