Daily Grain Report 09.06.2017

On Thursday crop prices continued with the increase led by soybeans. There were also only rises in Paris and the rape was the leader.

EUR / USD index dropped to 1.1213. WTI crude oil dropped to 45.75 USD / barrel.

Futures on WTI crude oil declined to slightly yesterday. "We are nervously trying to keep a little over the low levels," said Ben le Brunn, market analyst at OptionsXpress in Sydney. "The situation is complicated by the fact that we have all these major political and economic events on the horizon," he added in connection with the forthcoming hearing of the former FBI Director James Comi before the Congress, the European Central Bank (ECB) political session and the parliamentary elections In the UK on Thursday.Many investors are cautious about the signals from Comi's hearing later today that Americans President Donald Trump may have been involved in impeding justice - a crime that could trigger an impeachment procedure. Central bankers from the ECB are about to take a softer position for the economy and even consider withdrawing from their promises to boost incentives when needed. None of these events "is directly related to oil, but they all have an impact on the dollar and risky attitudes in general," said Le Brun.In the United States, the stocks of crude oil and gasoline suddenly rose last week after the export declined, official data showed on Wednesday. Crude oil stocks increased by 3.3 million barrels in the week to June 2nd against the expectations of a decline of 3.5 million barrels, the Energy Information Agency reported. This is the first 10-week increase.This data surprised the analysts who thought the stocks showed steady progress towards a fall to the seasonal average levels.

The price of wheat in Chicago rose yesterday. A catalyst for the growth was red spring wheat again and the concerns about its development. Dry and hot weather in North Dakota where  half of this wheat is sown is a problem now. Similar is the situation in Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa, the northern parts of Missouri, Wisconsin and Illinois. Rainfall in the weekend is expected, but in a limited number of places and in insufficient quantity. However there will be an improvement in the condition of the crops and it will be evident in the coming weeks. In some places rainfall will come too late to recover much of the yield potential. Similar is the situation in the southern parts of Canada, but rainfall will also arrive there.

In the southern states of the United States, wheat harvest continues. Yields are good, but protein continues to move widely - more often in the lower parts of the range. However the yields are below last year's.

Yesterday, in Chicago cron rose, but it is due to the inertion of wheat. Export sales proved to be too weak and below expectations - 348,600 tonnes of old crop. We must emphasize that there are no conditions in the USA to harm the corn area, because the drought is not big enough  and not so prolonged. It is not expected that USDA will adjust the average US corn yield in the new season in its report today. This could only happen if there is  extreme drought, but there are none.

Yesterday China data showed that soybeans imports in May were 9.6 million tonnes or 25% more than in May 2016 and this is a record high achievement. This indicator comes on the backdrop of  a number of speeches about the delay in Chinese soybean imports. Export sales of US soybeans are within the normal range - 159,100 tonnes of old crop + 221,800 tonnes of new crop. The export was 221,800 tonnes, which is significantly  above the required level to reach USDA's annual forecast.

Besides in the US problems to to drought occur in northeastern parts of China. Forecasts indicate that no rainfall is expected in the next 10 days. In Canada it's raining in some places, others are dry. Rain is also necessary in Australia, where it is difficult to grow rapeseed, wheat and barley crops. The conditions in the central parts of Europe are dry.

Next week data on palm oil balance in Malaysia will be published. Stocks in the country are expected to fall by 1.3% to 1.58 million tonnes, production will grow by 5.5% over the previous year to 1.633 million tonnes, and exports by 13.6% to 1.46 million tonnes.

In the next week the weather in Russia will change. Until now the cold and wet weather will go to warm and dry. This will be a big plus for the crops because it will boost their development. It is expected to be raining again by the end of June and so far no moisture deficiency is seen. The accumulated moisture in the soil is an excellent prerequisite for a good crop even after rainfall is below the required level. There are no problems with the development of winter crops. Higher yields are not expected, but they are definitely not bad. So far more risks are present for the spring cultures that are sown later and are developing slowly due to the lack of enough heat and light. Areas where spring wheat is grown - Volga and Ural, will remain cold and wet for the next 10 days. We keep a close eye on these things and calculate prospects.

 

 CBOT (Chicago)         

  USD/mt

   +/-

Wheat 07.2017

 165.05

 +1.62

Corn 07.2017

 151.80

 +0.39

Soybeans 07.2017

 344.65

 +2.65

Soybean meal 07.2017

 337.42

 +1.32

 EURONEXT (Paris)

 EUR/mt  

  +/-

Wheat 09.2017

 170.25

 -1.75

Corn 08.2017

 175.25

 +2.50

Rapeseed 08.2017

 361.00

 +3.75

Rapeseed meal 09.2017

 194.00

 +1.00

 

Wheat prices - yesterday wheat futures in Chicago rose for most contracts to 4.5 cents / bushel. In the past marketing year, US export sales of wheat were 26,445 million tonnes. During the week 25.05 - 1.06.2017 export sales of US wheat - old crop, are 461 000 tonnes + 1 883 400 tonnes of transport from the old season. The export of wheat during the week was 470 933 tonnes. For 2016 - 2017  US wheat exports reached 26,512,800 tonnes at 19,473,100 tonnes in 2015-2016.

Soybean prices - yesterday soybeans in Chicago dropped by 5 - 8 cents / bushel. Export sales of soybeans were 159,134 tonnes of old crop (-79% compared to last week and -73.9% against last year) + 221,800 tonnes of new crop. China has cancelled contracts for 172,600 tonnes of soybeans of old crop. Soybeans exports reached 319 534 tonnes. Sales of soybeans meal were 84,900 tonnes of old crop+ 14,800 tonnes of new crop, and 124,300 tonnes of exports. Conab raised its forecast for soybeans crop in Brazil to 113.92 million tonnes at 113 million tonnes in its May report.

Corn prices - yesterday corn futures in Chicago rose to a minimum. Export sales reached 348,595 tonnes of old crop + 127,970 tonnes of new crop. Exports reach 1 213 800 tonnes. Since the beginning of the season corn exports from the US have been 43.8% higher than last year's. Conab raised its forecast for Brazil's corn crop in the current season to 96.6 million tonnes (92.8). China sold 474,845 tonnes of corn from state reserves, crop 2013, with a suggested quantity of 1.859 million tonnes.