On Thursday wheat and corn prices in Chicago rose and soybeans remained stable. In Paris the prices of all cultures went down, only those of the near futures remained stable.

EUR/USD index declined to 1.1211. WTI crude oil rose to 48.85 USD/barrel.

On Wednesday the US Oil Institute announced that the oil stocks in the US have declined by 8.7 mln.barrels last week which was far above the expectations.Later today the official data of the Administration for energy information will be published. This weeks the reports will be published with a delay of one week as on Monday the US had official holiday.In the end of May  OPEC and other leading producers outside the cartel have agreed to extend the duration of the agreement for shrinking of the production until the end of March 2018 . They however did not change the number of shrinking  – 1.8 mln.barrels daily and this disappointed the investors to some extent.Goldman Sachs earlier this week decreased its forecasts for oil prices this year.According to the US investment bank Brent will be traded 55,29 dollars per barrel averagely in 2017 (earlier expectations were for 56.76 dollars, and WTI – 52.92 dollars per barrel, not 54.80 dollars).

The concerns about the meteorologic situation in many places of the world start to be noticed by the grain markets.In China there is no moisture in many corn production areas.Rainfall is expected next week in the nother parts of the country but let us see how much they will help the plants.In Canada it is he opposite - too much moisture up to now, which withdraws  when rainfall lacks lately. That will create better conditions for the farmers concerning open field activities.In Ukraine there is serious drought.In EU also did not rain but precipitation is expected in the next days.In Southern Brazil still it is too wet which is a problem for the sowing of wheat.West Australia however is very dry.The musons in India are already there and there is rainfall. In the next 15 days all parts of India will be with rainfall.

There are many local problems, not so big as problems but factors that do not create the best conditions for the development of the crops and achieving record-high yields.

The authorities in China put efforts to decrease the corn stocks. It seems that now the weather conditions will give them unwanted assistance.The lack of precipitation and high temperatures destroy the planted corn in the northern part of the country. This will continue at least for the next 10 days. Last week there was rainfall but too little. The moisture in the soil remains low.Oil cultures in the northern parts of the countrry now start to be cropped and the lack of moisture affects mostly corn.Further this will be a problem for the oil cultures.The conditions for El Nino to be formed are neutral.This phenomenon however brings drought exactly in the northern parts of China.This year– 2017 is not considered as El Nino year but the dalay of the rainfall in China will be a problem for the farmers.Up to now it is not crucial but soon it will occur unless it rains heavily.

For another global world exporter - Ukraine, the drought also creates problems.In the southern parts of Brazil due to the much rain there will be re-cropping of part of wheat areas.If the yield decreases Argentina will export more wheat to Brazil.The latest forecasts show that the new wheat crop in Argentina will reach 20 mln.tonnes, so there will be wheat in the region.The rainfall however will delay the sowing in Argentina too.

The weather conditions around the world now show that we will not have record-high yields.Good but not record-high. A new good crop however do not work.We need a crop below the average level in order to affect the prices in upgoing direction.

The forecasts on the grain crops in EU are constantly declined.The EU commission decreased its forecast for this crop by 7 mln.tonnes to 304.8 mln.tonnes in 2017 – 2018. The number is still 10 mln.tonnes above the last year's but far below the record of 328 mln.tonnes achieved three years ago. Coceral decreased its forecast for the grain crops in EU by 6.8 mln.tonnes to 297.6 mln.tonnes. The European commission decreased its forecast for barley crops in EU by 2.87 mln.tonnes to 59.5 mln.tonnes, which is  66 000 tonnes below the level of 2016, that of corn - by 2.334 mln.tonnes to 64.175 mln.tonnes (+3.566 mln.tonnes), of soft wheat -by  0.67 mln.tonnes to 141.282 mln.tonnes (+6.92). Coceral expects the soft wheat crop to be 142 mln.tonnes (144.8 mln.tonnes in the previous forecast and 135.5 mln.tonnes for last year). Durum wheat crops will be 8.1 mln.tonnes (8.4 и 9.7). Corn crops will be 60 mln.tonnes (61 и 60.8), and barley - 57.2 mln.tonnes (59.6 и 59.7). The data are weaker and weaker but as of now, the weather does not put grounds for further decreases.A wave of decreases we may have if there is continuous drought in EU in the next 2 months.

Corn prices – yesterday corn futures in Chicago went down by 2 cents/bushel. In April in the US for production of ethanol have been used 11 mln.tonnes of corn which is 6% less than in March and 8% higher than Aprl 2016.In the past week the ethanol production in the US reaches 1.02 mln.barrels daily, which is by 10 000 barrels per day more than the past week.Ethanol stocks in the US increase by 79 000 barrels to 22.763 mln.barrels.In March, 1.037 million barrels of ethanol per day were produced in the United States. Export sales of US corn are expected to be 450 000 to 650 000 tonnes of old crop + 0 to 200 000 tonnes of new crop. China sold 3.23 million tonnes of corn from the state stocks.

Wheat prices – wheat futures remained without significant change yesterday in Chicago. Analysts report  drought in part of the US wheat belt. Export sales of wheat will be within a net reduction of 100 000 tonnes to a growth of 100 000 tonnes of the old crop. For the  new crop the expectations are 250 000 - 450 000 tonnes. From the beginning of the season until 23.05.2017 from EU are exported 22.1 million tonnes of wheat compared to 28.6 million tonnes a year earlier.

Soybean prices – yesterday soybean futures in Chicago fell by 3.75 cents / bushel. In April 4.07 million tonnes of soybeans was processed in the United States, 6.84 percent more than in March, and 5.61 percent more than in April 2016. Export sales will be in the range of 200,000-400,000 tonnes of old crop + 0-150,000 tonnes of new crop. Sales of soybeans meal will be 50 000 - 200 000 tonnes and soybeans oil 5 000 - 35 000 tonnes. The USDA attaché in Brazil expects an increase in soybean ares in the country from 2 to 3% in 2017-2018. INTL FCStone expect the current soybean crop in Brazil to be 113.2 million tonnes (+1.4 million tonnes from the previous estimate).