Markets in the USA had a day-off on Monday. Rapeseed and wheat prices in Paris went down while corn remained unchanged.

The EUR/USD currency pair went down to 1.0613. Light oil went up to 53.99 USD/barrel.

Last year, Saudi Arabia increased oil production and export to the highest average levels in history while there is oversupply at the global crude oil market. Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) information, summarized by Bloomberg, state that, on average, export increased from 7.39 mln barrels per day in 2015 to 7.65 mln barrels per day this year.

Wheat price in Paris went up yesterday while markets in the USA remained closed due a national holiday. Market is awaiting huge yield forecast revision to be made by the American government. This will throw some light on the crops numbers in 2017 – 2018. Wheat area increase in the USA is expected, but still high stocks will burden the market.

The EU expects no winter crop damage following the latest cold wave. No further crop deterioration is expected either, which will be good news in spring. FranceAgriMer reported on Friday that 92% of soft wheat crops in France are in a good or excellent condition. The result is lower than last year, but still very high.

Russian wheat prices went up again last week due to the strong ruble and high demand on behalf of African countries. On Friday, Egypt purchased 360,000 tons of wheat from the Black Sea region. Ethiopia followed suit yesterday with 400 000 tons. The FOB price of Russian wheat reached 191 USD/ton at the end of the week, IKAR reported, which was +3 USD/ton for the week. SovEkon information read 190.5 USD/ton (+1).

Rapeseed went down by 2.5 EUR/ton in Paris yesterday with favourable wether conditions in South America and unfavourable palm oil price reduction. Palm oil futures were at their lowest level for the past three months with improved production perspective and lower demand.

Thursday and Friday are expected to bring some important news this week when farmers in the USA will announce their plans for the spring sowing. The soybean/corn price ratio is currently standing at 2.58, which is considered a good sign so that soybean areas are increased. If the ratio drops to 2.0 corn will be in favour.

Chinese corporation Cofco estimates soybean import in China at 89 mln tons in 2016 – 2017 versus 83.2 mln tons in 2015 – 2016. Soybean meal consumption will rise by 7 – 8% considering the limited DDGS export.

Rainfall in Argentina is relatively good, but there are some local floods in Entre Ríos Province. New crop damage is not expected. Rain in the next few days will not lead to new flooding. There is excellent perspective for strong corn and soybean production keeping in mind that March will be dry.

There some news that the Chinese Cofco is negotiating the delivery of 15,000 tons of corn to Japan. No deal has been struck so far, but Japan is looking for delivery from China at a time when the USA find it hard to export corn.

317,900 tons of grain were exported from Russian sea ports between February 10 and February 16 versus 417,200 tons a week earlier. The export consisted of 253,200 tons of wheat, 29,200 tons of corn and 35,500 tons of barley. Egypt with 72,000 tons, Tanzania with 44,000 tons and Algeria with 30,000 tons were the biggest buyers.

731,900 tons of grain were exported from Ukrainian sea ports between February 11 and February 17 versus 725,200 tons a week earlier. The export consisted of 196,600 tons of wheat, 484,500 tons of corn and 50,800 tons of barley. Belgium with 92,800 tons, Tunisia with 60,500 tons and Spain with 53,000 tons were the biggest buyers.

Weekly export for the two countries together constitutes 1,049,800 tons of grain versus 1,142,400 tons a week earlier with a 49% corn share.

Rusagrotrans estimates that 1.8 – 2.0 mln tons of grain will be exported from Russia in February versus the previous estimate of 2.3 – 2.4 mln tons. Wheat export may be 1.4 – 1.5 mln tons during the month with barley export of 80 – 100,000 tons and corn export of 350 – 400,000 tons. Grain export is projected at 2.5 – 2.6 mln tons in March versus the previous estimate of 2.9 – 3.0 mln tons.

Russian wheat export prices are on the rise, but export is far from what is expected considering the huge stocks. February and March forecast is not excellent. Then only April will be available before the new wheat yield in May decreases demand.

22.9 mln tons of grain were exported from Canada during the first 28 weeks of the season which started on August 1, 2017. This is 2% less than the corresponding period of the previous year, CGC reported. Compared with last year, soft wheat export has dropped to 7.2 mln tons (-19%) while hard wheat export has gone down to 2.3 mln tons (-13%). Rapeseed export has increased to 5.8 mln tons (+9%), soybean export has jumped to 3.3 mln tons (+21%) while peas export has moved up to 2.1 mln tons (+20%).