Wheat

Chicago wheat futures for July 2025 opened Wednesday at $5.35¾ per bushel, continuing to slide after Tuesday’s 17-cent drop. The global wheat market remains under stress as winter wheat contracts from Chicago (SRW) and Kansas City (HRW) both faced substantial losses earlier this week. European soft wheat exports continue to lag, reaching just 19.93 million tons year-to-date, compared to 30.53 million a year earlier. Meanwhile, Sovecon revised Russia’s wheat crop forecast upward to 83 million tons. Cool and wet conditions across key Russian growing regions like the Ural and Volga are boosting production prospects, while the U.S. remains concerned about persistent rains and localized storm damage that could delay harvest progress.

Corn

Corn futures for July 2025 began the day at $4.16¼ per bushel, after falling 3 cents at Tuesday’s close. Despite a USDA-confirmed sale of 630,000 MT of U.S. corn to Mexico and beneficial rains in the U.S. Corn Belt, bearish sentiment continues to weigh on prices. Open interest in corn rose significantly, suggesting increased speculative positioning. The national average cash price sits at $3.93¼, while crude oil losses are adding cost-side pressure. Brazil is again the big disruptor: Agroconsult raised its forecast for second-crop corn by over 10 million tons to an astounding 123.3 million tons, bringing the total 2024–25 corn crop to 150.3 million tons—far above USDA estimates. Brazil now plans to export 44.5 million tons this season, intensifying competition globally.

Soybeans

The July 2025 soybean contract opened Wednesday at $10.46¾ per bushel, following a 12-cent dip on Tuesday. Soymeal and soyoil also weakened in line with falling crude oil. Even though Brazil raised its soybean export forecast for June to 14.99 million tons, the market remains cautious as U.S. weather models predict widespread rains across soybean-growing regions, alleviating some crop stress. However, cash bean prices are declining, and open interest is rising as speculators adjust their positions. While Brazil's performance sets a high benchmark, U.S. crop progress and upcoming USDA acreage reports are likely to influence the next market moves.

Key Developments Driving Today’s Global Grain Market

A historic corn harvest in Brazil is reshaping the global corn trade. Agroconsult now expects the country’s total crop to hit 150.3 million tons, with exports reaching 44.5 million tons—19% higher than last season. This adds more pressure on U.S. exporters already struggling with falling prices and mounting stocks.

The wheat sector remains caught in a downward spiral, with Russian production estimates climbing slightly to 83 million tons. Simultaneously, the EU continues to lag in export pace, highlighting the challenge of international demand saturation and aggressive competition from Black Sea suppliers.

Russian grain and vegoil exports to Iran are expected to grow sharply. Rusagrotrans forecasts Iranian wheat imports from Russia could triple to 3–4 million tons, while corn and barley imports may jump to 3.6 million tons. This shift is facilitated by the lifting of trade restrictions and growing geopolitical ties.

USDA stock and acreage surveys are due, with analysts predicting stable planting figures for corn and soybeans but lower corn stockpiles year-on-year—down approximately 372 million bushels. Wheat stocks, however, are seen rising 20% to 836 million bushels.

China is seeing heavy rains across the southern North China Plain, which have erased soil moisture deficits and could help summer crops like corn and soybeans. These improvements reduce potential weather threats in one of the world’s largest grain-consuming countries.

Russia is anticipating improved spring wheat conditions thanks to recent rains and moderate temperatures in Ural and Siberian districts. The country’s spring wheat yield potential has been raised to 2.03 t/ha, adding to its exportable surplus.

Weather remains a mixed bag in North America. While severe storms caused crop damage in North Dakota, scattered rainfall helped relieve drought in Montana. However, persistent rain and unstable temperatures across the Corn Belt could challenge both planting and harvesting windows.

In the energy space, ethanol production in the U.S. is projected to dip slightly, and stockpiles are expected to remain stable. These trends could impact corn demand tied to biofuel markets, especially if crude oil continues its downward spiral.

Soybean exports from Brazil remain strong, with ANEC projecting June totals of 14.99 million tons. Soymeal exports are expected to reach 1.92 million tons, while corn exports from Brazil are softening slightly compared to previous estimates.

Malaysia reaffirmed its commitment to deforestation-free palm oil trade. The latest trade deal with the European Free Trade Association strengthens market access for certified Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil, reinforcing global sustainability trends.

Senator Josh Hawley reignited debate on monopolies in the U.S. meatpacking industry, specifically naming Tyson Foods. While not directly grain-related, this scrutiny could shape broader agricultural policy and feed demand dynamics.

Japan lifted all restrictions on Brazilian chicken imports, resuming purchases from areas previously affected by bird flu. The move could bolster soybean and corn demand for feed use, given Brazil’s dominant role in global poultry trade.

Finally, India’s monsoon has arrived slightly ahead of schedule and remains 2% above average rainfall overall. However, regional disparities persist, with the northwest experiencing excess rains and the east still lagging—posing potential yield risks for the coming months.