Chicago Market Snapshot – Friday, 19 December
Wheat starts Friday softer after Thursday’s hard-red-led rebound, with winter wheats easing while spring wheat holds steadier. Early Chicago trade has Mar ’26 CBOT wheat indicated about $5.07/bu (last close $5.07 3/4, down ~3/4 cent early), as the market balances improved U.S. export sales against expanding global supply signals from Argentina, Russia and EU revisions.
Corn opens Friday fractionally lower following Thursday’s recovery, but demand remains the key stabilizer. Mar ’26 CBOT corn is indicated about $4.44/bu (last close $4.44 1/2, down ~1/2 cent early), with traders tracking record-pace export commitments and the continued pull from the ethanol sector even as outside-market tone and late-year positioning stay in focus.
Soybeans begin Friday mixed-to-lower, still under pressure from weak year-on-year sales performance and heavy supply expectations. Jan ’26 CBOT soybeans are indicated about $10.51–10.52/bu (last close $10.52 1/4, down ~3/4 cent early), while the market digests another Sinograin auction with a notably lower clearance rate—reinforcing the message that domestic Chinese supplies remain comfortable.
Global drivers and key headlines shaping today’s session
Washington shifted the policy conversation again, after a senior USDA official signaled that a second round of farm aid is unlikely due to budget constraints, even as crop-specific payment rates from the recently announced $12B package are expected next week. For grain markets, the headline matters because it tempers expectations that fresh support will materially change acreage decisions or cash-flow behavior beyond the near term.
China remained central to soybean sentiment, but the tone softened as auction demand cooled. In Sinograin’s third December auction, only 32.7% of 550,000 MT offered was sold (about 179,702 MT) at 3,750.83 yuan/MT, down from much stronger clearance in earlier rounds—signaling weaker buying interest as the state stockpiler rotates inventories to make room for incoming U.S. cargoes.
At the same time, trade-flow expectations stayed active: Reuters-cited trade sources estimated China has bought more than 7 MMT of U.S. soybeans since October, moving toward a 12 MMT target referenced by U.S. officials. The market read-through is mixed—supportive for forward demand visibility, but still constrained by large domestic stocks and ongoing auction supply.
Export data gave corn the cleanest demand narrative. Weekly U.S. export sales for Nov. 27 showed the top soybean buyer was China (509k tons) and the top corn buyer was Japan (458k tons), while corn export commitments were described as a record buying pace versus last year—an anchor that continues to offset otherwise supply-heavy global messaging.
Supply headlines stayed broadly bearish for wheat. Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lifted its wheat estimate 6.3% to 27.1 MMT—and left the door open to further upward revisions—adding to the perception of ample Southern Hemisphere availability that keeps rallies difficult to sustain.
Europe added to the “bigger crop” theme, with the European Commission nudging total EU grain output for 2025/26 up to 287.2 MMT, including slightly higher forecasts for soft wheat, barley and corn. Even small upward revisions matter in a low-margin, high-competition export environment because they reinforce seller confidence and cap price recovery attempts.
Russia also contributed to the weight of supply: officials put 2025 grain harvest above 147 MMT (bunker weight) with higher quality than last year, while SovEcon nudged its Russia wheat crop estimate higher to 88.8 MMT and kept its 2026 wheat crop view at 83.8 MMT with “no material weather risks” evident so far.
Weather risk shifted from immediate threats to forward-looking positioning. Forecast guidance highlighted a warm, dry U.S. pattern through most of late December that is broadly favorable for winter wheat near term, but a dry January outlook alongside returning cold risks could raise winterkill concerns in the Southern Plains and Midwest—especially with soil moisture already slipping in parts of the Plains.
Logistics and cross-commodity signals stayed in the mix. USDA noted extreme cold has snarled Mississippi River barge traffic, while weekly barge grain shipments jumped to 888k tons with higher barge rates—relevant for basis and near-term export execution. Meanwhile, palm oil weakened overnight and Indonesia began B50 biodiesel road tests (aiming for H2 2026), keeping vegoil/biofuel linkages in play for oilseeds and spreads.