Daily Grain Report

On Monday corn and soybean prices in Chicago also rose, and wheat dropped slightly. In Paris wheat and rapeseed rose and corn remained unchanged.
EUR / USD index rose to 1.1241. WTI crude oil rose to 50.73 USD / barrel.

Crude oil prices rose on Monday, reaching the highest levels since about four weeks before OPEC's meeting on Thursday. The majority of market participants expect the members of the cartel to extend the shrinkage agreement beyond the end of June. At the OPEC meeting, traders are expecting an agreement for reduction of production to be extended by the end of March 2018, not just by the end of this year, as previously considered. There is also speculation whether OPEC member countries will agree on larger output cuts to accelerate the rebalancing on the market. On its current scale, the agreement does not have a major impact on global oil stocks, as supply from non-contracting countries is rising. The most eloquent example is the United States.

Yesterday USDA reported on the progress of the sowing campaign in the US. Farmers have managed fine despite the wet land. In some places however, moisture and cold do not allow plants to germinate and need to be re-seeded. The corn sown in the last week of April and early May is in poor condition. Obviously the last areas of the re-planting will be ready by June 1st, which is a late date for the start of the new crop. In the next days in the corn belt will rain again.

Precipitation also hinders the winter wheat. Diseases have already advanced and new precipitation will only help them in the coming weeks.
Until 21.05.2017 in the US, 84% of the areas planned for corn are sown at 71% a week earlier and 85% a year earlier. Soybeans are planted on 53% of the planned areas (32% and 52%) and spring wheat on 90% (78% and 84%). In a good and excellent condition of the winter wheat are 52% of the crops (51% a week earlier and 62% a year earlier).

French farmers are on their way to gain less than average yields of wheat and barley for a second consecutive year. Also the average forecasts on  rapeseed yields in Germany have been reduced. The European Commission cut its forecasts for yields from different crops as a result of adverse natural conditions in the last month. A strong decline in the average barley yields for Spain - by 0.46 tonnes / ha compared to the previous forecast to 2.54 tonnes / ha, down by 30% from the previous year. Since mid-April in France there is no systematic rainfall and the wheat suffers. The reduction in yields is 0.50 tonnes / ha to 6.77 tonnes / ha, which is above last year's yield but is less than the average for the past five years.The average EU rapeseed yield is reduced by 0.12 tonnes / ha to 3.17 tonnes / ha. Expected rapeseed yields in Germany are mediocre. The decrease is by 0.35 tonnes / ha to 3.5 tonnes / ha. Despite the decline in the forecasts, it is considered that the prospects are positive and that new precipitation will maintain the yield potential at a relatively good level. Any drought will catalyze the processes so far, and hence the price increase. In case that France fails to restore its wheat production, one of the world's largest producers - the EU -  will remain with low level of production, and hence the market competition will fall.

In the first 41 weeks of the current season, grain exports from Canada reached 33.6 million tonnes, which is at the same level as the previous year, according to the Canadian Grain Commission. Exports of soft wheat are 10.8 million tonnes (-17%), 3.4 million tonnes (-11%), barley 1.0 million tonnes (+ 8%), canola 9.0 million tonnes (+ 10%). , soybeans 3.6 million tonnes (+ 20%), peas 3.1 million tonnes (+ 45%) and others.

Despite the fast soybean sales in the past week, Brazilian farmers have sold only 55% of the crop, which is the lowest level for the past 10 years. AgRural increased its estimate of the second crop of crop in Brazil by 2.2 million tones to 63.6 million tonnes. ADM announced that it has expanded the port of Santos and has now increased its capacity by 33% to 8 million tonnes of grain freight  per year.

 CBOT (Chicago)         

  USD/mt

   +/-

Wheat 07.2017

 159.54

 -0.37

Corn 07.2017

 147.63

 +0.94

Soybeans 07.2017

 351.42

 +1.25

Soybeans meal 07.2017

 339.29

 +0.88

 EURONEXT (Paris)

 EUR/mt 

  +/-

Wheat 09.2017

 167.25

 -1.50

Corn 06.2017

 166.75

  0.00

Rapeseed 08.2017

 361.25

 +0.75

Rapeseed meal 06.2017

 204.00

 -1.50

 

Wheat prices - yesterday wheat futures in Chicago fell by 1 - 2 cents / bushel. Weekly US export checks for wheat are at 674,559 tonnes, which is a small drop from the previous week, but quite above the previous year.

Soybean prices - yesterday soybean futures in Chicago rose by 3 - 4.5 cents / bushel. Weekly export checks of US soybeans are at 348,535 tonnes (+ 22.52% and almost + 400%). Soybeans continues to be actively exported from the United States despite the record high crops in South America.

Corn prices - yesterday corn futures in Chicago rose by 2.5 - 2.75 cents / bushel. Weekly export checks of US corn are at 1.144 million tonnes (-19.44% and -2.49%). On Thursday China's authorities will offer for sale 7 million tonnes of corn crop 2013 , and on Friday another 230,200 tonnes of crop 2011 and 2012.