Summary: Chicago grains are starting Friday on a mixed note: wheat is lower across the three exchanges, corn is slightly weaker, and soybeans are fractionally higher. Traders are balancing softer weekly export sales against weather risk in the U.S. Plains, South American crop uncertainty, and a more difficult global fertilizer and freight backdrop.
The export-sales report is the main fresh input for the morning. Wheat sales came in at 189,887 MT for old crop and 212,059 MT for new crop, a mixed result that is enough to cool some of Thursday’s enthusiasm even as new crop business beat trade ideas. Corn sales were 1.17 MMT, down from the prior week and below last year, while soybean sales were just 298,208 MT, the weakest weekly pace of the marketing year and well below the same week last year. That combination is pressuring corn and soy early, while wheat is giving back part of Thursday’s gain.
Global balance sheet data is also leaning slightly bearish for the nearby grain tone. The International Grains Council nudged 2025/26 wheat production to 845 MMT and corn stocks to 306 MMT, while total grain stockpiles were edged up to 632 MMT. The longer-dated numbers are not outright bearish, but they reinforce the idea that the world is still well supplied, especially in wheat and corn.
Weather remains a stronger support for wheat than for the row crops. The Central and Southern Plains are turning record warm after frost earlier this week, with limited precipitation in the forecast and drought still expanding in the southwest. That keeps winter wheat under pressure in key U.S. areas, even though recent rainfall has helped the Midwest and parts of the Delta reduce drought stress and improve soil moisture.
In South America, the weather picture is more mixed and keeps corn and soy traders attentive. Central Brazil still has scattered showers that favor safrinha corn, but the south remains dry enough to worry about filling corn and soybeans. Argentina just picked up much-needed rain ahead of soybean harvest, which helps stabilize crops, but the benefit is limited because much of the crop is already maturing or moving toward harvest.
The geopolitics around fertilizer are becoming just as important as the crop-weather story. China is tightening fertilizer exports to protect its domestic market, adding strain to a global market already disrupted by the Middle East conflict. Brazil is warning about higher urea prices and potential supply problems, while India is moving to secure additional fertilizer shipments before summer planting. Higher input costs do not change the crop balance overnight, but they support grain prices by raising production costs and keeping acreage decisions under pressure.
Trade uncertainty with China remains a major overhang for soybeans. U.S. soybean imports into China were sharply lower in January-February, while Brazilian shipments surged and Argentina’s volumes jumped after export taxes were briefly removed. Brazil is still negotiating soybean inspection and safety rules with China, and the White House has delayed President Trump’s China trip by about six weeks, which keeps the near-term demand picture for U.S. soybeans uncertain.
Shipping and freight developments are another watch point for the grain complex. Russia’s drone strike in Ukraine’s Odesa region hit two foreign-flagged vessels loaded with grain, reminding traders that Black Sea logistics remain vulnerable. On the U.S. side, Mississippi River grain shipments fell last week and barge rates eased, which may limit some basis support for corn and soy if interior movement stays sluggish.
The wider supply picture is still dominated by large crops, but there are some regional offsets. SovEcon raised its Russian wheat crop estimate to 87.6 MMT, and the IGC also lifted its global wheat outlook, both of which cap upside for wheat if weather holds. At the same time, the Argentine corn crop is only 13% harvested and Brazil’s corn outlook was trimmed slightly because of dry southern conditions and planting delays, which keeps a floor under the feedgrain market.
Wheat is the weakest to start the day, with May ’26 CBOT wheat down 9 cents from Thursday’s close after ending yesterday at $6.08, up 3 3/4 cents. The market is giving back some of Thursday’s strength as export sales were softer overall and global supply headlines remain heavy, though dry Plains weather still limits downside.
Corn is also under a little pressure, with May ’26 CBOT corn down 3 to 4 cents after closing Thursday at $4.69 3/4, up 6 1/2 cents. The export-sales number was smaller than last week and the IGC’s higher corn stock estimate adds a heavier tone, but dry pockets in southern Brazil and the delay in Argentina’s crop progress still offer support underneath.
Soybeans are the firm spot this morning, with front-month contracts 1 to 2 cents higher and May ’26 CBOT soybeans last at $11.68 1/2, up 6 3/4 cents on Thursday. The market is drawing support from meal demand and some short covering, even though old crop export sales were soft; China demand, Brazilian inspection issues and the large South American crop remain the key variables to watch.