On Monday US markets were not open because of the holidays in the country. In Paris wheat and rapeseed prices rose slightly, and corn went down.

Oil futures rose on Friday, but failed to escape the weekly downturn. At the beginning of the new week the raw material is traded in small limits, floating between green and red territory. Oil prices collapsed on Thursday although OPEC countries agreed to continue the agreement to shrink the production by the end of March 2018. Markets expected deeper cuts in production and were therefore disappointed, which led to the largest daily drop in oil prices since early March. The next OPEC meeting is in November.Up to now the cartel and other leading producers did not have much influence over the oil stocks around the world, as there was growth in supply from countries outside the deal, mostly from the US. Nigeria and Libya also increase their output.

Yesterday US markets were not open. In Paris, the exchange was working, but movements are generally limited in this situation.

In some areas of the US farmers are worried that they will not sow the corn on time. However, this does not affect the market because in many other areas the corn is already sown and is developing relatively well. First estimates of the condition of corn crops in the US are expected today. On the other hand, the sown later crops do not immediately mean total loss, and lower yields in these areas, for example, by 15-20%.Areas affected by many rainfalls now carry about 10% of the US corn crop, which is not much. Precipitation can now be considered as a factor that will reduce yields  in some areas, but in many others, where rainfall is normal, yields will be higher. Last year, corn sowing in these areas ended in early June, and on harvest the yields were good - they were everywhere such.

The soybeans in the US things are different because it is now being sown, when the weather conditions are already better - higher soil temperatures and less rainfall. So far, rainfall in the United States looks great, but usually after a long precipitation period follows a long period of drought. The probability this to happen in June - August in the United States is high. .

Another factor for soybeans and corn is the condition of the market in South America. Now the soybean crop is almost harvested and the supply is huge. The first corn crop is harvested in Brazil and harvested in Argentina. The second corn crop in Brazil is about to be harvested. So far, Brazil's plant development conditions are excellent. In places, including Matto Grosso, rainfall has fallen in recent weeks but for drought it  is too early to speak. An addition to the picture is the expected record high corn crops in South Africa. The country from a net importer last season will have over 3 million tonnes of corn for export.

In Europe the conditions are colorful. In France and Spain there has been a prolonged drought. MARS has already lowered its forecasts for the crops of all cultures. If the situation is maintained, the French wheat yield will be under 35 million tonnes, not as the expected initially over 37 million tonnes and over 40 million tonnes in 2016. The probability of falling to 32-33 million tonnes is big. It is possible on harvest the dry and hot period  now to be changed to rainfall, which additionally hits yields and quality.

There are also problems in Ukraine and Russia, though the markets are not influenced by them at the moment. In the central parts of Russia it is quite cool and humid. Plants do not develop as it should be. In the southern parts of Russia precipitation is sufficient and temperatures are good. So far we can not talk about mass losses, and we would much like it to be.

For now, markets do not accurately reflect the aggregate situation in different parts of the world. Four years of continuous increase of yields, crops and stocks seem to have blurred the sense of fear. It is normal that the supply of all crops is extremely high and there is no deficit for now. The new season will be a moment of breaking the trend. We will have a drop in stocks of all crops in the world - even wheat, we will have a stable demand, but this can happen at low prices.In fact, the forecasts do not indicate an increase in grain consumption in the new season. Will this be the peak of opportunities or some middle level of what they can show in the coming years? In case the world economy is developing along with the current line, consumers' capabilities for consumption will not be only these ...

Still the market is a market, and it solves all the problems with possible disproportion.

Today will be published  the data on the sowing campaigns, the condition of wheat and corn crops in the United States. Overall I expect good results in all directions, which will be a sto for the price increases during the week.