Wheat

Chicago’s July 2025 wheat contract opened Tuesday’s session at $5.37 per bushel, marking a decline of 15 ¾ cents. The market continues to struggle amid harvest delays and deteriorating crop conditions across the U.S. The USDA reported winter wheat 96% headed, but only 19% harvested — well behind the seasonal average of 28%. Condition ratings slipped to 49% good/excellent, highlighting further stress, particularly in Kansas and Oklahoma. Meanwhile, spring wheat ratings dropped 3%, led by significant setbacks in Minnesota and South Dakota. Speculators have slightly trimmed their short positions, but pressure remains with the EU also reporting significantly lower soft wheat exports year-over-year.

Corn

Chicago’s July 2025 corn contract began the day at $4.18 per bushel, down 1 ¼ cents. Despite a sizable export sale to Mexico (630,000 MT), corn prices continue to falter due to declining crop conditions and macro pressure from the oil market. USDA pegged corn emergence at 97%, and silking slightly ahead of schedule. However, the crop condition dropped to 70% good/excellent. Western Corn Belt states saw notable declines, including Colorado and Texas. Managed money further deepened their short positions, nearing 185,000 contracts. Brazil’s June corn exports were revised down by ANEC, contributing to a bearish sentiment.

Soybeans

The July 2025 soybean contract opened at $10.49½ per bushel, falling 9¼ cents. Despite steady crop condition ratings at 66% good/excellent, market expectations had priced in improvements. States like Nebraska and North Dakota posted sharp declines. Planting is nearly complete, but blooming progress remains slow. Speculators expanded their net long positions last week, but Brazil’s robust June export forecast of 14.99 MMT (up from 14.36 MMT) adds weight to the downside pressure. Soymeal and soyoil both showed midday losses, contributing to a broader bearish trend.

Key Developments Impacting the Global Grain Market Today

Escalating conflict in the Middle East is having a dramatic impact on global fertilizer logistics. Urea production in key supplying countries such as Iran and Egypt has come to a halt. Brazil, heavily reliant on fertilizer imports, is facing price hikes, with domestic urea prices rising 25% year-over-year. The uncertainty is already influencing trade behavior and may affect corn and soybean planting decisions for the 2025/26 season.

Charter rates for shipping through the Hormuz Strait have doubled, and freight rates have surged by 30% in 10 days. The risk of an unprecedented supply chain crisis — potentially worse than the pandemic — is looming if the conflict escalates.

Hot and dry weather is forecasted across North America for July, heightening risks to corn and soybean yields. Meanwhile, southern Brazil is under threat from a cold spell that may affect corn in Paraná and surrounding areas. Coffee crops are safe for now, but frost risks remain localized.

Heavy rainfall has caused widespread flooding in southern and central China, especially parts of the North China Plain. This poses risks to regional grain production and distribution.

European Union crop monitor MARS raised the EU’s soft wheat yield outlook slightly due to southern Europe, but warned of yield stress in northern regions due to dryness. France and the Benelux are particularly at risk as the grain-filling stage proceeds under dry skies.

Ukraine’s wheat harvest is forecast to drop by 3% to 21.74 million tons. Export potential is estimated at 15 million tons amid reduced EU import quotas and growing competition from Russian wheat in key markets such as Turkey and Asia.

USDA’s weekly export inspections show mixed performance: corn inspections rose year-over-year to 1.477 million tons, while wheat and soybeans both declined. Germany and Mexico were the leading destinations for soybeans and corn, respectively.

Palm oil exports from Indonesia dropped sharply in April, falling to 1.78 million tons from 2.88 million in March. Domestic consumption and biodiesel use also declined. Meanwhile, inventories rose substantially to 3.05 million tons.

In Brazil’s wheat market, import parity prices — especially for Argentine wheat — remain more attractive than domestic prices, causing mills to favor foreign supply. However, overall prices remain stable despite small regional fluctuations.

Louis Dreyfus announced plans to reopen a long-idled grain terminal in Indiana by 2026. This will enhance export capabilities through the Great Lakes, though the facility represents a small share of total U.S. grain exports.

India’s monsoon season is slightly ahead of schedule, with rainfall 2% above normal. However, regional disparities remain, with the northwest much wetter and the east lagging behind.

The U.S. egg market saw a 5.6% year-over-year decline in May production, led by a 6.4% fall in table egg output. While unrelated to grains directly, this could reflect shifting demand for feed grains like corn and soymeal.

In summary, today’s trading environment is heavily influenced by geopolitical risks, fertilizer costs, disruptive weather forecasts, and declining crop conditions. Market participants are closely monitoring developments in Brazil, Ukraine, and the broader weather outlook across major producing regions.