All grain prices went down on Monday with wheat being the top mover.

The EUR/USD currency pair went down to 1.0733. Light oil decreased to 48.23 USD/barrel.

On Friday, Baker Hughes Oil Company reported that the number of oil rigs in the USA rose by 14 in the past week and this is the reason for the bear position. Thus, the total number of rigs is 631, which is the highest level since September 2015. This recovery will most probably boost schist gas production in April which will be very fast.

Drought remains in the wheat belt of the USA. Crops have a little time to get moisture so that they keep their fast growth without any damage after the temperatures rise. Rainfall is expected in the middle of the week and will continue for the next 10 days, but only in certain areas.

There are some moisture problems in Australia, too, at the start of wheat sowing campaign. It is currently believed that the newly-appearing El Niño will not cause damage to the crops in Asia in 2017 because it will not have the time to fully develop while vegetation is in progress.

The weather in South America remains excellent for crop growth and there is no news of problems. Rain in Brazil slows down yield harvesting but there is nothing to worry about.

Weekly export checks on American wheat in the past week were 624,000 tons versus the expected 350,000 – 550,000 tons. Checks on American corn export were at 1.33 mln tons – nothing unexpected. Checks on soybean export were at 737,000 tons – a little over the analysts’ expectations.

695,300 tons of grain were exported from Russian sea ports between March 10 and March 16 versus 507,400 tons a week earlier. Export consisted of 501,600 tons of wheat, 155,700 tons of corn and 38,000 tons of barley. Egypt with 152,800 tons of grain, Turkey with 88,500 tons and Nigeria with 75,500 tons were the biggest buyers.

1.16 mln tons of grain were exported from Ukrainian sea ports between March 11 and March 17 versus 0.52 mln tons a week earlier. Export consisted of 349,000 tons of wheat, 780,200 tons of corn and 26,700 tons of barley. Egypt with 157,600 tons, Italy with 123,000 tons and the Netherlands with 69,100 tons were the biggest buyers.

1,855,300 tons of grain were exported from Russia and Ukraine altogether versus 1,027,400 tons a week earlier. The corn share reached 50%. Export from Ukraine has grown considerably. Wheat, which was quite weak in the previous few weeks, restored its export volumes. It is expected that this will be an exception.

26.197 mln tons of grain were exported from Russia between July 1, 2016 and March 15, 2017, which was 1.8 mln tons less than the previous year – 26.679 mln tons according to the country’s Ministry of Agriculture. Wheat export grew by 2.9% to 20.209 mln tons while corn export grew by 16.5% to 3.6 mln tons. Barley export dropped by 40.9% to 2.2 mln tons. Grain export will reach 37 mln tons (33.9) at the end of the season.

416,600 tons of wheat were exported from Canada between March 6 and March 12, which is lower than the average level for the past few weeks, Canadian Grain Commission announced. 10.7 mln tons of wheat have been exported from Canada since the start of the current season, which is 18% less than the previous year. Soft wheat export has dropped by 19% to 8.2 mln tons while 14% less hard wheat were exported or 2.6 mln tons. Canada fails to be an active wheat exporter this season. There are problems with the export to the USA, which is the biggest Canadian wheat customer. The worse quality of Canadian wheat as well as the sufficient amount of good quality wheat in the USA makes deliveries harder.

Brazil will set a new record in corn and soybean production and export in 2017, USDA reported. The current infrastructure will be insufficient to match this workload. USDA projected the export of 61 mln tons of soybean and 31 mln tons of corn from Brazil in the current year.

On March 17, 2017 Saudi Arabia purchased 1.51 mln tons of barley at 179.88 – 193.18 USD/ton C&F. This is a huge amount to be sold on the market. The country also bought over 700,000 tons of hard wheat in the past week.

Turkey has excluded Russia from the list of countries which can import wheat tax-free in the country. The Russo-Turkish relations are quite complicated right now. A small portion of wheat demand in Turkey is likely to be met by Bulgaria.

Corn price – Corn futures in Chicago went down by 3.5 – 4 cents/bushel yesterday. USDA reported an export sale of 132,000 tons of current harvest corn to South Korea. Weekly export checks on American corn were at 1,333,064 tons, which was 14.9% less than last week, but 31.5% more than last year. AgResource estimated USA’s corn stocks at 218.82 mln tons on March 1, 2017. Brugler estimated 216.66 mln tons. 31% of the planned corn sowing in the USA was completed versus 25% in the previous week and 28% last year.

Soybean price – Soybean futures in Chicago remained steady yesterday. Export checks on American soybean were at 737,255 tons (+8.97% and 27.76%). AgResource estimated USA’s soybean stocks at 44.74 mln tons on March 1, 2017. AgRural estimated that 63% of soybean areas in Brazil have been harvested. Agroconsult projected soybean yield in Brazil of 111 mln tons with Abiove projecting 107.3 mln tons while soybean export will be 59.8 mln tons (58.7 mln tons in February). Some export estimates reached 61 mln tons.

Wheat price – Wheat futures in Chicago went down by 6 cents/bushel yesterday. Weekly export checks on American wheat were 624, 334 tons (+14% and +32.78%). Wheat condition in the USA is getting worse than last year.