Wheat

Chicago wheat futures for the September 2025 contract opened Thursday’s session at $4.97 per bushel, stabilizing after a week of pressure. U.S. harvest progress continues to weigh on prices, with winter wheat nearly finished and spring wheat advancing, but concerns about quality in Europe and ongoing drought in parts of southwestern Russia limited further downside. Traders remain cautious as they weigh Russia’s large harvest outlook against weather risks that could still shift supply prospects.

Corn

Corn opened at $3.80 per bushel for the September 2025 contract, reflecting mixed signals from the U.S. and South America. The ProFarmer Crop Tour reported above-expectation yields in key states like Ohio and South Dakota, reinforcing optimism about U.S. supply. However, Brazilian export dominance and muted U.S. export inspections kept sentiment under pressure. Market participants are closely watching competitiveness in export markets as well as upcoming weather updates across the Corn Belt, Brazil, and the Black Sea region.

Soybeans

Soybean futures started Thursday at $10.13 per bushel for the September 2025 contract, consolidating after recent volatility. USDA-confirmed export sales to Mexico and strong pod counts in the Crop Tour bolstered optimism for U.S. production. Still, Brazil’s record-breaking pace of soybean exports continues to overshadow U.S. competitiveness. Tight domestic stock-to-use ratios remain supportive, but longer-term uncertainties about next season’s production and U.S.–China trade tensions are leaving the market finely balanced.

Global Market Drivers

Russia’s IKAR consultancy raised its wheat production forecast to 85.5 million tons, with exports projected at 42.5 million tons, supported by strong yields in the Volga, Urals, and Siberia. The Ministry of Agriculture reported 75 million tons already harvested, further cementing Russia’s dominant role in global wheat trade. Yet, drought in the southwest continues to threaten spring wheat quality, keeping global buyers alert.

Egypt confirmed purchases of at least 200,000 tons of French wheat, with trade sources estimating volumes may surpass 400,000 tons. The move underscores Cairo’s urgency after falling short on domestic procurement and facing tighter Russian supplies. Prices were reported at $265–275 per ton c&f, with deferred deliveries reflecting ongoing logistical challenges.

China made headlines by re-entering the Australian canola market for the first time since 2020, booking a 50,000-ton cargo via COFCO for later this year. This follows tariffs on Canadian canola and marks a clear shift toward diversifying supply. Analysts expect more Australian shipments soon, reshaping oilseed trade flows and intensifying competition for Canadian and European suppliers.

Vegetable oil markets held firm, with Malaysian palm oil futures trading above 4,300 ringgit per ton. Indonesia’s aggressive biodiesel mandates and strong U.S. biofuel demand are reducing soyoil export availability, keeping edible oil supplies tight. Analysts suggest these constraints will persist well into 2026.

Adverse weather remains a key driver of sentiment. Argentina’s Pampas is facing excessive rainfall that risks waterlogging early wheat crops. Heavy rains in Brazil remain largely neutral, while Canada continues to struggle with frost and delayed harvests. In Europe, persistent rains in Germany have raised concerns about wheat protein levels, even as DBV lifted its national crop forecast to 43.5 million tons.

In the U.S., soybean stocks remain under close scrutiny. USDA projects 2024/25 ending stocks at just 8.98 million tons, one of the tightest ratios in years. Although strong domestic demand is supportive in the short run, concerns over reduced 2025/26 output and prolonged trade tensions with China weigh heavily on market sentiment.

Policy shifts in South America are also shaping markets. Brazil’s antitrust regulator Cade opened a probe into the soybean moratorium, alleging cartel-like practices among exporters. If disruptions occur, supply chains across Europe and Asia could face significant consequences, given Brazil’s dominant role in global soybean exports.

Peru announced sweeping tax reforms to encourage agribusiness, cutting corporate tax rates for large agro-exporters to 15%, exempting smaller firms, and aiming to attract $24 billion in irrigation investments by 2050. Growing exports of blueberries, grapes, and avocados already highlight Peru’s rising role in the global fresh produce market, with India identified as a priority buyer.

Finally, Brazil’s AgRural reported that 1.6% of the 2025/26 summer corn crop has already been planted in the Center-South region, while the second harvest is 94% complete. The rapid pace of planting compared to last year reinforces expectations of abundant supplies entering the market, keeping international corn prices capped.