On Thursday the wheat price rose and corn and soybeans declined. The variations were moderate. In Paris the rapeseed dropped, and wheat and corn remained stable.

EUR / USD index rose to 1.0868. WTI crude oil rose to 47.86 USD / barrel.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has raised its forecast for oil production outside the cartel against the backdrop of recovery of the US oil industry, threatening the group's efforts to cope with the surplus. The production outside the cartel will grow by 950,000 barrels a day this year, OPEC reported, upgrading its expectations by around 370,000 barrels. The new forecast is four times higher than in November, when the group announced a cut in production to try to rebalance oversupply on world markets.Countries outside OPEC pump about 60% of world oil, the agency notes. At the same time oil prices fell to a 5-month bottom of $ 44 a barrel on the New York stock exchange last week because of concerns that OPEC's cuts and its 11 partners, including Russia, have not resolved the issue. And while OPEC give signals for bigger cuts in the second half of the year, the raising forecast for the production raises speculation about the success of their strategy. The organization is revising its US production forecast of 285,000 barrels per day to 820,000 barrels per day.

In its latest report USDA predicts that US soybean exports in 2017-2018 will be over 58 million tonnes. At the same time Conab updated its forecast for the soybean crop in Brazil to 113 million tonnes at 11.8 million tonnes in the previous forecast. The USDA forecast seems unrealistic. The USDA forecast for an average soybean yield of 48 bushels / acre was also uder suspect. After so many years of improving genetics, such a low yield surprised analysts. The forecast refers to excessive moisture in the soil now. Imports of soybean in China are also of growing. Weekly export sales of US soybeans are at the level of 381,400 tonnes of the old crop, which is an excellent achievement on the backdrop of the weak sales a year earlier. With this sales pace the USDA forecast for exports during the current season will be realized. Since the beginning of the season exports have reached 46 million tonnes. For the soybean price in Chicago it is hard to go up, given the huge production in South America. It seems the market is skeptical about the USDA's new forecast, which looks very good for a following rise in soybean prices.

Concerns about the the big moistures in the southern and eastern parts of the Midwest have decreased. Over the next five days there will be an opportunity for work in the open and for wonders with the corn and soybean sowing campaigns. In these areas sowing conditions look good, and in the western parts of the Midwest they are very good.

Conab renewed its estimate for Brazil's corn crop with an increase of 1.3 million tonnes to 92.8 million tonnes at a USDA forecast of 96 million tonnes. These data calmed the market a little, and the price of corn did not collapse. Export sales of US corn of  old harvest are 277,000 tonnes, which is much lower than the expected. The news was also bad for sales of corn from the new crop, the quantities were negative considering the failure of old purchases - 55 100 tonnes. The export sales of wheat from the old crop were also negative - 24 200 tonnes, and from the new crop only 273 400 tonnes.

The first reactions after the publication of the USDA report were optimistic. The attention was directed to further reductions of the US corn areas, and hence the crops. It is noted that there is a decrease in crops not only in the US but also in other major corn producers. Lower production of corn and the bigger consumption decreases the days of crop rotation for the processors from 78 days in 2016 - 2017 to 67 days in the new season, which is the lowest level since 2013 -2014 until now. Days of use are a key indicator on which short-term grain prices depend.

Major changes in corn stocks in the US have no effect on the market so far because China has previously been isolated from the international market.

Largest fluctuation we have with the balance of barley. The global barley crop  will be the lowest for the last 30 years. Barley stocks in the world also dropped to 17.54 million tonnes, which is decrease of 29% compared to the current season, and this will be the lowest level since 1983-1984 until now. Barley areas in the world are decreasing by 960,000 hectares to 47.2 million hectares - the lowest since 1960. In the recent years the interest in barley has declined because of its low profitability.

Palm oil prices are recovering from weaker-than-expected  data on production in Malaysia. In April palm oil production in the country increased by 3% compared to the previous month to 1.6 million tonnes, but is about 50,000 tonnes below market expectations. Malaysia is an important indicator of global oil prices .The problems in the country immediately affect all oil crops.

Morocco continues to report the expected excellent new crop and this is a disruption for EU and Black Sea exporters. The grain crops will reach 10.071 million tonnes (3.557 million tonnes in 2016), incl. wheat 7.0 million tonnes (2.7), barley 2.8 million tonnes (0.6). In the current season the grain imports into the country will be 9.066 million tonnes, incl. 5 million tonnes of wheat. Compared to last season, import grew by 23%. In the new season, grain imports to Morocco will drop to 7.566 million tonnes.

Soybean price - yesterday soybean futures in Chicago fell by 2 - 5.75 cents / bushel. Export sales of US soybean during the week 28.04 - 04.05.2017 were 381,397 tonnes of old crop (+ 19.7% compared to last week and 79.6% more than last year) + 70,000 tonnes of new crop. The export of soybean is 346,000 tonnes. The biggest buyers were Japan, Bangladesh and the Netherlands. Sales of soybean meal were 137 100 tonnes + 24 700 tonnes. Soybean oil sales were 29,000 tonnes. According to AgRural Brazilian farmers have sold only 55% of their soybean crops at typically 71%.

Corn price - yesterday corn futures in Chicago fell by 2.75 - 4.75 cents / bushel. Export sales of US corn were 277 695 tonnes + 55 100 tonnes. The export reaches 722,900 tonnes. The biggest buyers were Mexico and Japan. In the northeastern parts of China there is drought and the sowing of corn is terminated until the rain comes. On Thursday Chinese authorities sold 2,139 million tonnes of corn from the state reserve crop  2013 at offered 2.504 million tonnes.

Wheat price - Chicago wheat futures rose by 2 to 5 cent / bushel yesterday. Export sales of US wheat old crop are negative - 24,156 tonnes, and from the new crop 273,400 tonnes. Exports reached 595,800 tonnes. The largest buyers were China, Mexico, an unknown buyer and the Philippines. Japan purchased 138 138 tonnes of wheat from the United States, Canada, and Australia.