Wheat and corn prices in Chicago went down on Monday while soybeans prices dropped. In Paris, rapeseed price went up as wheat and corn prices remained steady.

The EUR/USD currency pair went up to 1.0669. Light oil went up to 50.33 USD/barrel.

Crude oil futures started steadily on Monday, following last week’s yearly peak, boosted by the growing optimism that the main oil producers will keep on producing in the second half of the year despite the production reduction.

Yesterday, the trade in Chicago was totally influenced by USDA’s Friday report on 2017 grain areas in the USA. According to the forecast, soybean areas will grow significantly, which immediately decreased soybean price. Corn had the opposite change – an increase. Soybeans received on Friday three bad news about its price – USA areas will be larger than expected; March 1^st stocks were bigger than expected and increasing forecasts on soybean yield in South America. Corn areas appeared smaller than market expectations.

At the beginning of the previous week, the soybeans/corn price ratio was about 2.57-2.60. Now it is down to 2.42, which suggests more corn should be sowed than soybeans. Generally speaking, the report will tell farmers what they should not do.

Over the past week, American corn export sales were 1.48 mln tons with analysts’ expectations for 1.2 – 1.4 mln tons. Soybean export data was quite strong, but it did not affect the prices.

The situation with wheat in the USA is looking further up. Last week’s rainfall boosted crops to a great extent. New rainfall is expected in the beginning of this week too.

There is some rainfall in Ukraine too, which greatly improves the dry crops. There are areas in Ukraine which have already been hit by drought although it is still the beginning of spring.

Between March 25 and March 31, 739,700 tons of grains were exported from Ukrainian sea ports versus 428,300 tons a week earlier. The export consisted of 190,800 tons of wheat, 495,300 tons of corn and 53,600 tons of barley. Egypt with 188,600 tons, the Netherlands with 85,000 tons and Spain with 78,700 tons were the biggest buyers.

Between March 24 and March 30, 756,000 tons of grain were exported from Russian sea ports versus 561,600 tons a week earlier. The export consisted of 663,000 tons of wheat, 28,800 tons of corn and 64,200 tons of barley. Turkey with 90,700 tons of grain, Egypt with 88,000 tons and Yemen with 60,000 tons were the biggest buyers.

A total of 1,495,700 tons of grain were exported from Russia and Ukraine in the past seven days versus 989,900 tons a week earlier. The result is excellent and it is one of the highest points of the season. Wheat export from Ukraine has remained relatively weak, but Russia has been exporting a lot of wheat despite the issues with Turkey. 

Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture decreased its forecast on grain export from the country in the current Marketing Year. It is now expected that export will reach last year’s level of 33.9 mln tons. The previous forecast stated 37 mln tons.

28.016 mln tons of grain were exported from Russia between the start of the season and March 29, 2017 according to information from the Ministry of Agriculture of the country. The export consisted of 21.687 mln tons of wheat, 3.893 mln tons of corn, 2.238 mln tons of barley and 198,000 tons of other grains. Export was 0.2% weaker than the previous year. Last year’s export consisted of 28.083 mln tons of grain including +5.4% more wheat, +15.2% more corn, -42.3% less barley and other grains -18.6%. Traditionally, the governmental forecasts in Russia are the most optimistic, but it is a different story now. Grain export from Russia will remain at its 2015 – 2016 level. The decline is mainly due to barley. Quite the contrary: corn and wheat export will be much better. Grain ending stocks in Russia will definitely be high at the end of the current season. Russian old yield grain may decrease the possible export prices at the beginning of the new season, or perhaps not just at the beginning. The outcome will certainly depend on the size of the new wheat yield in the Black Sea region and France.

Turkey is currently looking for alternative (non-Russian) wheat suppliers and has purchased 500,000 tons of wheat from Ukraine, Hungary, Lithuania and Latvia.

Wheat export from Canada has remained weak so far. This will definitely be a problem for price growth at the end of the current season and the beginning of the next, when the country will have good export potential. Soft wheat export has reached 8.7 mln tons (-18%), Durham 2.7 mln tons (-13%), barley 0.7 mln tons (+3%), rapeseed 7.0 mln tons (+9%), soybeans 3.5 mln tons (+6%), peas 2.5 mln tons (+30%), etc.

тона (+30%) и други.

Corn price – Corn futures in Chicago went up by 3 cents/bushel yesterday. Weekly export data on American corn was at 1,475,257 tons, which was 6.03% less than the previous week, but still 35.11% more than last year. Since the start of the season, corn export from the USA has been +69.64% higher than last year. 10.757 mln tons of corn were used for ethanol production in March, which was 0.6% more than February. 63% of corn areas in the South of Brazil have been harvested.

Soybean price – Soybean futures in Chicago went down by 2 – 7 cents/bushel yesterday. Weekly export data on American soybeans was at 620,725 tons (+11.76% and 173.65%). Since the start of the season, soybeans export from the USA has been 5.14 mln tons higher than last year. 76% of soybean areas in Brazil have been harvested.