Chicago Market Snapshot
Wheat starts Wednesday under pressure, extending Tuesday’s slide as the market continues to price in large global exporter supplies and a still-benign near-term weather backdrop. In early Chicago trade, Mar ’26 CBOT wheat is indicated around $5.08 1/2/bu (Tuesday close $5.09 1/2, down another ~1 cent early).
Corn opens Wednesday narrowly firmer after Tuesday’s modest decline, but sentiment stays cautious with wheat weakness spilling over and energy markets still a variable. Mar ’26 CBOT corn is indicated around $4.37 1/2/bu (Tuesday close $4.36 1/2, up ~1 cent early).
Soybeans begin Wednesday slightly lower, with the market “giving back” the earlier China-driven rally as technical gaps are filled and policy headlines reassert themselves. Jan ’26 CBOT soybeans are indicated around $10.61 1/4/bu (Tuesday close $10.62 3/4, down ~1 1/2 cents early).
Global Drivers and Key Headlines Shaping Today’s Session
China’s reserve management is the central soybean headline again. Beijing has already run multiple auctions since last Thursday, selling roughly 720,000 tons out of more than 1 million tons offered, with another 550,000-ton auction scheduled for Friday—an active rotation that can cap rallies even as China increases U.S. buying tied to the late-October trade truce.
Biofuel policy uncertainty remains an overhang for the oils complex and, by extension, soybeans and crush economics. The U.S. EPA expects to finalize 2026–27 biofuel blending mandates in Q1 2026, pushing clarity into next year and keeping parts of the market hesitant on forward contracting, hedging, and investment decisions.
Black Sea logistics risk has re-intensified: Ukraine’s farmers’ union says wheat exports are being curtailed after heavy Russian attacks forced shutdowns at some terminals, leaving port operations at about 20% of capacity and complicating storage and rail logistics amid power outages. That injects fresh uncertainty into nearby export flows—even if Ukraine’s ministry has said it does not plan to restrict wheat exports this season.
At the same time, alternative origins continue to compete aggressively. Kazakhstan reports new-crop grain exports at 3.4 million tons so far (about +20% y/y) and pegs full-season export potential near 13 million tons, reinforcing the “ample supply” narrative weighing on global wheat tone.
Europe’s flow picture is mixed: EU soft-wheat exports since July 1 are 10.5 million tons, about 2% lower y/y as of Dec. 14, while barley exports are sharply higher and corn imports lower—signals that matter for regional spreads, feedgrain substitution, and export competitiveness.
South American weather remains a key swing factor for Q1 pricing, with forecasters flagging that January dryness could become the primary risk for corn and soybeans in southern Brazil and the Argentine Pampas, even as December rains may reduce stress in Mato Grosso, Paraguay, and northern Pampas areas.
In the U.S., a warming trend into late December is broadly supportive for winter wheat survival, but dryness is quietly becoming the bigger watch item—especially as warmer, drier conditions persist in parts of the Plains and can slowly erode soil moisture and winter hardiness.
Finally, keep an eye on “secondary” drivers that still move grains through cross-commodity channels: Malaysia cut its crude palm oil export tax to 9.5% for January shipments, a headline that can influence global vegoil pricing and relative demand for soyoil.