Wheat and corn prices in Chicago went up on Monday while soybeans remained steady. Rapeseed took a big drop in Paris, wheat slightly decreased and corn went up a bit.

The EUR/USD index went down to 1.0604. Light oil went up to 52.99 USD/barrel.

Baker Hughes Oil Company announced on Monday that the number of oil rigs in the USA has increased by 10, which has been a 12^th increase in a row. Thus, the total rig number has become 672 – the highest since September 2015.

The prices of corn futures in Chicago went up yesterday based on fears of delayed sowing. USDA’s April report will be issued later today. It is expected that it will be as detailed as the March one, but it is likely that it will create opportunities for short positions and price growth.

Abundant rainfall is expected in the whole of the Midwest of the USA. They will affect positively winter wheat crops, but will delay corn sowing. Corn sowing is currently running at full blast, so a delay of a few days will not matter at all. Anyway, the markets are looking for news to bring on change.

Weekly export report on American corn show a good level – 1.17 mln tons. Moreover, USDA announced an export sale of 101,000 tons of current harvest corn to an unspecified buyer.

Soybeans were slightly boosted by extra rainfall in Argentina yesterday. The fact is, rainfall has largely exceeded the forecasts and will affect vast areas of the country, soybean areas included. Soybean and corn harvesting has almost stopped for now. The announced large palm oil stocks in Malaysia are putting soybeans under extra pressure.

Palm oil prices in Malaysia plummeted to a 6-month lowest point following the fast stock growth. This has happened despite the strong export. Palm oil stocks in Malaysia grew by 4% in March to 1.27 mln tons. This is much higher than the 1.18 mln tons expected. 312,489 tons of palm oil were exported from the country between April 1 and April 10, which makes a 25% increase versus April 2016. Export growth has been entirely covered by the production boom. The regular and abundant rainfall in the country in the past 6 months has had its effect, which is more and more obvious. March palm oil production in Malaysia was 1.46 mln tons, which is the highest level since 2008. There has been 20% production growth versus March 2016 and 16.3% versus February. The lack of labourers for harvesting the yield has appeared a surprise factor on the market.

Between 31.03 and 06.04.2017, 568,700 tons of grains were exported from Russian sea ports versus 756,000 tons a week earlier. Export included 430,300 tons of wheat, 120,300 tons of corn and 18,100 tons of barley. Vietnam with 102,200 tons of grains, Turkey with 54,000 tons and Yemen with 50,900 tons were the biggest buyers.

Between April 1 and April 7, 860,100 tons of grains were exported from Ukrainian sea ports versus 739,700 tons a week earlier. Export included 258,800 tons of wheat, 493,100 tons of corn and 108,200 tons of barley. Egypt with 299,000 tons, Spain with 106,000 tons and Italy with 57,000 tons were the biggest buyers.

Over the reporting period, a total of 1,428,800 tons of grains were exported from Russia and Ukraine versus 1,495,700 tons a week earlier. Levels have remained extremely high for the second week running. Wheat and corn export has also remained strong.

Between the start of the season and 5.04.2017, 28.703 mln tons of grain were exported from Russia including. 22.186 mln tons of wheat, 2.322 mln tons of barley and 3.992 mln tons of corn. Export has been 0.1% lower than last year – 28.745 mln tons.

Dry conditions in Northern Africa create opportunities for a serious reduction of the potential for high wheat production. Thus, we can expect even bigger grain import to those countries in 2017 – 2018.

The second strongest corn producer in the EU – Romania – is to increase its 2017 corn areas to 2.62 mln hectares versus 2.5 mln hectares in 2016. In 2016, 10 mln tons of corn were harvested in Romania, which was 12% more than the previous year. Corn areas in Bulgaria will remain unchanged – 0.46 – 0.5 mln hectares. Sowing tempo is twice as fast as 2016.

There are changes in China regarding the crop structure. After the government retracted its support of corn producers, corn areas are growing smaller while wheat areas are on the rise, reaching a record level for the past 15 years. All market players in China are stressed by the obscurity of the government’s future steps in reforming the sector. The declining margin of corn producers forces them to reduce corn areas and increase wheat and rice areas where profit appears better. In 2017, corn areas in China will reach a 5-year bottom of 36.26 mln hectares. However, production will go up and, basically, the yield will remain relatively unchanged compared with 2016 – 216 – 217 mln tons. Surprisingly, corn stocks in China will take a sharp decline to 69.758 mln tons while the stocks/consumption index will go down to 28.7%. The same index was 50% two years ago. In case corn stocks in China plummet to 70 mln tons, we can expect corn import in the country to jump in the next few years. A stock decline of more than 35 mln tons in a single year sounds improbable.

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Corn price – Corn futures in Chicago went up by 5.25 – 7.5 cents/bushel yesterday. 3% of the planned corn areas in the USA have been sowed versus 1% in 2016. Last week’s American corn reports were at 1.17 mln tons which is a 21.35% decline versus the previous week, but 4.3% more than last year.

Soybean price – Soybean futures in Chicago remained steady yesterday. Last week’s American soybean reports were at 832,957 tons (+32.74% and +115.2%). Reports were 5.6 mln tons lower last year

Wheat price – Wheat futures in Chicago went up by 4.5 – 5.5 cents/bushel yesterday. 51% of the winter wheat crops in the USA are in good or excellent condition, which marks an increase of 2% over the week. The index is still 5% lower than last year’s one. 5% of the planned spring wheat areas in the USA have been sowed versus 12% last year. Over the past week, American wheat export reports were at 641,365 tons (+11.94% and +65.7%). Referring to satellite images, Planalytics Company estimates the average production of winter wheat in the USA at 49 bushels/acre versus 48.2 bushels in the previous forecast.

USDA’s April report is expected today. It seems as if it will reassure with its expected news