Soybeans remain under pressure despite firm meal, while corn holds near recent lows and Black Sea supply concerns support wheat close to technical resistance.
US grain markets open Thursday, October 15, with mixed and relatively quiet trade as the market waits for soybean crush data, US ethanol production and updated Brazilian corn and soybean forecasts. Soybeans are weaker, corn is nearly unchanged and wheat is slightly firmer, while a sharply lower US dollar offers some broader support to agricultural markets.
Soybeans Slip to a Seven-Week Low Ahead of Crush Data
Nov ’26 soybeans are trading $0.03 1/4 lower at $12.74/bu, reaching a seven-week overnight low. The weakness contrasts with soybean meal, where Dec ’26 is $3.00 higher at $367.50, just below this week’s high of $369.10. Dec ’26 soybean oil is down 46 points at 66.60 and is also trading at a seven-week low.
Crush margins have improved by $0.05 to $2.67 1/2/bu, while meal product value reached a nine-month high of 52.5%. NOPA members are expected to have processed 203.7 million bushels of soybeans in September, down from 205.5 million in August but above 197.9 million in September 2025. If realised, the figure would still represent the lowest monthly crush in 12 months.
Brazil Crop Estimates Become a Key Oilseed and Corn Driver
Brazilian production forecasts are another major focus. The average estimate for CONAB’s 2026/27 soybean crop is 181.6 MMT, up from 181 MMT previously but still below USDA’s 186 MMT forecast.
For corn, CONAB is expected to trim its 2026/27 production forecast by almost 1 MMT to 147.2 MMT because of slightly lower acreage. That remains well above USDA’s 139 MMT forecast, leaving the Brazilian supply outlook potentially important for corn price direction.
Corn Holds Near Recent Lows as Ethanol Data Comes Into Focus
Dec ’26 corn is $0.00 1/2 higher at $4.81 1/4/bu in two-sided overnight trade. The overnight low of $4.78 matched the low from the previous two sessions, showing that the market remains close to recent support after last week’s sharp decline.
Ethanol production is expected to rebound to 317 million gallons for the latest week from 310 million gallons previously. The data will be an important near-term demand signal for corn, while export sales have been delayed until Friday.
Rain Continues to Slow Harvest Activity
Rain continues to move from the Plains and western Corn Belt across the Midwest. The heaviest amounts over the previous 24 hours were reported in central Oklahoma and southern parts of the eastern Corn Belt, with further rainfall expected across the southern Plains and Great Lakes region over the next five to seven days.
The wetter pattern can continue to slow corn and soybean harvest activity in affected areas, limiting near-term crop movement. Northern Plains and southeastern areas are expected to remain drier, while the second-week outlook points to above-normal precipitation in the western Corn Belt and Plains states.
Wheat Tests Resistance as Black Sea Supply Tightens
Wheat is slightly firmer across all three classes in early trade. Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is approaching its 100-day moving average resistance at $6.75 3/4/bu, making that level an important technical barrier for the session.
At the same time, drought conditions across US winter wheat areas are expected to continue easing, which reduces some domestic weather support. Internationally, however, limited Black Sea supplies are being redirected toward other exporters. Wheat offers from Romanian and Bulgarian ports have risen to three-year highs as Russian drone attacks have damaged or sunk vessels in their coastal waters.
Export Demand Remains a Friday Catalyst
US wheat export sales will be released Friday morning because of the Monday holiday. The report will be closely watched for signs that the recent decline in US wheat prices has attracted additional demand.
The EU wheat crop is estimated at 126.1 MMT, unchanged from the previous estimate, while 2027 acreage is expected to decline by nearly 2% from the 52.9 million acres planted in 2026.
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is up $0.00 3/4 at $6.74/bu. Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat is up $0.00 1/2 at $7.15 1/2/bu, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat is up $0.01 1/2 at $6.91 1/2/bu. Chicago is testing resistance at its 100-day moving average of $6.75 3/4, while firmer Black Sea offers provide support against improving US winter wheat moisture.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn is up $0.00 1/2 at $4.81 1/4/bu. The overnight low of $4.78 matched the lows of the previous two sessions. Ethanol production and CONAB’s Brazilian crop estimate are the main immediate catalysts, while US export sales are delayed until Friday.
Soybean Futures
Nov ’26 soybeans are down $0.03 1/4 at $12.74/bu. Dec ’26 soybean meal is up $3.00 at $367.50, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is down 46 points at 66.60. Soybeans and oil are testing seven-week lows, while stronger meal and improved crush margins provide some support ahead of the NOPA crush figures.