On Wednesday corn and soybeans in Chicago rose while wheat remained with minor price changes. In Paris wheat and corn rose and rapeseed declined significantly.
The EUR / USD index rose to 1.1236. WTI crude oil dropped to 48.30 USD / barrel.

Oil prices also declined on Thursday as rising production in Libya has raised concerns about the increasing output in the United States, which undermines OPEC efforts to cut its quotas to support market tightening. According to traders, the fall in prices is due to higher production in the thorn by conflicts Libya, which has boosted the continuous growth in the United States.

The markets did not expect a fall in US winter wheat ratings. In some places in Kansas  damages  on wheat due to freezing are notices. For now however, no worsening ratings can raise the price of wheat due to the large stocks and the favourable data on wheat yields in the southern states of the United States. The risks for the new wheat crops in the US are diminishing. It is noteworthy that the protein in the now harvested wheat is very low. Next week, the harvest will start in Kansas. Spring wheat in the United States received the lowest rating since 1988 until now. The drought is the reason for the low ratings in the northern US. Forecasts do not indicate recent rainfall in these areas.

The estimates for the condition of corn (good and excellent) were below stock expectations by 3-4 points. There are different opinions about whether we can talk about the expected decline in yields and crop. Given the rainfall in many places, the transfer of areas to soybeans and the need to re-plant some of the areas with corn  this may come to happen.

Some analysts expect the US corn areas in 2017 to fall to 87.5-88 million acres. Low ratings so far do not change the price of corn, but with a new turmoil on the market - for example drought, it will no longer be so. With a corn area of ​​87.5 million acres and an average yield of 167 bushes / acre, the crop will reach 341.5 million tonnes, which is  little - very little. Then the corn price will be at least 4.5 USD / bushel. It should be mentioned that there is no longer time to plan more areas in the United States or to redevelop others without affecting the yields. Therefore, a yield of 167 bushes / acre can be considered as realistic. Now some estimate the yield of 170 bushels / acre, which is below the USDA forecast.

Yesterday Egypt purchased 180,000 tonnes of Russian and Romanian wheat. The price was down on the previous auction by about 5.5 USD / tonne to 201.56 - 203.14 USD / tonne C & F. American wheat was not competitive to the Black Sea even at FOB prices.

The dropdown of the price of Russian wheat looks like a sign that the Russians want to start the new season with a flying start on the export. Russia has a lot of wheat since the record crop in 2016 given the not so strong exports - below the initial forecasts. In 2017 the wheat crop in Russia is also expected to be good, but not as much as in 2016. The sowing campaign is lagging behind, and the risk of developing diseases is growing.

In the new season, imports of wheat into Spain will grow by 1.3 million tonnes and barley by 1 million tonnes. The heavy drought will reduce the crops in the new season by more than 25% from the current season. Forecasts do not yet point  such a decline, but the lack of rainfall will cause these results.

With soybeans, the problems have already begun. China cancels supplies of 8 lots of soybeans from Brazil. Negative margins for processors are the reason for this. The big soybean imports from China since the beginning of the year up to now, and the strong  rapeseed oil sales from China's state reserve, have overwhelmed the domestic oil market. Prices are down and now the processors lose. They on the other hand, take measures to limit production.

It is expected that processed soybeans in the US is expected to reach 4.01 million tonnes in April.
There are problems with conola sowing in Canada - weather conditions are inappropriate. However, the forecasts show  higher crop than the previous year - 20.4 million tonnes (19.2). In the recent days the oil market has been under pressure from the drop in palm oil prices. Growing production in Indonesia and Malaysia is the reason for this. Another issue is the inability of the oil to rise to $ 60 / barrel steadily.