EUR/USD index rose to 1.1422. WTI crude oil went down to 45.34 USD/barrel.

Oil prices declined very little on Thursday, finding support in stronger demand in the United States. Analysts however warn that saturation will continue to pull the markets down. Growth reflects the steady demand for fuel in the United States, where data from the American Petroleum Institute on Wednesday showed crude oil stocks dropped by 5.8 million barrels in the week to 30th June to 503.7 million barrels. Prices fell by about 4% on Wednesday due to the higher exports of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), despite its promise to reduce the output between January this year and March 2018 in support of prices."Contrary to the expectations, OPEC's total oil stocks are still over 3 billion barrels, and the recovery of Libyan and Nigerian supplies, along with the rapid return of US shale oil, would prevent a rapid balancing of stocks in the future," says Bank of America Merrill Lynch, adding that production is about to rise further.

Yesterday the wheat in the US has fallen. In some places small and unexpected rain fell in the northern states. It will not change the overall environment, but traders are always on the alert. And some profits had to be made. Precipitation is too late and on Monday we expect the condition (good and excellent) of the US spring wheat to be worsened by another 3% to the sinister 34%. In general, the conditions for wheat cultivation are not improving but deteriorating.

Informa Economics lowered its forecast for spring wheat in the US by only 0.38 million tonnes to 11.8 million tonnes. But other analysts are far more extreme with a forecast of 9.52 million tonnes. Informa Economics predicts that US winter wheat crop will be 34.8 million tonnes, which is 0.94 million tonnes above the USDA forecast. It is noteworthy that now the sales of winter wheat by the farmers are big. They sell straight from the field - in Kansas and Nebraska. Since the last auction in Egypt, there have been huge doubts that American wheat is not competitive on the global market. Undoubtedly, current US prices will fall. The question is where they will meet with the Black Sea's and wether they will stay there in the coming months. Wheat prices in the Black Sea region have not increased much in the last two weeks. This is due to the fact that Russian wheat is expected to be a lot again. The Russians now have good stocks and can direct much of their new crop for export. The quality of their wheat is also expected to be good.

On Monday, USDA improved slightly the estimates for the condition of the  US corn. Traders expected a drop in the ratings. This is likely to happen on Monday because rainfall in the corn belt does not seem to be much. Informa raised its forecast for US corn crops by 0.23 million tonnes to 359.8 million tonnes as a motive for growth were the additional crops announced by the USDA in recent days.

Informa raised its forecast for the average soybeans yield in the US by 0.1 bushels / acre to 47.9 bushels / acre. The forecast is a surprise for the market. Clearly, rainfall has improved the prospects for the crops.

How big will be the average US corn yield? There is a broad consensus that a record high of  174.6 bushels / acre will not be reached. USDA expect 170.7 bushels / acre, but other analysts less. Projections fall to 165 bushels / acre. With a yield of 165 bushels / acre, the US corn crop will be 348.7 million tonnes. That amount will be enough for everything, but stocks will be below the psychological limit of 50.8 million tonnes to 48.36 million tonnes. In China, drought destroys much of the corn crop and it will drop to 215 million tonnes from 219.55 million tonnes in 2016. Problems with moisture exist in Ukraine and the EU.

For now, markets are looking for a stable level. I suppose it will be reached soon. Certainly the Black Sea wheat will go up one more time, but initially +5 USD / tonne will be safe in the next 1-2 weeks.

Corn price – yesterday corn futures in Chicago remained stable with a rise to 1.5 cents / bushel. During the week, ethanol production in the US rose by 1,000 barrels per day to 1,014 million barrels per day. US ethanol stocks  dropped by 267,000 barrels. Export sales of US corn are expected to amount to 350,000 - 550,000 tonnes of old crop + 0 - 200,000 tonnes of new crop. Informa prognoses corn yield in the US in 2017 at 169.7 bushels / acre, and a crop of 359.8 million tonnes. The crop in Brazil has increased by 1 million tonnes to 97 million tonnes. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentina's corn crop is harvested at 53%.

Wheat price - Chicago wheat futures reported big losses yesterday. Export sales of wheat from the US are expected at the level of 300,000 - 500,000 tonnes from the crop 2017 - 2018. Informa predicts that the winter wheat crop in the US will be 32.53 million tonnes and from spring - 11.8 million tonnes.

Soybeans price - yesterday soybeans futures in Chicago rose by 2.25 - 5.25 cents / bushel. Export sales of US soybeans will be in the range of 200,000 - 400,000 tonnes + 50,000 - 250,000 tonnes. Sales of soybeans meal will be 25,000 - 250,000 tonnes and soybeans oil 8,000 - 27,000 tonnes. Informa estimates the average soybeans yield in the US at 47.9 bushels / acre and the crop at 115.68 million tonnes. France will limit the use of palm oil in biofuels.