Wheat is the relative outperformer Wednesday morning, while higher US and Brazilian production estimates, continued fund liquidation and a risk-off reaction to the US election results keep corn and soybeans under pressure.
US agricultural markets open Wednesday, November 4, with a broadly defensive tone. Corn has recovered from another fresh four-month low but remains near unchanged, Jan ’27 soybeans have dropped to a new 2 1/2-month low, while wheat is modestly firmer across all three classes. The market is digesting the US midterm election result alongside higher StoneX production estimates, continued speculative selling and generally non-threatening South American weather.
Election Result Adds to Risk-Off Sentiment
The US midterm elections saw Democrats take control of both the House and Senate, and the initial agricultural-market reaction has been bearish. The concern in the Morning Ag Outlook is that the changed political environment could weaken expectations around previous trade commitments for US agricultural purchases, providing speculative traders with another reason to reduce exposure, particularly in the soybean complex.
The US dollar is sharply lower and trading at a five-week low, which normally offers some support to export competitiveness, while US equity markets recovered after an initial overnight decline. Energy prices are lower, with spot WTI crude down $1.95/barrel at $94.15, and both RBOB gasoline and heating oil down $0.06/gallon.
Corn Tests Another Four-Month Low
Dec ’26 corn has rebounded to unchanged at $4.42 1/2/bu after touching a fresh four-month low.
The weakness is notable because physical demand remains active. USDA reported private sales of 315,000 MT to Mexico and 136,000 MT to South Korea on Tuesday. Yet the market again failed to build a sustained rally around improved export business.
Speculative traders sold another 12,000 contracts, reducing their net long position to approximately 51,000 contracts, while total open interest increased by just over 8,000 contracts. That combination points to continued pressure from fund positioning even as commercial demand improves.
Higher US and Brazilian Corn Estimates Add Supply Pressure
StoneX raised its 2026 US corn production estimate by another 88 million bushels to 16.203 billion bushels, with average yield increased to 183.1 bpa. USDA’s referenced estimates are 16.034 billion bushels and 181.2 bpa.
StoneX also increased its estimate for Brazil’s first corn crop to 30.68 MMT, up 1.4 MMT from its previous figure, while the second crop is projected at 113.53 MMT.
The combination of larger US and Brazilian supply expectations keeps the broader corn balance bearish despite stronger export demand.
Ethanol Data Becomes Today’s Corn Catalyst
The EIA is due to publish its weekly ethanol update Wednesday. Expectations center on production close to the prior week’s 1.118 million barrels per day, equivalent in the Morning Outlook to around 329 million gallons.
That pace is described as just above the level needed to reach USDA’s usage forecast. A stronger reading would therefore provide support to domestic corn demand, but the broader price trend remains weak while supply estimates continue to rise.
Soybeans Fall to a Fresh 2 1/2-Month Low
Jan ’27 soybeans are down 6 cents at $12.08/bu, establishing a fresh 2 1/2-month low. The next stated support is the August 2026 low at $11.80 3/4.
Dec ’26 soybean meal is down $1.00 at $317, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is down 78 points at 64.50 after reaching a seven-month low.
The soybean complex remains particularly vulnerable to speculative liquidation. Combined managed-money length has fallen to 367,000 contracts, still historically large but well below the recent record of 558,000 contracts.
Larger Production Estimates Offset Chinese Demand
StoneX raised its 2026 US soybean production forecast by 77 million bushels to 4.725 billion bushels, with yield increased to 55 bpa. The referenced USDA estimates are 4.562 billion bushels and 53.1 bpa.
Brazil’s soybean production estimate was also raised to 184.95 MMT, up 1.59 MMT from the previous StoneX number.
Demand remains present: USDA reported another private sale of 134,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations, while estimated Chinese purchases remain near 19 MMT. Still, larger production expectations and continued fund selling are currently outweighing those supportive signals.
South American Weather Remains Non-Threatening
Widespread precipitation was recorded across southern Brazil and Argentina, while the coming week is expected to favor Brazil’s interior south, with scattered rainfall across southern Argentina and west-central Brazil.
The source characterizes the South American forecast as non-threatening. That is important for soybeans because favorable planting conditions remove one potential source of weather premium precisely as speculative traders continue to reduce long exposure.
US Harvest Should Resume Quickly After Rain
Rain across the central Midwest has temporarily slowed fieldwork, but the current system is expected to move east and exit the eastern Corn Belt within 24–48 hours.
A warmer and drier pattern is then expected across the US midsection into mid-November, allowing the remaining harvest to progress. US corn harvest stood at 74% complete, while soybean harvest reached 88%, four points ahead of average.
The weather therefore offers only temporary support to nearby prices rather than a major supply threat.
Wheat Emerges as the Relative Outperformer
Wheat is the strongest part of the agricultural complex Wednesday morning. Dec ’26 CGO is up 1 cent at $6.00 3/4, Dec ’26 KC is up 2 1/2 cents at $6.39, and Dec ’26 MIAX is up 1 1/2 cents at $6.21.
Spot CGO and KC have held support above their summer lows, while spot MIAX recovered after making a new contract low. Wheat therefore has a firmer technical footing than corn or soybeans at the start of Wednesday.
Black Sea Diplomacy and Chinese Demand Remain Key Wheat Risks
The US, Russia and Ukraine have agreed to hold trilateral peace talks in the UAE on November 10–11. Ukraine has called for discussion of a ceasefire covering energy infrastructure and the Black Sea region.
For wheat, this is potentially bearish if it improves expectations for Black Sea trade flows. At the same time, prices remain sensitive to Chinese demand interest, or the lack of it.
Russia’s IKAR cut its 2026/27 wheat export estimate to 39.5 MMT, down 2.5 MMT from its previous forecast, providing some counterweight to the bearish peace narrative.
Plains Rain Improves Winter Wheat Prospects
US winter wheat planting is 83% complete, one percentage point behind the five-year average, while emergence at 65% matches normal. Crop conditions are rated 44% good/excellent.
Recent rainfall should further ease drought conditions across the US Plains, improving establishment before winter dormancy.
Ukraine has planted 3.95 million hectares of winter wheat, equivalent to 87% of intended area.
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 CGO wheat is up 1 cent at $6.00 3/4/bu. Dec ’26 KC is up 2 1/2 cents at $6.39, while Dec ’26 MIAX is up 1 1/2 cents at $6.21. Wheat is the relative outperformer, supported by technical resilience and a lower Russian export estimate, but upcoming Black Sea peace talks and improving US Plains moisture limit the bullish case.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn is unchanged at $4.42 1/2/bu after reaching a fresh four-month low. Stronger demand from Mexico and South Korea has not been enough to reverse the trend, while higher StoneX production estimates for both the US and Brazil and continued speculative selling keep pressure on prices.
Soybean Futures
Jan ’27 soybeans are down 6 cents at $12.08/bu, at a fresh 2 1/2-month low. Dec ’26 meal is down $1.00 at $317, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is down 78 points at 64.50 after reaching a seven-month low. The next stated support for Jan beans is $11.80 3/4. Higher US and Brazilian production estimates and continued fund liquidation outweigh supportive Chinese demand for now.